Remedial optimal betting question help (math)

[BlackHead]

I'm lost on where to start this is not something i need just something I'm curious about. I usually use CVDATA for BJ h_ole cards and counting sidebets anything else it's capable on helping me with. Let's say I wanted to wager using half-Kelly in a poker variant game with a bankroll of 10,000 for simplicity. My edge lets say is 30% but being a poker variant the SD is much higher and element of risk. How would I go about figuring out my optimal bet after altering probability of the game by using extra information. Again I'm going out on a limb here I don't know what I'm talking about and don't know where to start. I simply copy other AP's in this circumstance and bet extremely safely when encountered with partial information.


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[Nyne]

Unfortunately, the commonly used approximation (bet size = edge / variance * bankroll) breaks down on games with highly skewed pay distributions. Your best bet for determining your optimal bet is to first determine the payoff distribution for the game, using either published materials or custom software, then use a variation of the method described in this link: http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/VPRoR.htm. It becomes slightly more complicated when you have multiple possible loss sizes, but this is still the best approach to knowing exactly what to bet for each particular risk level.

[BlackHead]

Thanks again Nyne I had a feeling it was more complicated than (bet size = edge / variance * bankroll). I feel like I'm somewhat in the right path to finding the optimal bet for MS and UTH. I usually just wager a little less than half a percent of my bankroll unless I plan to hit the same table for a weekend. But it sucks not being able to be reassured by looking at the numbers.


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