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Thread: Explaining the mathematics to a curious friend

  1. #1


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    Explaining the mathematics to a curious friend

    The other day my friend told me he was interested in trying to count cards and asked me to explain to him what sort of returns he could expect and provide some reasoning rather than trust me it works. So I tried to explain all of this to him and realized that I myself am not 100% on everything. So here is what I started to tell him and we will go from here because I am sure a lot of people could explain this a lot better. I started with explaining the fundamentals of how card counting works (more money when you have an advantage) and then explained to him how bankroll is very important and you can take a beating for a consecutive sessions and you need enough bankroll to be able to keep playing and come back from those losses. Then I showed him a real life situation simulated out with about a 20 dollar an hour win rate. I explained that over a long period of time, he would be expected to be winning 20 dollars an hour. I then went on to (attempted) to explain N0 and told him that this is the amount of rounds that it takes of play at the specified rules and spread in order to be sure that you will not be negative money. Then the questions started to come and I really couldn't answer them. He said if you need to play X amount of rounds in order to be sure you are not negative, you could be break even after that many rounds and then the 20 dollars and hour win rate would be false. He then started to ask if N0 is effected by a minimal bankroll and said I think so but could not explain that either. There has to be a good answer that I can give him to these questions right?

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    Quote Originally Posted by tjr5259 View Post
    I then went on to (attempted) to explain N0 and told him that this is the amount of rounds that it takes of play at the specified rules and spread in order to be sure that you will not be negative money.
    Wrong.

  3. #3


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    Quote Originally Posted by bjarg View Post
    Wrong.
    Amount of rounds that is takes to be 80% sure you won't be losing money?

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    Quote Originally Posted by tjr5259 View Post
    Amount of rounds that is takes to be 80% sure you won't be losing money?
    getting closer.
    Maman died today. Or yesterday maybe, I don't know.

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    Quote Originally Posted by muckz View Post
    getting closer.
    Within one standard deviation?

  6. #6


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    Quote Originally Posted by tjr5259 View Post
    Within one standard deviation?
    Very close now, just disregard everything about making sure you won't lose money.

    N0 is the measure of how many rounds until _____ equals one standard deviation.
    Maman died today. Or yesterday maybe, I don't know.

  7. #7


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    Quote Originally Posted by muckz View Post
    Very close now, just disregard everything about making sure you won't lose money.

    N0 is the measure of how many rounds until _____ equals one standard deviation.
    So how can you relate that to win rate and ROR?

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    Quote Originally Posted by tjr5259 View Post
    So how can you relate that to win rate and ROR?
    You were supposed to fill in the blank.

    Coincidentally you should fill in the blank with one of the two terms you just used.
    Maman died today. Or yesterday maybe, I don't know.

  9. #9


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    Quote Originally Posted by muckz View Post
    You were supposed to fill in the blank.

    Coincidentally you should fill in the blank with one of the two terms you just used.
    I'm gonna go with Win Rate

  10. #10


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    Hi!

    Here's a free eBook on N0:

    http://www.blackjackstartup.com/N0I.htm

    Best !

    SiMi

  11. #11
    Senior Member Bodarc's Avatar
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    What a great eBook! Thanks Simi
    Play within your bankroll, pick your games with care and learn everything you can about the game. The winning will come. It has to. It's in the cards. -- Bryce Carlson

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    Yes thank you.

  13. #13


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    Hi!

    You are both very welcome! I hope it helps in some small way.

    SiMi

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