Theorem: Heat is the most important factor in game selection

[moo321]

I think a lot of players are getting hung up on winrate, SCORE, and other factors that only consider how good a game is in a sim. I don't think this is a mistake; playing good games is important. It wins more money, takes less risk, and gets us to the long run faster.

However, I theorize that Heat is badly under-considered in most players game analysis. They may not realize how much EV or variance they are eating with cover. They often don't realize how much they're giving up by only playing short sessions.

For example, many players recommend playing 45 minute sessions. This is certainly effective from an operations perspective. It doesn't give them the time or the sample size to bust you. Short, unrated sessions are nearly impossible to tie together, so they can't bust you over the long run.

But what is the 45-minute player giving up? Even if you're on the strip in Vegas, it would be hard to get into another game in 15 minutes. So, you're giving up 1/4 of your hourly rate by moving between games. If you're playing off strip, it might take you 1/2 hour to get to your car, get to the next game, and get down. And this is assuming you have chip inventory and you're not going to the cage. If you're playing riverboats that are 20 miles apart, the cost of "hit and run" is even worse.

Here's a comparison. I'm going to take pretty good games. And I'll compare the winrates in 3 different scenarios: immediately go next door (15 minutes lost) drive across town (30 minutes lost) drive a county over (45 minutes lost).

Game: SD S17 DAS 1-4 spread, Hi-Lo, 20 cards cut off
Base winrate:$89.65
Go next door: $67.24
Go across town: $53.79
Go a county over: $44.83

Game: DD S17 DAS 1-8 Spread, Hi-Lo 26 cards cut off
Base winrate: $93.41
Go next door: $70.05
Go across town: $56.05
Go a county over: $46.71

Game: DD H17 DAS 1-8 spread Hi-Lo, 26 cards cut off.
Base winrate: $74.18
Go next door: $55.63/hour
Go across town: $44.51/hour
Go a county over: $37.09

Game: 6D S17 DAS LS 1-15 spread, 52 cards cut off.
Base winrate: $56.95
Go next door: $42.71
Go across town: $34.17
Go a county over: $28.48

It gets worse:
1. If you're taking 5 minute trips to the cage at each casino, lop off another 3-5%.
2. If you're playing with cover, lop off some more EV and add to your N0.
3. These are good games with aggressive play. If you're playing bad games, your winrate is worse.

On the other hand, let's with the assumption that there is a dumb crew. You can play longer. Or you can play all day. Or you can spread more. Let's take a look at a "bad" game.

Game: H17 DAS 1-8 spread, 52 cards cut off,
winrate: $19.87


Most players would say "this game sucks". It does suck if it's on the Strip and it's sweaty. But what about if you can spread 1-20 on it all day, or for long sessions? If you throw in some wongouts, your winrate could easily get in the $40-50/hour. That's the same as the guy driving around to the Vegas locals games playing DD H17 DAS 26 cut off for 45 minute sessions!

Game: H17 DAS 1-10 spread, 52 cards cut off
winrate: $25.36

Game: H17 DAS 1-15 spread, 52 cards cut off
winrate: $32.65

Game: H17 DAS 1-20 spread, 52 cards cut off
winrate: $37.54


Let's look at some other playable, ok, marginal, or bad games that can become comparably playable by playing them aggressively. I'll go in order of games that, with "standard" spreads are ok, to games that are unplayable with "standard" spreads:

"Playable" ("normal" winrate over $50):

Game: 6d H17 DAS LS, 52 cut off, 1-30 spread, 2 hands
winrate: $78.36

"Ok" ("normal" winrate $30-50)

Game: 8d S17 DAS LS, 52 cut off, 2 hands, 2 hands
winrate: $90.11

Game: 8d S17 DAS, 52 cut off, 1-30 spread, 2 hands:
winrate: $54.85

Game: 8d, H17 DAS LS, 52 cut off, 1-30 spread, 2 hands
winrate: $68.66

"Bad" (normal winrate under $30)

Game: 8d H17 DAS, 52 cut off, 1-30 spread, 2 hands
winrate: $47.99

Game: 6d H17 DAS, 52 cut off, 1-30 spread, 2 hands
winrate: $54.62

Can't play games with bad pen? Are you sure?

Game: 6d S17 DAS LS, 104 cut off, 1-30 spread, 2 hands
winrate: $40.98

Game: 6d H17 DAS LS, 104 cut off, 1-30 spread, 2 hands
winrate: $34.25

Wait, an 8 decker is as good as the DD at the Bellagio?!

These are just base spreads playing 2 hands. They're not considering adding and taking back hands, wongouts, and other factors.

You may say "these are all made up! You can't spread 1-20 on DD!". Almost all of the games I listed are examples of games I have personally played, for hours on end, many with heavy green and even black/purple action. I have played FOR DAYS at games with $200+/hr. winrates.

Yes, rules and pen matter. But I think these are very fair comparisons of the difference in winrate between low and high-heat games. It's hard to actually quantify, but the EV difference between a sweaty game and a heat-free game is probably comparable to the difference between H17 no surrender and S17 LS. Maybe more, depending on how conservative you are on the sweaty game, and how aggressive you are on the heat-free game.

Moral of the story: the guy playing a marginal game could be making more than the guy playing "hit and run" at the best SD and DD in Vegas. The guy playing with a huge spread on a garbage game with a book "winrate" in the teens could outperform someone playing the best pitch games with a bunch of cover.

Conclusion: All other things being equal, low or no-heat games are worth at least as much as rules and pen.

[muffdiver]

Good post, moo. You wisely put "all other things being equal" in the last sentence. I'm sure you'll agree that they seldom are.

[Dieter]

No heat is a beautiful thing. 1-20, 1-30, 1-50...

The people spreading 1-100 still seem to hit and run, but they seem to be up pretty nicely after 30 minutes.

[ZeeBabar]

Your point seems to be that being on the assembly line all day makes sense. Or, that making more money in shorter time is most important. I could probably make more money seeing more patients every day but I like the 15-20 minute breaks I take each hour, savor the time and take inventory of myself. People can get burned out faster by doing too much in short time.

in the end, how many hours a day do you want to put in BJ (the casinos are not running away) and do you really want to burn yourself up?

in the long run, quality may be better than quantity.

[muffdiver]

Your point seems to be that being on the assembly line all day makes sense. Or, that making more money in shorter time is most important. I could probably make more money seeing more patients every day but I like the 15-20 minute breaks I take each hour, savor the time and take inventory of myself. People can get burned out faster by doing too much in short time.

in the end, how many hours a day do you want to put in BJ (the casinos are not running away) and do you really want to burn yourself up?

in the long run, quality may be better than quantity.

moses isn't a kid anymore and I'm older than he is.

[RS]

What's the N0 look like on those games with bad rules but more EV/hour? I doubt that 8d game is better than the DD. Might be more EV. But I'd rather spread 1-8 than 1-30 and give up a couple bucks an hour. I think most others would, too.

[stopgambling]

Don't you think all games should be play Moo? I would certainly agree with you but in general i still think We should maximize our "market" potential.

[Jabberwocky]

Very Interesting thread Moo. I've learned this difference between Edge and Advantage from sports handicapping. An edge will keep a person on the edge - I see it everyday. An advantage isn't just sitting back and collecting money but rather a peace of mind in knowing a certain amount of income will be produced annually. I've spent about two years learning the difference's between edge and Advantage in blackjack. Counting is an edge and impossible to gain an Advantage without it.

Your advice is essential for a person that loves to play the game.

Fun is number one. If it's not, then you're done!

[Aslan]

I think a lot of players are getting hung up on winrate, SCORE, and other factors that only consider how good a game is in a sim. I don't think this is a mistake; playing good games is important. It wins more money, takes less risk, and gets us to the long run faster.

However, I theorize that Heat is badly under-considered in most players game analysis. They may not realize how much EV or variance they are eating with cover. They often don't realize how much they're giving up by only playing short sessions.

For example, many players recommend playing 45 minute sessions. This is certainly effective from an operations perspective. It doesn't give them the time or the sample size to bust you. Short, unrated sessions are nearly impossible to tie together, so they can't bust you over the long run.

But what is the 45-minute player giving up? Even if you're on the strip in Vegas, it would be hard to get into another game in 15 minutes. So, you're giving up 1/4 of your hourly rate by moving between games. If you're playing off strip, it might take you 1/2 hour to get to your car, get to the next game, and get down. And this is assuming you have chip inventory and you're not going to the cage. If you're playing riverboats that are 20 miles apart, the cost of "hit and run" is even worse.

Here's a comparison. I'm going to take pretty good games. And I'll compare the winrates in 3 different scenarios: immediately go next door (15 minutes lost) drive across town (30 minutes lost) drive a county over (45 minutes lost).

Game: SD S17 DAS 1-4 spread, Hi-Lo, 20 cards cut off
Base winrate:$89.65
Go next door: $67.24
Go across town: $53.79
Go a county over: $44.83

Game: DD S17 DAS 1-8 Spread, Hi-Lo 26 cards cut off
Base winrate: $93.41
Go next door: $70.05
Go across town: $56.05
Go a county over: $46.71

Game: DD H17 DAS 1-8 spread Hi-Lo, 26 cards cut off.
Base winrate: $74.18
Go next door: $55.63/hour
Go across town: $44.51/hour
Go a county over: $37.09

Game: 6D S17 DAS LS 1-15 spread, 52 cards cut off.
Base winrate: $56.95
Go next door: $42.71
Go across town: $34.17
Go a county over: $28.48

It gets worse:
1. If you're taking 5 minute trips to the cage at each casino, lop off another 3-5%.
2. If you're playing with cover, lop off some more EV and add to your N0.
3. These are good games with aggressive play. If you're playing bad games, your winrate is worse.

On the other hand, let's with the assumption that there is a dumb crew. You can play longer. Or you can play all day. Or you can spread more. Let's take a look at a "bad" game.

Game: H17 DAS 1-8 spread, 52 cards cut off,
winrate: $19.87


Most players would say "this game sucks". It does suck if it's on the Strip and it's sweaty. But what about if you can spread 1-20 on it all day, or for long sessions? If you throw in some wongouts, your winrate could easily get in the $40-50/hour. That's the same as the guy driving around to the Vegas locals games playing DD H17 DAS 26 cut off for 45 minute sessions!

Game: H17 DAS 1-10 spread, 52 cards cut off
winrate: $25.36

Game: H17 DAS 1-15 spread, 52 cards cut off
winrate: $32.65

Game: H17 DAS 1-20 spread, 52 cards cut off
winrate: $37.54


Let's look at some other playable, ok, marginal, or bad games that can become comparably playable by playing them aggressively. I'll go in order of games that, with "standard" spreads are ok, to games that are unplayable with "standard" spreads:

"Playable" ("normal" winrate over $50):

Game: 6d H17 DAS LS, 52 cut off, 1-30 spread, 2 hands
winrate: $78.36

"Ok" ("normal" winrate $30-50)

Game: 8d S17 DAS LS, 52 cut off, 2 hands, 2 hands
winrate: $90.11

Game: 8d S17 DAS, 52 cut off, 1-30 spread, 2 hands:
winrate: $54.85

Game: 8d, H17 DAS LS, 52 cut off, 1-30 spread, 2 hands
winrate: $68.66

"Bad" (normal winrate under $30)

Game: 8d H17 DAS, 52 cut off, 1-30 spread, 2 hands
winrate: $47.99

Game: 6d H17 DAS, 52 cut off, 1-30 spread, 2 hands
winrate: $54.62

Can't play games with bad pen? Are you sure?

Game: 6d S17 DAS LS, 104 cut off, 1-30 spread, 2 hands
winrate: $40.98

Game: 6d H17 DAS LS, 104 cut off, 1-30 spread, 2 hands
winrate: $34.25

Wait, an 8 decker is as good as the DD at the Bellagio?!

These are just base spreads playing 2 hands. They're not considering adding and taking back hands, wongouts, and other factors.

You may say "these are all made up! You can't spread 1-20 on DD!". Almost all of the games I listed are examples of games I have personally played, for hours on end, many with heavy green and even black/purple action. I have played FOR DAYS at games with $200+/hr. winrates.

Yes, rules and pen matter. But I think these are very fair comparisons of the difference in winrate between low and high-heat games. It's hard to actually quantify, but the EV difference between a sweaty game and a heat-free game is probably comparable to the difference between H17 no surrender and S17 LS. Maybe more, depending on how conservative you are on the sweaty game, and how aggressive you are on the heat-free game.

Moral of the story: the guy playing a marginal game could be making more than the guy playing "hit and run" at the best SD and DD in Vegas. The guy playing with a huge spread on a garbage game with a book "winrate" in the teens could outperform someone playing the best pitch games with a bunch of cover.

Conclusion: All other things being equal, low or no-heat games are worth at least as much as rules and pen.

I think your presentation is too academic. In the real world, I have found that great rules and great pen go hand and hand with strong surveillance.

Some pros may not care about burning out their games and getting flyers all over the place if they can make some deep and quick profits and be off to the next state or town with casinos.

Some pros may want to stay in one vicinity and try to play under the radar and within the tolerance levels of the casinos in that town or geographical area. They may want to play short and sweet sessions and get away before any suspicions are aroused. They may pose as a worker on his lunch hour. Their sessions may be so short that heat is not much a consideration as they do not stay long enough to allow it to build up. But even they have to worry about giving surveillance a look at them week after week as they eventually become recognized as regulars.

Then there are the pros who have more than one tool in their toolkits. They can achieve longevity without the need to delve deeply into EV robbing camo.

Pros who put together teams on a BP model can make some big bucks quickly, moving from one casino to another, and returning much later with a different partner.

Non-pro APs who play small and are comfortable with camo might disregard heat altogether, playing a patient game, no large spreads, employing misdirection and lots of little tricks of the trade to appear to be an erratic and desirable ploppy. If maximizing profits is not their concern, they can play for years, perhaps the only "tell" being that they are consistent winners, albeit small time winners.

Still other non-pro APs might be more interested in building comps at certain stores, and don't mind playing a near to break even game to do so.

Heat always plays a role, and no one looks for the greater heat, yet some styles accommodate heat better than others. It's my conviction that the best games are those with the average to good rules but with great pen. A "good game" requires good surveillance, or that casino will not fare well. You'll spend a lifetime scouting and little time playing if you're looking for great rules, great pen, and no heat. Grimm's is about the only one who has it, with the mandatory exception here and there.

So, in summary, heat is important directly proportionate to one's ability to deal with it, but only extreme heat ala El Cortez is a game breaker, at least for me. The most important factors to me in order of importance are (1) pen, (2) rules, and lastly (3) heat. Heat plays little part in my game selection unless its the El Cortez variety.

I have found that games usually pan out like this:

1-Great pen, great rules, usually going hand in hand with strong surveillance.
2-Great pen, average rules, usually going hand in hand with strong surveillance.
3-Average pen, great rules, usually going hand in hand with strong surveillance.
4-Average pen, average rules, usually going hand in hand with moderate surveillance.
5-Poor pen, average rules, moderate surveillance.
6-Average pen, poor rules, moderate surveillance.
7-Poor pen, poor rules, who cares what surveillance.

I only play the games in green. Therefore, I can safely say that surveillance hardly plays a role in my game selection.

[MyCatsCalledEnrico]

Absolutely spot on. As long as you're adequately bankrolled, a smaller edge in a game where you can pitch a tent and play until you pass out from exhaustion wins over 30 minutes of frantically looking over your shoulder every day of the week.

[Marlene]

Some of us prefer the variety of different shops and shorter sessions of different shifts over hours on end in a smoke filled and often unpleasant environment. Naturally, there are exceptions.

[Aslan]

Some of us prefer the variety of different shops and shorter sessions of different shifts over hours on end in a smoke filled and often unpleasant environment. Naturally, there are exceptions.

That's why I prefer the cleaner, brighter, best ventilated, less appealing to smokers rooms. My idea of a dreadful place to play for an extended period of time is Palace Station-- dark, stinking, and smoke-filled much of the time, not to mention, unsafe "feeling" late at night. Same goes for Circus Circus, where I have not played for more than 5 years.

[Three]

What's the N0 look like on those games with bad rules but more EV/hour? I doubt that 8d game is better than the DD. Might be more EV. But I'd rather spread 1-8 than 1-30 and give up a couple bucks an hour. I think most others would, too.

Stoned is the only one mentioning what i was thinking. N0 and the time it takes to reach it should be an important consideration. Then the individuals situation concerning BR and RoR should be weighed in. To a very well funded player finding a very tolerant game that lets you spread ridiculous all day because the game sucks is a find but to someone playing at high risk it would be a recipe for disaster. We are not talking one size fits all here. Moo's post is a great thing to consider but make sure you understand the pluses and minuses to your situation in particular.