Large Bet On 1st Hand of A Fresh Shoe - Effectiveness?

[Mickey]

Well, the title pretty much sums it up...

What is YOUR opinion of just how effective it is when you KNOW the PB is watching you play and sees you open a new shoe with a large bet out there (and keeping it out there until you lose and then dropping back down to min unless the TC calls for a different amount)? How effective do you think it is in getting him to disregard you as an AP right away in his mind and not have to "worry about you" anymore going forward when your other big bets come out later?

(keep in mind I'm not talking about making a habit of this move - only for that fresh touch-point with a new PB on that first impression - especially if it's a store you plan to frequent going forward)

In other words, if I'm going to use cover...and if I'm going to use it sparingly (due to my low stakes play)...I would want to make sure I choose the highest impact "single item or two" for cover...

Lastly, I also realize "your act" alone can really make quite the impact in terms of cover, apart from "betting cover" ...but I just feel that sprinkling in a bit of betting cover on top of "the act" can ensure a well-balanced cocktail of longevity at an establishment that I truly enjoy frequenting and mingling with the staff and players (especially if the game is just too good to pass up and the EV can still justify the cover).

[stopgambling]

Sounds good , but only for something worthwhile. you have to know what you are giving up. Design a plan then execute it when everything is right. You have to make sure you are playing a winning game ,Usually this type of play is not recommend for most . Use your imagination as well , but be very careful not to lose most of your advantage!

[muffdiver]

It's costly cover. Off the top is always minus EV when straight counting.

[Avincow]

If you bet $100 on first hand of shoe, that is about a 50 cent loss. I don't think that is expensive at all. Tipping the dealer is way more expensive than this type of move.

[muffdiver]

For the most part, tipping is minus EV, too.

[moo321]

If you bet $100 on first hand of shoe, that is about a 50 cent loss. I don't think that is expensive at all. Tipping the dealer is way more expensive than this type of move.

Consider the effect of adding that variance to your bankroll. Lots of -EV means a lot longer time to the long run.

[Exoter175]

For the most part, tipping is minus EV, too.

That depends on whether you look at it as mandatory or situational, and whether its part of the game, or part of that session. For me, tipping is a mandatory part of my game that would be part of my "base" game wherever I go or play, so the act in and of itself isn't -EV in my eyes. However, if you consider it as part of your game, it might actually serve to be +EV, should that dealer ever realize you are a counter and decide not to say anything about it, thus extending your "time" in his/her casino giving you many more hands to play with, ultimately making more money.

[Mickey]

What about doing this at a place w/ a low house edge that's known to be sweaty (like "The EC")? Do you see that as being a worthwhile move to "throw them off"?

[RS]

If you're trying to get him off your trail, you *might* be better off starting with a small bet, then immediately jumping to a big bet on the second round. Then go back down to your min bet for third round, and follow your betting/ramping schedule thereafter.

[stopgambling]

keep thinking about what if and there are a lot of what ifs! Use your imagination and think about why a lot of thing are not discuss with great length . Develop your own style with the what you learn about the game.

[bigplayer]

I wouldn't make "large" bets but making a bet that's 2x to 4x your normal bottom bet and keeping it out there for the first few rounds of your first shoe can give you a higher avg bet when playing rated and make your spread look smaller. In neutral counts the EV against you isn't that bad, the true cost of cover is in the variance and how it lengthens N0. Take CVCX and gradually change your 0 TC bets from $25 to $35 to $40, to $50, etc and watch N0 go up. Even a $5 or $10 increase in your bottom bet can add 50 to 250 hours to what it takes to get into the long run (depending on whether you define it as N0 or 2N0.

If a big spread nearly play-all approach is your style on a good game then betting multiple units off the top is a very effective form of cover. If you're just table hopping you'd be better served just buying in small and staying below radar completely until it's time to blast it.

[Three]

the true cost of cover is in the variance and how it lengthens N0.

Tis is something that people often don't understand well enough. You get a low level counter that is underfunded worrying about cover and they think the cost is minimal but to them minimizing N0 is a prime consideration. Growing their BR is tied to a low N0. What is best for them is often a more complicated issue. Taking a higher risk early in hopes of reducing risk sooner and N0 now has a much different risk to reward profile than an adequately funded player would have.It is a tricky line to walk and depending on how replenishable your BR is the best answer for you may vary greatly.

The bottom line is covers real cost to a low level counter is most devastating in the increase in N0. Lowering N0 is the most important consideration to the BR challenged. Backcounting, perfect play, better BC, learning more indices and strong PE (assuming perfect play) all are ways of decreasing N0 at no cost. Bigger spreads have a higher risk involved but can greatly reduce N0. The latter is where risk reward comes into play. Risk averse indices can control variance some but at a low level the gain from more aggressive betting may not be practical.

If a big spread nearly play-all approach is your style on a good game then betting multiple units off the top is a very effective form of cover.

I totally agree with this. A very useful tool concerning heat and rating if playing rating for someone that can afford to bet at a larger level.

[moo321]

There are good forms of betting cover. "Bet big off the top" is way down my list of goof forms of betting cover. Too much negative EV, and way too much variance for me.