Discussion: What is required to succeed as an AP in Blackjack?

[Three]

Here is one question that I haven't answered and hope a more experience (since almost all on here are) player will help. You plan to play an 800 hand sesion, you have an EV of 80 cents per hand given your spread and rule set, pentration and strategy variables. You sit down at the table and in the first four shoes, blow it up with large bets and win $1400 or more than twice your ev at 700 hands. Make sense to go home or stay?

Planning to play 8 hours is not a good idea for most AP's unless you can hit multiple casinos in that time. Yes you should leave but not because you are way above EV. You should leave because you have shown the casino you max bet cycle a bunch of times. If you are at a bet level that they may not care about it isn't as much of a factor but you don't want to give them too much to evaluate your play on to see if you are a threat. That means win or lose after showing them your min to max bet a few shoes it is a good idea to at least take a break if not leave. A skill you will hopefully develop is evaluating the reaction to your play by the casino. After enough visits you should have a pretty good idea of what they will tolerate.

So what do you do, consider mission well accomplished and get the heck out of dodge (knowing that by missing 700 hands you can easily go down by the same amount in one shoe and have less hands to balance it out or play the hands you came to play knowing that at the end of the year you budgeted 100k hands and that is what really matters?

What I would do would depend on what was going on in the casino. I have played marathon sessions with a dealer giving great pen in a place that pen is usually not so great. I have played marathons against dealers that were making mistakes of doing other things that would up my win rate. If there was nothing special my assessment of heat would be the biggest factor on whether or not I would leave. If the conditions deteriorated like got crowded, a slow dealer or players or the pen went downhill I might leave based on that. If I needed to show more losses due to having a lot of winning sessions I might take a small loss and either take a break or move to another casino. A small loss and a small win are about the same thing but a loss looks better in their system. It is all one big session and they see your play as you won this many times and lost this many. Having the numbers of wins and losses look good can depend on when you break your sessions. Ideally you want nice sized wins and small losses.

Is there a point above your ev where it makes sense to walk away from a session, planned trip or even month or year of playing?

In case you are missing the point the answer is NO. The decision to leave or stay has nothing to do with being above EV. If you are BR challenged it may make sense to continually grow your BR from trip to trip as you learn and get better at your craft but as it is all one big session thus mathematically it doesn't matter. Leave negative EV and play through plus EV. Leave or stay based on the strength of the opportunity and heat factors.

When I had a small BR I caught a promo tat ran every so often that gave me an advantage off the top of the deck. I would be able to green chip rather than my usual red chip at the same RoR. I would be up almost as much as my BR and leave with a significant but smaller profit at the end of the promo period. I often wondered like you do that I should have cashed out with a huge win but in retrospect my only regret is I didn't play more. It was both fun and scary with a minimum bet 2.5 to 5 times my usual minimum bet. I have rarely gotten an off the top advantage again. Now I know you aren't talking about anything special to keep you there but I think I defined pretty well what your decision to stay or leave should be based on. If there is no special need for logging a win that day then base the decision on what I outlined.

[Oneoffthecount]

Thanks. I have allot of respect for you experienced players and your response makes lots of sense. At least I didn't ask what system is the best or what to do on a 15 vs 10, lol. I'm trying to not be your typical newbie! Neuances especially heat are something I really need to learn.

[Sharky]

...you would have to think you are going to drop money by staying...

this is utter nonsense...the cards have no memory, or compassion for that matter...lol

anyways..my spread likely would require me to exit after a 'big' win...can't go back to that table min after betting so high...just go elsewhere

[Exoter175]

I appreciate your feedback. But

Remain Calm
Don't forget to smile
Never piss into the wind

could be narrow down to one word "act". Expert blackjack players develop good acts when they play blackjack.

Ehhhh, I think you could break that down into "remain calm" and "act". Remaining calm covers so many different things like taking a loss, not worrying about "heat" or your "perception of heat" when laying a larger bet out, etc. I certainly see where you could make your case for it all being part of the Act, but I think there's a lot to be said about remaining calm in ALL aspects of life that the point there couldn't be lessened.

No, you keep BINGO - you've earned it. But you might consider adding item 6 to your repertoire. Speaking from experience, very sound advice. lol Actually, all 6 suggestions are vital. And not just in blackjack, but business and life.

And I think that right there is where you are losing KJ. As a full time AP, blackjack (or AP plays) ARE life. I spend so much time running after them and making my living on them, that I'd be screwed without them. While there is a much BIGGER approach to Life that you take, as you are far more philosophical than most on this forum, the "nitty gritty" of it all is that for a full time APBJ, it IS life.

Also, We'll see about keeping BINGO!

Moses, you are probably the most ridiculous poster in this board.
Your knowledge on advantage play is ZERO, but somehow you keep babling with endless posts and somehow manage to make people (some people) believe you actually know what you are talking about.
It is quite funny actually.

KJ is right: you have NO CLUE of what it takes to make it as an AP, in blackjack or any other game.
And since this is an AP board and this is a thread that discuss just that, maybe you should shut your trap and not come down on a guy that actually know what he's talking about.
There are probably 8 or 10 guys in this forum that CAN ACTUALLY answer that question, and theres no doubt KJ is one of them.

You talk about a slow death? About AP not being worthwhile?
Last year only I probably made more money in casinos than what you made in your entire life.
Get a clue you freakin idiot.

Are you kidding me Bjarg? You're going to call Moses the most ridiculous poster when you have T3 and ZK still posting here? Not that I'm trying to cast stones or anything, you know I respect KJ and Moses very much, but they both have a dog in this fight AND a pot to piss in. The issue is that they don't connect well because KJ does things one way, Moses does them the complete opposite, and they both (hilariously) have two very different approaches to "life" and "philosophy". These two guys are like oil and water, but I wouldn't be so quick to attack the guy about his opinion of another forum member for their own personal reasons.

Will you be attacking me next because I've made it painstakingly obvious that I detest T3, while respecting his mind on APBJ mathematics?

Everyone:

via Imgflip Meme Maker

Thank you for this haha.

People make waaaaay too many assumptions on this board. I won't bother pointing them out as it is not my place to do so but people should stop assuming they know more about posters than they do. The ones I actually know the truth about the assumptions are usually about as wrong as they can get.

Pot calling kettle black, here. (to the highest degree I think I've ever seen on an internet forum).

All of this seems good advice. After being laid off and not finding work for a year, I'm taking 50k as a bankroll and giving it a shot. Here is my checklist

I play HiLo Sweet 16 and Fab 4 and bet correct 98.5 percent of the time according to my CV Black Jack software. I've played a cuople of hundred thousand hands. I'm integrating camoflage into my game. Plan to play 20 to 1 on a $25 table wonding out when count is less than 2 and I lose two in a row. I find that many times, I make it through the end of the shoe this way, without loosing money and often make money by winning on balance for the stay.

Here is one question that I haven't answered and hope a more experience (since almost all on here are) player will help. You plan to play an 800 hand sesion, you have an EV of 80 cents per hand given your spread and rule set, pentration and strategy variables. You sit down at the table and in the first four shoes, blow it up with large bets and win $1400 or more than twice your ev at 700 hands. Make sense to go home or stay?

If you stay with a WR at something like 20%, you would have to think you are going to drop money by staying. However, if you are doing this for a living you believe that over the long term the more hands you play the more money you make. There is nothing to say the next 700 hands wont make money at the rate of your EV but you also have a sure thing in your hands. Also, by leaving quick you would run less risk of heat I would think. So what do you do, consider mission well accomplished and get the heck out of dodge (knowing that by missing 700 hands you can easily go down by the same amount in one shoe and have less hands to balance it out or play the hands you came to play knowing that at the end of the year you budgeted 100k hands and that is what really matters? Is there a point above your ev where it makes sense to walk away from a session, planned trip or even month or year of playing?

First off let me stop you at your sentence about your planned game.

Two things.

First: If you spread 20-1 on a $25 table your career will last less than an hour
Second: If you wong out at "Less than 2 or after losing two in a row", to which I perceive to be TC2 until you clarify further, you will lose a lot of money. Not just because you'll be woning OUT at an advantage on almost all games, but because of this arbitrary "two in a row" rule you have there.

Let me put this to you plainly and profanely. It doesn't fucking matter how many times you lose in a row, if you are playing at an advantage you don't stop. Eventually you'll have seen enough hands for it all to work out, but if you start counting yourself out at two in a row, you're going to get crushed playing blackjack as a career. APBJ is a very, very FINE game. And by fine, I mean your room for error is so small, so minute, that if you make some kind of bonehead move like stopping your play while at an advantage, you could potentially be setting yourself up for desaster that you'll never recover from.

[Exoter175]

Well Thanks Ex Man...I think. What is the world did you have for dinner tonight? A moutain lion? just kidding. You know, KJ and Bjarg are probably more right than wrong. I think the word "living" can be taken various ways. My money concerns are more related to investments and sports bets. However, I spend a great deal of time on blackjack. Sort of like a golfer. If I'm going to play then I must bring my A game. I think I'm addicted to winning as my son would say efficiency. Certain things drive me nuts that the average person would never notice. In my mind, from a sports background, one must be efficient in order to win. For instance, the other day I had a quarter property tax bill due of $400. After about a couple of hours, they'd paid that bill, bought my lunch, and an ice cream. Seemed like a pretty good deal.

Unlike APs, I tend to look at what I want to accomplish each day or session etc., Sort of the old one game at a time approach as opposed to the whole season. So I really don't know or care if I'm an AP or not. Actually, I don't "know" of anyone that is...it seems like a self professed title. But if I have to bet I'd put a large chunk of cash down that one could reverse the letters for BJarg. PA. Just kidding guys. I wish you all the best variance and good fortune.

Well, there's plenty of successful "one game at a time" guys out there. I think the issue you suffer with KJ and to an extent BJarg, are the philosophical approaches to life and "the game". To KJ blackjack is life because everything he has and provides for, is dependent on that game. Guys like you and I don't "depend" on that approach nearly as much, which allows ourselves to "open up" our time a bit more. Though, who am I kidding? I probably play more than KJ now. Even so, though he has a giant nest egg, BR, and rental properties, he's motivated differently than you or I are. I've got a huge nestegg at a young age, a large enough bankroll to last me quite some time, and the energy and ambition to push this as far as I can without getting caught, for as long as I can. I get the feeling sooner rather than later I'll have to scale back my hours a little, but I've settled into a happy "norm" right now, and I imagine KJ's been there for YEEEEEEEEEARS now, so obviously its workin well for him, and in all honesty, he's probably the most qualified to answer on the behalf of all APBJ's, despite the HUUUUUUUUGE differences in philosophy, strategy, and cover between the games of the players.

Personally, I just don't see the "hate" between all of you, because we're all beating to the beat of a different drum anyways.

[Goatlife]

I am not "hating" on anyone. I need to stop getting caught up in these types of discussions.

But for the record: I don't have a giant nest egg (I only wish) and I don't have rental propertie(s). I did purchase a second home early last year, thinking I could make a quick profit on what I perceived as a property selling below market value. That turned out to be a huge mistake, not because I was wrong about the value part, just because it is hard to turn around and sell a property for significantly more than it recently sold for. Everyone can see the recent sale price and it immediately raises questions, as to why it sold so low previously and what makes it more valuable now, only a short time later.

So my lack of knowledge and understanding of the situation caused me to get into the landlord business (which I have no desire to be in) for this one property for the last year. Fortunately I had a good tenant (AP from another site) and it all worked out as well as could be expected and I now have an agreement to sell the property to this individual (closing this month). I expect this will be my only venture into the landlord, rental property, business.

this is exactly why i prefer diversified baskets of equities because they are truly passive for the buy and hold person. There is no "the rent is late, my shitter is clogged, i need it fixed ect." Honestly, equities don't even start to compare with the returns of advantage play but not many here are willing to play up to quarter kelly of there bankroll once it gets large enough because they will burn out of markets quickly as the bankroll keeps growing. KJ if your so gun hoe about realestate (im not but have no opinion on it). have you ever thought of looking into purchasing a "Pulbically traded REIT". You can collect your dividends just like rents and if you need the money you can get your money within 3 days after the securities settle.

Honestly, since you don't play the full value of your bankroll you should probably looking into making a diversifed portfolio of securities for the long hall and if your bankroll takes a dip to negative flux you know you can always sell it. For exajmple say we have another 2008 and your 100k all equity porfolio dips to 60k and then recovers ina couple years passively, is it really that much different them dumping 60-70 max bets where you have to bust your ass to make the money back, you know your going to get it back just takes time. Just some food for thought, obviously not everyone agrees with this but i think its way better then realestate owning (if your not handy and you don't realy have much experience with it)

Full disclosure i have zero of my own money invested cause i play to my full bankroll to get more growth, the day i stop doing that is when ill implement some of these things said here.


this is not an opinion to buy securities but VIG is a great diversified ETF with an expense ratio of 0.10. You need no financial advisor and if you just invested in this and closed your eyes you probably would be fine of the long haul. Look at what it owns http://portfolios.morningstar.com/fu...culture=en-USf

this is not a diversifed portfolio but you see how easy it becomes.. just call vangaurd and ask them to help you, there the cheapest and best value for your dollar around.

[bjarg]

I too am sitting 100% on the sidelines in anticipation of another 2008.

Care to elaborate on that?

[bjarg]

Ok, but when you say this: "I too am sitting 100% on the sidelines in anticipation of another 2008."
Do you say it because you have reasons to believe it is in fact going to happen (in the near future)?
Or are you simply saying you will stay put until it does happen eventually (for reasons not related to anything that is happening today)?

[Oneoffthecount]

Exoter. Forgive me for not being accurate in my post. I'm wonding out after TC is -2, with two straight losses. I realize that wonging our with the advantage wouldn't make you the sharpest pencil in the box.

Yep the spread is a problem, I have gotten that message. I plan to make first bet at the level of a 2, versus the $25 min. I'm trying to disguise my 20 spread as a 5 spread. If I win I will consider myself having a little cover dollars to spend, if not will follow count and my ramp. Plan to show my max bet a max of two time before leaving for another casino. On my BR, approx 50k, separate from living expenses my EV per hand is about 60 cents, according to CVCX. About $48 bucks an hour at 80 hands. I don't understand how I could move to a smaller spread and still make a viable amount of money on a $25 table. Thanks again for your time, not sure if you or any of the other more experienced players might be open to an email versus forum with no pressure to respond to enlighten me. I'm sure my 101 level questions might bore the crowd.

I appreciate you taking the time to lend your experience to a guy who is just starting out. I don't doubt your experience but can't see the avenue I should take versus a large spread, while still making money. Perhaps my expectations are just too high?

[ohbehave]

Thats a much improved plan. However your numbers look like you've simmed your pen at 4.5/6. Check the sim with deeper pen, 5/6 or more. See how much stronger that game is.

[Oneoffthecount]

ohbehave-

Thank you for your response. I live in the Northeast, from what I've seen most shoes are eight deck. I was using 6.15/8. I'm not sure what a good benchmark for pen would be on eight deck, I've also never seen a six deck game near me. I was hoping to be adopted by a more experienced player than flaunt my ignorance in public forem before I asked someone what was realistic for eight deck and six deck. I can give you deets if you are open to an email on ramp and play characteristics using HILO Sweet 16 and Fab 4. Will you be my mommy? KJ?

[ohbehave]

Happy to help however I can but I'm not one of the more experienced here. Regarding pen, deeper improves the numbers. I'm not in an 8-deck region but in the few places that do deal 8 decks I've found 7/8 pen. Would think you could find the same in your area.

[Exoter175]

I am not "hating" on anyone. I need to stop getting caught up in these types of discussions.

But for the record: I don't have a giant nest egg (I only wish) and I don't have rental propertie(s). I did purchase a second home early last year, thinking I could make a quick profit on what I perceived as a property selling below market value. That turned out to be a huge mistake, not because I was wrong about the value part, just because it is hard to turn around and sell a property for significantly more than it recently sold for. Everyone can see the recent sale price and it immediately raises questions, as to why it sold so low previously and what makes it more valuable now, only a short time later.

So my lack of knowledge and understanding of the situation caused me to get into the landlord business (which I have no desire to be in) for this one property for the last year. Fortunately I had a good tenant (AP from another site) and it all worked out as well as could be expected and I now have an agreement to sell the property to this individual (closing this month). I expect this will be my only venture into the landlord, rental property, business.

My mistake KJ, somehow I was under the impression that the second home was to be rented out as passive income. As for the "hating" thing, I suppose we could rephrase that to "arguing with a lot of intensity", of course, it could just be me watching two guys I admire quite a bit, argue about each other so intensely.

Exoter. Forgive me for not being accurate in my post. I'm wonding out after TC is -2, with two straight losses. I realize that wonging our with the advantage wouldn't make you the sharpest pencil in the box.

Yep the spread is a problem, I have gotten that message. I plan to make first bet at the level of a 2, versus the $25 min. I'm trying to disguise my 20 spread as a 5 spread. If I win I will consider myself having a little cover dollars to spend, if not will follow count and my ramp. Plan to show my max bet a max of two time before leaving for another casino. On my BR, approx 50k, separate from living expenses my EV per hand is about 60 cents, according to CVCX. About $48 bucks an hour at 80 hands. I don't understand how I could move to a smaller spread and still make a viable amount of money on a $25 table. Thanks again for your time, not sure if you or any of the other more experienced players might be open to an email versus forum with no pressure to respond to enlighten me. I'm sure my 101 level questions might bore the crowd.

I appreciate you taking the time to lend your experience to a guy who is just starting out. I don't doubt your experience but can't see the avenue I should take versus a large spread, while still making money. Perhaps my expectations are just too high?

Even TC-2 might not be the greatest route to go depending on the rules, pen, and # of decks. On top of that, "two straight losses" is far too arbitrary, and will result in hurting your "long game" quite a bit. The same way that a "stop win" and "stop loss" can hurt you considerably in the long run.

As for your spread, its far too high in relation to heat for the denomination you plan to play, and far too high as a general rule of thumb if longevity is something you strive for. If your plan is to burn every casino down just once, sure, go for that large of a spread and have a hay day. If you're looking for longevity, though, you're going to have to scout the best rules against the fastest/deepest penetration dealers you can find, and keep to a 1-8 or 1-10 spread and not much more over that, and just rotate the casinos and shifts and you'll do just fine.

Far too many people I've listened to, talked to, or read about have jumped into counting or are "new" to counting with this idea that they can start with a 50k bankroll and just burn the casinos down to the ground without any recourse, and that just isn't the case in this day and age.

Honestly, the first few steps I'd take towards approaching your goals are identifying how far you'd like to travel, and then identify the available rules within that radius of available casinos, and then further scout the penetration and dealers for pen/hph and then decide if Longevity or maximum EV is your goal. From there, I believe we can more accurately give you a plan of attack to start with that will best suit you. As it is right now, I imagine you'd be tossed out pretty quick, especially so if you played where I play.