Greetings forum posters and lurkers,

I just watched the movie "This is the end" and it got me thinking about a statistical nuance that may be shared in blackjack that somebody here would be able to explain. If you haven't seen the movie, I'm referring to when they draw the matches to decide who has to go and find water/food. They burn one match, flip it upside down, and let each person pick a match and whoever has the burned one loses, basically drawing straws.

My question is, is there an advantage to going last in this situation? To me, the person going first is the only one who has a 100% chance of there still being the burnt one, whereas each person after only has to go if the person before him chooses a regular match. If there are 6 matches, for example, the first person has a 1/6 chance of losing, which would make it so the other people don't even have to go. Each time somebody chooses they're facing a chance of getting it that the last person doesn't have to take on, so it makes sense that the last person has a good advantage.

Part 2 of the question is, would this relate in any way to a blackjack table and positioning on the bases? For example, if you are side counting aces or just in a high count, the first base player/second base player ect until it gets to you has a chance to get that card before you do, and thus it hurts you slightly. I am aware this has been examined before but I'm not entirely sure I understand why it is fallacious. Let's say there are 3 players acting ahead of you and the count is +6 so you get a large bet out, those players could (possibly likely to bc of the count) easily take one, two or even three of your tens before you even get a chance, and the true count could take a dip by the time you even get to your hand. Since these are dependent events, it seems like you'd have to consider the chances of each player getting that ten/ace before you, sort of like the person drawing the first match. Clearly the impact would be amplified by less decks and deeper into the shoe.

Thanks for any thoughts,
Bram