Are there situations where Even Money would/could provide cover?
Or does it occur so infrequently that it would have no benefit?
I could see taking even money at low bet levels and low counts for cover, but when ramping higher I'd rather accept the push on the hope of getting the 150%.
Again, this is strictly to appear as a plop.
Any thoughts??
“One man’s remorse is another man’s reminiscence.” Ogden Nash
Hmm, are you saying you would take even money of larger bets regardless of the count or should I read you as saying when the count is high (big bets out) even money is the better play? Like say if before the hand, the count warrants a large bet, but it drops enough by the time the action reaches you it goes under the insurance index number would you still recommend even money because of the variance consideration?Originally Posted by Tthree
I would take the even money. There is EV maximizing and then there is BR growth maximizing. They are not the same thing. Following the index religiously will maximize EV but when you play BJ your SD is almost 12 times EV. Here you can take a small hit to EV but have a SD of 0.
So you play with an EV of 300/hr and a SD of 3500/hr wouldn't you prefer to play a 275/hr EV with no deviation? Just a flat $275/hr.
Ah thanks. Ever since you posted those comments about how a level 2 count may be worthwhile for a under-rolled red chipper (exactly what I am) to learn when considering variance (RoR and N0) in that disadvantage thread I've been been giving more thought to volatility in my game.
A bit off topic, but do you have links to articles that talk about BR growth in comparison to EV. I feel like I still don't understand the concept of BR growth sufficiently. For example, a positive expectation game that is bet over 2-kelly having negative BR growth still seems a little counter intuitive to me even though looking at a case where you bet 1/5th of your roll on a 50/50 proposition with 10% edge illustrates the idea well enough.
Insurance carries a high house edge, and it is also the most valuable index play. You should take it when you should (when the count warrants it). When the count doesn't warrant it, even money (not insurance as a whole) is actually quite cheap cover. In Blackjack Attack, Arnold Synder says "If you were flat-betting $100 per hand, it would only cost you about $1.35 per 100 hands." So about 1.35% of a single min bet for 100 hands.
Maybe I'm missing out on an important index? Dealer Ace showing, I have an index for buying Insurance and I can't seem to find one for Even Money? If my TC is at the appropriate index or higher, I will buy the Insurance Bet. If my TC is less than the Insurance Bet Index, then I will except the out come win or lose and know I did the right thing! To me it's no different than any other index play. I always focus on Long Run Results.
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