Blackjack question

[Timmyblackjack]

Hi everyone I am new to this message board and I want to thank everyone in advance for all of their help.

Let me start out by saying I play blackjack around once a week on average. I know basic staggery and I know how to card count, but I am not a pro by any means. I have a few questions about the casino I play at let me first state the facts before I go into any questions.


I play at this Indian casino and know as a fact they have been busted for removing aces out of the deck not once but twice. Also when they put new cards into play they never show the cards face up. I lose 9 out of 10 times I play there and I struggle to win. I was literally $2.50 ahead for my 1 out of 10 chance of winning. I watch table after table after table get wiped out and it doesn't matter what table you sit at (same at every table) the dealer is always hot. The other players don't just lose they get blown away with the force of a nuclear bomb. I have seen the dealer go 3 straight shoes without busting. Also I have gone 45 minutes without winning a hand. When I tell you people these stories it isn't a small sample size this consists of at least 3 years of play and several thousand hands. I have a computer simulation of blackjack and it says you should walk away even or ahead 42 percent of the time as long as you bet constant. Which I do table min when table sucks and slowly raise when I win.


Now for the questions part and they are as follows;


1.) I have played before and have counted 23 straight non 10 valued cards in a six deck shoe. I know that you have about a 33 percent chance of pulling a 10 value card. That's how so many people get wiped out there is because face cards never come out. Anyone with half a brain would raise their bet the next hand thinking I got a chance of receiving a really good hand or the dealer has a strong chance of busting. Then the next hand comes and everyone has 12s through 16s and the dealer had a bust card showing. I bet you guys never guess what come next!?!? The dealer pulls a 4 card 20 and everyone loses. (Go back to my story about the dealer not busting for 3 shoes). So what are the odds of 23 none 10 value cards coming off in a row.


2.) Have you guys ever heard of second dealing? I think that may be a factor in this as well. I read several articles about it and the number one way of telling is that if the dealer pulls 2 cards out of the shoe by accident. I went there before and have seen countless number of times the dealers pulling out more than one card lots of times especially with new dealers doing it least 10 times a shoe. Then they would say man these damn cards. Also I am friends with a pit boss and he told me the dealer who caused the other players to lose the most gets a huge bonus check monthly. So are they second dealing their customers.


I could go on and on but I think you guys get the point. Let me conclude by saying I have been to at least 50 casinos and I have never seen one as bas as the one as I talked about. I wouldn't go there anymore except the next closet one is more than 100 miles farther and that is terrible. I have played at least a million hands of blackjack in my life in those other casinos I have played in and I know the odds pretty well. So this is at least 3 years of observation at this casino. So could some pro player please answer my question that would be greatly appreciated.

[Dog Hand]

Hi everyone I am new to this message board and I want to thank everyone in advance for all of their help.<snip>
1.) I have played before and have counted 23 straight non 10 valued cards in a six deck shoe. <snip> So what are the odds of 23 none 10 value cards coming off in a row.

Timmyblackjack,

First of all, welcome to Blackjack the Forum!

This query is easy to answer: the odds are 100%, since you already saw it happen

Now, if you instead want to know the probability that, for the next freshly-shuffled 6D shoe you see, the first 23 cards will be non-X's, we can calculate that as follows. Off the top, the shoe has 216 non-X's and 312 cards total, so we get:

Prob = (216!/(216-23)!)/(312!/(312-23)!).

Plugging in the numbers gives us:

Prob = (216*215*214*213*...*195*194)/(312*311*310*309*...*291*290) = 0.0001447111...

Note the numerator and denominator each have 23 terms.

Inverting the prob tells us that it's a 1-in-6910.32... chance.

Now, how many 6D shoes have you seen in your lifetime?

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

[Bodarc]

Let me get this straight ..... they have been busted twice for shorting their decks .......they will not spread the cards when the bring out a new deck.......you've seen the dealer go 3 straight shoes without busting and .......you've been playing and losing for 3 straight years ........and you still play there????????

I don't know how to post a smiley rolling his eyes or I would!

[Three]

If you play where you know you are being cheated and can't win just because the game is handy you have big problem.

I think I missed any question in the post.

I guess you mean dealing seconds and the odds of that event. Yes it is possible to deal seconds but it is almost always done in hand held games. It is hard to know what the next card is dealing from a shoe. There are trick shoes with optics that allow the next card to be seen by the dealer only.

The odds of 23 non-T's in a row is constantly changing as cards are removed from the deck. Off the top of a 6 deck shoe the equation looks like this:

216/312 * 215/311 * 214/310 * ... * 194/290 until there have been 23 non-T's dealt. At any depletion of T's it isn't going to be very likely unless very few T's are left. I see all kinds of very very unlikely events in casinos. Like a dealer drawing 6 aces in a row to make 17 out of his 11. I don't think the casino added extra aces. The worst part was I was side counting aces and there was a pretty good deficit before the 6 aces came out.

[moo321]

If you play were you know you are being cheated and can't win ust because the game is handy you have big problem.

I think I missed any question in the post.

I guess you mean dealing seconds and the odds of that event. Yes it is possible to deal seconds but it is almost always done in hand held games. It is hard to know what the next card is dealing from a shoe. There are trick shoes with optics that allow the next card to be seen by the dealer only.

The odds of 23 non-T's in a row is constantly changing as cards are removed from the deck. Off the top of a 6 deck shoe the equation looks like this:

216/312 * 215/311 * 214/310 * ... * 194/290 until there have been 23 non-T's dealt. At any depletion of T's it isn't going to be very likely unless very few T's are left. I see all kinds of very very unlikely events in casinos. Like a dealer drawing 6 aces in a row to make 17 out of his 11. I don't think the casino added extra aces. The worst part was I was side counting aces and there was a pretty good deficit before the 6 aces came out.

I disagree. It is possible they could be dealing seconds out of a shoe, even without a prism:

1. They could mark the cards. If the brush doesn't completely cover the card, they could then deal seconds
2. They could sanded or otherwise have the back modified to have a different feel
3. The deck could be stacked, or the dealer could have knowledge of where certain cards are in the deck. This could be accomplished rather easily by peaking during the shuffle

A good dealer could possibly deal seconds out of a shoe that would appear to be normal. Lift or otherwise move the top, and get the second out. It would actually be really easy if they used both hands (but it would be obvious to anyone half-sharp).

[Blitzkrieg]

Can you elaborate on this particular casino getting busted out by removing aces from the deck? How did you get that information? If their unwilling to show a brand new deck of cards face up when bringing them into a game I would question that procedure. You make it sound like the players are literally getting scalped with the beatings they are receiving on the blackjack felt at that casino. If your winnings rates are that dismal and you have beforehand knowledge of them cheating then why are you in there playing at all? Out of convenience? That extra 100+ miles might be worth it traveling to the other casino where favorable conditions could possibly be found. Putting $20 in the gas tank sounds like a cheap alternative.

[mofungoo]

You will lose more $ playing at that casino than the gas for a 200 mile round trip would cost. Take a ride to another casino.

[Three]

I disagree. It is possible they could be dealing seconds out of a shoe, even without a prism:

1. They could mark the cards. If the brush doesn't completely cover the card, they could then deal seconds
2. They could sanded or otherwise have the back modified to have a different feel
3. The deck could be stacked, or the dealer could have knowledge of where certain cards are in the deck. This could be accomplished rather easily by peaking during the shuffle

Thanks Moo. I was aware of at least 2 of the 3 methods you describe. I hadn't really considered #3 that I remember. Obviously I had considered stacked but peaking on the shuffle was not something I had thought of. I am surprised I hadn't because I had used that to my advantage in the past.

[Timmyblackjack]

Can you elaborate on this particular casino getting busted out by removing aces from the deck? How did you get that information? If their unwilling to show a brand new deck of cards face up when bringing them into a game I would question that procedure. You make it sound like the players are literally getting scalped with the beatings they are receiving on the blackjack felt at that casino. If your winnings rates are that dismal and you have beforehand knowledge of them cheating then why are you in there playing at all? Out of convenience? That extra 100+ miles might be worth it traveling to the other casino where favorable conditions could possibly be found. Putting $20 in the gas tank sounds like a cheap alternative.

i play at turtle creek casino in traverse city Michigan. Google turtle creek casino removing aces out of the deck. I think it is in a professional gamblers ebook. Also I live in a small town and word gets around fast also I am friends with a pit boss and he confirmed the story by showing me Turtle creeks records.

Also so you are right about paying that little bit extra for gas to get a fair game

[Timmyblackjack]

Also thank you everyone for replying to my thread. Great Stuff everyone!

[ZeeBabar]

Let me get this straight ..... they have been busted twice for shorting their decks .......they will not spread the cards when the bring out a new deck.......you've seen the dealer go 3 straight shoes without busting and .......you've been playing and losing for 3 straight years ........and you still play there????????

I don't know how to post a smiley rolling his eyes or I would!

Plus One!!! If you went to that casino after you found out that they removed Aces and after observing this crap so often, you have to admit to an addiction problem. Three years!!! It's like going to a hooker with STD because she is the nearest one in business.