Even money is the same thing as insurance.Originally Posted by Smoke8
It doesn't help increase your EV but does help increase the certainty of BR growth. To someone that need not worry about losing their BR or drawdown the certainty isn't worth much if anything at all but to someone operating at a high RoR or likelihood of drawdown it is more significant. The latter needs to increase certainty of BR growth which means controlling variance with minimal cost to EV. Even money is a 0 variance play. When it is a really bad idea to take even money you have your minimum bet out so the cost is minimal. You don't get many blackjacks and when you do the dealer usually doesn't have an Ace up. The bigger the disadvantage the rarer the matchup is. I would draw the line at TC 0 for RA insurance (EV -6%) but as the cost in EV soars to -20% at TC -6 the frequency of occurrence gets very small. Hopefully you are long gone by the time the TC gets this low.
You are technically correct, but what I think that they are trying to differentiate is taking insurance (or even money) ONLY when you have a blackjack. Based upon index play alone, you would take insurance no matter what hand you had, if the count was high enough to justify (+3 HiLo) But Snyder was just trying to make his point that while technically it was neg EV to take even money if count didn't justify, taking "even money" as that particular hand happened so seldom was not that costly per $100 bet.
"Women and cats will do as they please, and Men and dogs should just relax and get used to the idea" --- Robert A. Heinlein
Low variance , bankroll growth for sure. There can be also other opportunities that comes up. I played with less cover and i regret that i do cause of missed opportunities that comes up in the same place. Longevity and being able to play is often sacrifice for ev. EV is not good as CE. If i grow my bank consistently i would have a shot of something much more valuable than just cc.
Last edited by stopgambling; 02-23-2015 at 08:53 PM.
The quote I pulled from Snyder was from the chapter on cover "Idiot Camouflage". Taking even money early isn't going to give you EV, but it might be worthwhile in cover, considering how much the play actually costs on a lower bet and how often it actually occurs.
Also the variance considerations that has been brought up is also important to consider.
I seriously question this play as a cover maneuver. Anyone knowing enough to observe your index plays is plenty smart to bust you for other, much more obvious things that you do. Are you going to throw off a skills check by taking even money at +2? No. Are you going to throw it off by taking insurance at -1? Probably not.
There are other, much more effective ways to cover your play than by ignoring your most important index, and making a 3%+ side bet.
The Cash Cow.
Fair enough, I was going to add a disclaimer saying you could take it, if you judge in your situation it would be worthwhile (just because it's a low price doesn't mean it's worth the money!) but I thought that could be left unsaid. I'm inclined to agree that it probably isn't the best cover. Since it doesn't come up that frequently, it also might not come up when you need it to.
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