Realistic Performance?

[AnabelleT]

Hi! I'm new here, my first post. Hope to learn a lot.

I started playing slots a few years ago, then discovered Baccarat (one of my favorites!) Pai Gow Poker and Three Card Poker, and though Blackjack always intimidated me, last year I dedicated a ton of time to learning basic strategy and the hi/lo count with some help.

My basic strategy is perfect, I know it very well, my count is strong while using an iPad BlackJack app, but when at the casino I tend to lose my count and get confused, specially if more people are playing. I've done ok at the casino, I'm about breaking even in Blackjack, but I think that's mostly due to basic strategy and an approximate count.

My question has to do with the app Blackjack 21 Pro which I have set up with 6 decks, dealer hits on soft 17, and allows surrender. On the app my basic strategy and counting is perfect, statistics on the app show that after 295 hands I've won 47.5% to the "casinos'" 44.4%.

Why am I only slightly ahead? I thought I would be more ahead with perfect basic strategy and a perfect count.

Or is this what should be expected?

And even though this is supposed to be a "realistic" app, will my results be different in a live casino once I can count better in a live situation?


While I'm at it, any tips on improving my count live? I get nervous and lose it fairly quickly, though I think I've been keeping a close count anyway.

Someone suggested I try the Ace/Five count rather than the Hi/Lo for live situations until I can improve my Hi/Lo count live. But by NOT practicing my Hi/Lo count live, how will I improve it?


Thank you guys so much for any help/info.

[Three]

On the app my basic strategy and counting is perfect, statistics on the app show that after 295 hands I've won 47.5% to the "casinos'" 44.4%.

You never are a favorite to win the next hand. Your advantage comes from betting more when you have the advantage. Why do you have an advantage? Because you will get more BJ bonus payouts at high counts and more opportunities to double and split while getting better results on those opportunities. Surrender becomes far more valuable at high counts. Not only do you save EV by surrendering but you eliminate the variance involved in those higher bets made that end up with a matchup that has you at a big disadvantage. Surrender is a 0 variance play. This tames the wild swings associated with making big bets.

Or is this what should be expected?

Like I just explained this is expected especially if you are not raising your bets much at an advantage on the app.

While I'm at it, any tips on improving my count live? I get nervous and lose it fairly quickly, though I think I've been keeping a close count anyway.

You can practice backcounting in a casino for a while. You will only be betting with a nice edge as you will stand and watch the game until the count warrants a bigger bet due to a nice advantage. If you lose count find another table starting afresh shoe to count.

Someone suggested I try the Ace/Five count rather than the Hi/Lo for live situations until I can improve my Hi/Lo count live. But by NOT practicing my Hi/Lo count live, how will I improve it?

Forget this idea. Just leave the table if you lose count. Eventually you will get used to counting in a casino.

[tiny]

There is nothing unusual about your results considering you've played less than 300 hands. It's a small sample size that can go either way (being ahead or down).

When I first started counting live at the casino I'd play the double deck since it's easier to keep the count and convert to true count. You'll get better with practice. If you lose the count, just flat bet minimum or wait for a new shoe. I'd suggest betting real small until you get use to keeping the count and spreading your bets accordingly.

[NotEnoughHeat]

As has been already implied, the count doesn't drastically alter your chances on winning a particular hand (if anyone has an article or link on this, it would be much appreciated). Counting doesn't make you win a larger percentage of the time, it helps you decide when it's profitable to put more money in.

It's quite easy to sit down and move through a entire deck while keeping an accurate count. I don't think any simulation beyond literally having someone deal to you and a bunch of spot while distracting you (like in 21) is a perfect preparation for what to expect at the casino. Being able to pay attention to hands (making sure the numbers add up to what the dealer say they are, and ensure proper payouts, etc.) while keeping the count and acting on it is an important skill that you'll most likely have to practice by actually doing it.

[moo321]

Counting will help you get ahead after a few dozen, or a few hundred hours. It's sort of like stocks: in any given year, anything could happen. Over 20 years, you're going to get ahead.

[Nikky_Flash]

hi Anabelle , you sound like you are doing fine for a begginer, keep it up ! - if you dont feel comfortable leaving the table when you lose count you can just bet table min too , won't be a huge waste or anything , and you can keep your spot at the table - researching the concept of N-zero , (often times looking like " N0 " here on the forum) ,will help you tremendously . someone had a good link to an excessive article on it , ill try to find it again for you

[Blitzkrieg]

.

While I'm at it, any tips on improving my count live? I get nervous and lose it fairly quickly, though I think I've been keeping a close count anyway.

You can improve on your counting skills by practicing. I think it's good practicing using computers because of repetition. However I prefer to use cards also because my eyes are forced to scan the entire table, with a computer I tend to focus my eyes only on a 5 inch spot on my screen to where I never have to move my head which doesn't have the same feel while I'm in the casino.

You should try practicing with loud distractions in the background such as music and the TV playing at the same time while maintaining an accurate count. With enough practice you should be able to tune out the background noise naturally and be able to concentrate to where the background noise doesn't have an effect on you while counting. Getting a deck of cards and spreading out to 7 player hands and 1 dealer hand should help you out, mix it up. You should be able to count as fast as you can deal. By the time you deal and flip the dealers upcard you should already have the count tallied in your head to where you move straight into playing decisions based on player hands. That's how you need to be in the casino. When the dealer turns over their upcard you should have the running count and be ready to rock, if not, the player is to slow in my opinion. Count in pairs, cancel when necessary.

Here goes a fun little game since your using Hi-Lo count. If the game doesn't come up hit the intro tab. http://www.uston.com/intro.htm

[AnabelleT]

Thank you so much, guys! I was at the casino tonight, played for two hours, was down, and only broke even because I played some Baccarat afterwards. I was able to keep a correct count only during one shoe. I was varying my bets and everything, but still. For the first time ever I noticed the pit boss watching me and it made me a little nervous. I guess since I was playing a $15 table and was never too far ahead he didn't care what I was doing, but I think I'm way too obvious with the way I look at the cards, how I try to remember my count by adjusting my chips, and my different bet sizes. I panicked a little thinking I might be told to never play there again, it's my favorite casino in the area (South Florida). I guess it's something else I'll have to work on other than getting better at remembering the count

[Three]

A lot of time te suits are seeing how you ract to their attention. You must remain cool.

[Nikky_Flash]

Annabelle , here's the link ...simi had it ,
its not exactly a "50 shades of grey "
, but ...it explains what you really really need to understand about ... n-zero ...
http://www.blackjackstartup.com/N0I.htm