Betting/Bankroll Advice

[jjjggg]

That shouldn't BE a question IF you're playing a solid game. You do know the math-------------- right?

OK, so you never get a little gun-shy after a big loss?

[Goodboy]

OK, so you never get a little gun-shy after a big loss?

Never

[muffdiver]

OK, so you never get a little gun-shy after a big loss?

Gun-shy, NO. Pissed off, YES, YES, YES!!!

[Aslan]

After a big loss I become more understanding about the meaning of standard deviation. I am hoping never to get a lesson in outliers, unless they be on the favorable side. That would be more than welcome.

[hitthat16]

After a big loss I become more understanding about the meaning of standard deviation. I am hoping never to get a lesson in outliers, unless they be on the favorable side. That would be more than welcome.

Right now I'm experiencing the good side of standard deviation. I have won on every visit to a casino since November. It kinda makes you feel invincible, but I have to keep telling myself that it's still just a big upswing and eventually it will even out.

[Aslan]

Right now I'm experiencing the good side of standard deviation. I have won on every visit to a casino since November. It kinda makes you feel invincible, but I have to keep telling myself that it's still just a big upswing and eventually it will even out.

I always say to myself, "It's not my money. Only the amount that represents my expected win amount is mine." Of course, the other side is that each time you resume playing it's as if you never played a game in the past; the table has no memory of your previous winning sessions. The other thing I always say to myself is, "You should put aside those winnings attributable to variance to cover future losses that are almost sure to come, which are also attributable to variance." You don't have to do this, but it does make sense, especially if you are sensitive to the extreme ups and downs that are part of the card counting experience.

[SiMi]

Hi, jjjggg

Since you have CVCX and CVData and know how to use them and your game is "super-tight", you are not concerned that your results might indicate a problem with your game. I get that now and see that you are only trying to get some psychological support during this rough patch and you don't need help with the math/stats underlying your game.


But,your story got me thinking about the probability of some hypothetical poor devil, I'll call him "Newbie," STARTING his counting career with a result such as yours. In other words: "What is the probability of being $5,000 behind after 6 hours of play at this level?" I used your basic numbers with a few assumptions.

I simulated a HiLo full index 6D game with 5/6 pen and S17/DAS rules with 4 players, a 12:1 spread, a $25 min bet, 2x$150 at TC >= +5 with a $30,000 BR at 100 Rounds Per Hour. I get a RoR of 1.4%. CVCX shows an edge of almost 1% and a SD per round of about 1.66 units per round.

You say you played 6 hours and lost $5,000 so we'll go with that scary outcome for poor Newbie's first 6 hours of play as a greenie. In units, at a $50 average bet, that's a result of -100 units. At 100 RPH, 6 hours = 600 rounds. CVCX shows the expected win per hour is about $50 or 1 unit per hour times 6 hours of play = 6 units expected win (about $300) over Newbie's first 6 hours of AP.

So,the AEV over 6 hours was 6 units (1 average bet per hour) but Newbie actually lost 100 units. Poor Newbie performed 106 units WORSE than expected! Over those 6 hours, he played 600 rounds at a SD of 1.66 units per round. SD accumulates at the SQUARE ROOT of the number of rounds. So Newbie accumulated 1.66 times sqrt(600) = 41 SD units.

We can calculate the actual deviation Newbie experienced as: (Actual Result (AR) - Accumulated Expected Value (AEV)) / Accumulated SD(ASD). In this case:

-100 units AR - 6 units AEV divided by 41 ASD


or

(-100- 6) / 41 = -2.59 SD

Then, looking at a "Left Side" Z Table, we see that the probability (expressed as a proportion) of a -2.59 SD or worse outcome is 0.0048. As a percentage, this is a 0.48% probability of this result obtaining.

In other words, Newbie has a less than 1/2 of 1% chance of this result for his first 6 hours of play. If it went down this way, Newbie would be VERY unlucky. (But, with a $30k bankroll, he's still alive and well.)


However, you say you've been grinding away for YEARS so this brief, ugly episode has been overwhelmed by the Long Run favorable results you've experienced in building your BR up to $30k.

Best
SiMi

[jjjggg]

Hi, jjjggg

Since you have CVCX and CVData and know how to use them and your game is "super-tight", you are not concerned that your results might indicate a problem with your game. I get that now and see that you are only trying to get some psychological support during this rough patch and you don't need help with the math/stats underlying your game.


But,your story got me thinking about the probability of some hypothetical poor devil, I'll call him "Newbie," STARTING his counting career with a result such as yours. In other words: "What is the probability of being $5,000 behind after 6 hours of play at this level?" I used your basic numbers with a few assumptions.

I simulated a HiLo full index 6D game with 5/6 pen and S17/DAS rules with 4 players, a 12:1 spread, a $25 min bet, 2x$150 at TC >= +5 with a $30,000 BR at 100 Rounds Per Hour. I get a RoR of 1.4%. CVCX shows an edge of almost 1% and a SD per round of about 1.66 units per round.

You say you played 6 hours and lost $5,000 so we'll go with that scary outcome for poor Newbie's first 6 hours of play as a greenie. In units, at a $50 average bet, that's a result of -100 units. At 100 RPH, 6 hours = 600 rounds. CVCX shows the expected win per hour is about $50 or 1 unit per hour times 6 hours of play = 6 units expected win (about $300) over Newbie's first 6 hours of AP.

So,the AEV over 6 hours was 6 units (1 average bet per hour) but Newbie actually lost 100 units. Poor Newbie performed 106 units WORSE than expected! Over those 6 hours, he played 600 rounds at a SD of 1.66 units per round. SD accumulates at the SQUARE ROOT of the number of rounds. So Newbie accumulated 1.66 times sqrt(600) = 41 SD units.

We can calculate the actual deviation Newbie experienced as: (Actual Result (AR) - Accumulated Expected Value (AEV)) / Accumulated SD(ASD). In this case:

-100 units AR - 6 units AEV divided by 41 ASD


or

(-100- 6) / 41 = -2.59 SD

Then, looking at a "Left Side" Z Table, we see that the probability (expressed as a proportion) of a -2.59 SD or worse outcome is 0.0048. As a percentage, this is a 0.48% probability of this result obtaining.

In other words, Newbie has a less than 1/2 of 1% chance of this result for his first 6 hours of play. If it went down this way, Newbie would be VERY unlucky. (But, with a $30k bankroll, he's still alive and well.)


However, you say you've been grinding away for YEARS so this brief, ugly episode has been overwhelmed by the Long Run favorable results you've experienced in building your BR up to $30k.

Best
SiMi

Hi SiMi,

Thanks for calculating that all out for me...and for putting it in perspective. As you suggest, I am still "alive and well." It was a brutal day but I'm ready to get back in the saddle.

[Exoter175]

Thanks for this, Exoter. Tell me, in what way was the "confidence shaking" you took an "expensive lesson"? Do you mean you dropped your bets and then didn't win nearly as much as you should have? That's something I'm worried about.

Yes, essentially. It was the dropping of my "bet" and the schedule at which my bigger bets went out. Cost me a LOT of money on both ends.