what's better?

[Meistro123]

17 vs 12 or 19 vs 10?

[hitthat16]

Vs 12? Is this a hole card situation?

[Meistro123]

yes. actually what happened was, playing a no hole card game (OBO) the dealer flashes my hit card and the next card. my hit card gives me 17, the next card is 2, head up game, dealer shows T. I am pretty sure I choked by hitting.

[Meistro123]

There are 5 cards i don't want to see with 19 V 10, 4 faces one ace. There are 4 cards I don't want to see with 17 vs 12, 6, 7, 8, 9. I also feel like I'm in better shape if the dealer pulls an A, 2, 3 or 4 with 17 vs 12 than I am in the dealer pulls a 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6 with 19 v T. I don't know. Should be an easy ev calc I guess.

[hitthat16]

Don't quote me on this, but I think letting the dealer take the 2 is a valuable play. Stiff dealer hands are worth quite a bit.

What was your original hand? What card did you take that gave you 17?

[Three]

17 v 12:
4 cards are an instant win. 4 cards are an instant loss. 1 card is a push. 4 cards has the dealer in a worse situation. Each point total higher than 12 the dealer has to hit adds 1 to the number of dealer bust cards without changing the number of cards that are auto losers. So negating pushes you start winning 4 of 8 and get better each extra card that is drawn (5 of 12).

19 V T:
5 cards are instant losers. 2 cards are instant winners. 1 card is a push. 5 cards have the dealer drawing on a stiff. Each stiff draw has 2 losers and at least 4 winners and 1 push. So if you negate pushes you expect lose 2 of 7 on the next card and win most of the time on the stiff draws 5 of 12 cards.

[Meistro123]

19 v T not 19 v A.

I don't recall the cards exactly, just that it was a hard seventeen. Three card I think.

[Three]

Thanks. It was a typo. The text was correct.

[stopgambling]

i assumed
17 vs 12 ,i will look it up in bja 3

[RS]

edit: Nevermind.

[Three]

17v12 negating pushes:
1/3 win
1/3 lose
1/3 dealer hitting one of the below stiffs:
13:
5/12 win, 1/3 lose, 1/4 hitting one of the below stiffs:
14:
1/2 win, 1/3 lose, 1/6 hitting one of the below stiffs:
15:
7/12 win, 1/3 lose, 1/12 hitting the below stiff:
16:
2/3 win, 1/3 lose

It seems obvious this slightly favors a win as it is 50/50 on a one card decision and favors a win on every stiff hand.

19vT negating pushes:
1/6 win
5/12 lose
5/12 hitting one of the below stiffs:
12:
1/2 win, 1/6 lose, 1/3 hitting one of the below stiffs:
13:
7/12 win, 1/6 lose, 1/4 hitting one of the below stiffs:
14:
2/3 win, 1/6 lose, 1/6 hitting one of the below stiffs:
15:
3/4 win, 1/6 lose, 1/12 hitting the below stiff:
16:
5/6 win, 1/6 lose

THis one is close to a coin flip slightly favoring a loss roughing it out from the above info. CDA confirm with 8 deck ENHC off the top EV of -1.81% for T,7,2vT. If the dealer peeked for BJ the 19vT would have an EV of +6.459 and I would still not be sure which would be the right decision. My guess is still 17v2 as it doesn't look that close but it isn't a cut and dried choice anymore.

Definitely 17v12 as the better matchup for the OP.

[moo321]

I don't have EV charts for known hole card situations (does this even exist?). I'm constructing the EV hit and EV double from this chart: http://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/appendix/2b/

EDIT: I transposed my numbers.

With a nineteen, I have the dealer winning 45.2002%, player winning 43.6299%. So, EV Hit=-1.57%

17 v. 12 is a winner, 19 v. 10 (unchecked) is a loser. So stand.