Betting/Bankroll Advice

[jjjggg]

So, I've been grinding away for a few years. I started with 10K and, through persistence and lots of hours, I grew it to 30K. I've always made my bets by keeping to the max bet = 1% of bankroll. With a one-hand max bet of $300, my understanding was that a 2-hand max bet of 2x$225 is warranted, but I've been playing it safe and generally sticking to 2x$150 as my max bet. Then one recent day I took a serious drubbing. Lost 5K betting 2x$150 max in about 6 horrible hours. Worst 6 hours ever. Confidence shot to hell.

My question: Was I over-betting? Would you stick to max bet of 2x$150 on next outing or play it safe with a 2x$125 or even 2x$100 max bet?

Thanks for any advice.

-jjjggg

[MidwestTom]

So, I've been grinding away for a few years. I started with 10K and, through persistence and lots of hours, I grew it to 30K. I've always made my bets by keeping to the max bet = 1% of bankroll. With a one-hand max bet of $300, my understanding was that a 2-hand max bet of 2x$225 is warranted, but I've been playing it safe and generally sticking to 2x$150 as my max bet. Then one recent day I took a serious drubbing. Lost 5K betting 2x$150 max in about 6 horrible hours. Worst 6 hours ever. Confidence shot to hell.

My question: Was I over-betting? Would you stick to max bet of 2x$150 on next outing or play it safe with a 2x$125 or even 2x$100 max bet?

Thanks for any advice.

-jjjggg

For over a year and a half I played with a ridiculous high ROR with bet ranges of 5-25 base bet/ min ramping up to$150, depending on the store I was at. The 4th quarter of 2014 took my BR to a whole different level considering I won over 12K. I will note: this BR increase was not until I was down to only $4,400 of my original 10k BR left, which was a 56% decrease in a VERY short time. I also had success with poker, not a much but enough to be able to add to my winnings in 2014. I keep my blackjack BR solely for BJ and will use extra money, (mainly winnings) to play poker and occasionally craps. My problem was that I believed that I competently learned hi/lo and instantaneously thought I was where I needed to be ( as far as skill level, BR, and knowledge all together) and began firing away on the tables. It started out hot, but came crashing down very fast.
I feel as if now that I am finally PROPERLY funded it’s a whole different ball game. Here are some changes of mind/play that I had, and will share that I hope will inspire the new AP, uneducated AP, and most importantly the underfunded AP survive. I can finally say I’m playing like a “Robot” on the tables.
1. The losses don’t seem as critical; in my case I only had 10k put aside to invest in AP BJ play and was OVERBETTING very ignorantly, but had no clue. In the beginning first FEW MONTHS I would literally take a 20% BR reductions from one single sitting and manage to get it back over a string of short minimal gain sessions just to again over bet my BR and take another huge decrease …..
2. My emotions aren’t involved considering the BR increase.. I can legit say that I am finally playing how I should be playing, as well as playing the most profitable game that I am capable of.
3. Travel fees are not a concern. As long as I can squeeze 3-4 consecutive days off at work I take off without notice. More traveling to play better games = +EV
4. Better games. I never realized how much of a difference it makes (for better and worse) playing higher denominations heads up for multiple shoes, especially when you throw in rsa3, S17, ls, etc. .

All and all, I finally quit being stubborn, close minded, and opened my eyes and ears to NONSTOP information on these forums, as well as the books I’ve read and really got fueled by self-education of the game. I began to network with other AP’s as well as picked up some very helpful information regarding casinos, rules, etc. It wasn’t until I listened to advice from other successful AP’s (as far as game play) that I really started increasing my BR..


Alot of guys will tell you to just play one spot opposed to two. You are betting 2x the minimum that is required as well as eating up more cards. The only time I play two hands is when I'm playing lower limit games and the condition is "crowded".

Hope this helps,
Tom

[ZeeBabar]

So, I've been grinding away for a few years. I started with 10K and, through persistence and lots of hours, I grew it to 30K. I've always made my bets by keeping to the max bet = 1% of bankroll. With a one-hand max bet of $300, my understanding was that a 2-hand max bet of 2x$225 is warranted, but I've been playing it safe and generally sticking to 2x$150 as my max bet. Then one recent day I took a serious drubbing. Lost 5K betting 2x$150 max in about 6 horrible hours. Worst 6 hours ever. Confidence shot to hell.

My question: Was I over-betting? Would you stick to max bet of 2x$150 on next outing or play it safe with a 2x$125 or even 2x$100 max bet?

Thanks for any advice.

-jjjggg

why are you playing 6 straight hours and if the casino lets you play that long, they probably see you as a counter wanna be and could care less. Also $25 - 2x $150 is really not a good enough spread on a 6 deck game.

[jjjggg]

I guess I haven't given enough information. I didn't play 6 hours straight in one casino. I also don't use 2x$25 as my minimum bet, except under some conditions for DD. Most of the 6 hours I'm talking about were not even all-play. I was "spotting" myself at 1x$25 and ramping to 2x$150 under low-heat conditions. I was also playing some DD and Wonging out on bad counts. In any case, losses of this size don't happen from the minimum bets. Instead, every time a shoe got hot and I ramped to 2x$150 I got clobbered round after round and shoe after shoe. Look, I know that a $5K swing with 2x$150 as max bet is not unheard of, although it was the first time it happened to me like that. I guess what I'm asking is for some perspective in terms of how you guys (and gals) determine your max. bet? 1% of BR? Or less? What ROR (for overall BR and trip BR) would you be comfortable with if, like me, you're a conservative player?

Thanks again,
-jjjggg

[hitthat16]

Play with whatever ROR you are comfortable with. I can tell you that when I started out, I played with a HUGE risk, and busted out a few times. However, I kept replenishing, and now I have a nice sized bankroll.

Now that my bankroll is larger, I am more inclined to play with lower risk. My accepted level of risk is definitely higher than what others can tolerate, but it's my choice. Just do what you are comfortable with.

P.S. I know how you feel on the big loss. I once lost 32 max bets in the course of 6 hours. It hurt like hell. At the time it was half of my total bank.

[Aslan]

I guess I haven't given enough information. I didn't play 6 hours straight in one casino. I also don't use 2x$25 as my minimum bet, except under some conditions for DD. Most of the 6 hours I'm talking about were not even all-play. I was "spotting" myself at 1x$25 and ramping to 2x$150 under low-heat conditions. I was also playing some DD and Wonging out on bad counts. In any case, losses of this size don't happen from the minimum bets. Instead, every time a shoe got hot and I ramped to 2x$150 I got clobbered round after round and shoe after shoe. Look, I know that a $5K swing with 2x$150 as max bet is not unheard of, although it was the first time it happened to me like that. I guess what I'm asking is for some perspective in terms of how you guys (and gals) determine your max. bet? 1% of BR? Or less? What ROR (for overall BR and trip BR) would you be comfortable with if, like me, you're a conservative player?

Thanks again,
-jjjggg

I think your max bet for one hand was right on the money, but for two hands you were under betting at 2X$150. Of course, you would have lost considerably more had you been betting $225, which I think is the right bet. But I do understand your being risk adverse, and betting less than the recommended bet. You need to run some sims and determine what you are reducing your edge to at each decrease in max bet. You sure don't want to reduce your edge to a break even or worse game. The thing is, you went for a long time without experiencing a serious loss, which was very fortunate. You figure to encounter such down swings as you experienced from time to time. You have more variance playing two hands, but when you bet only 75% of your max bet ($225) on each of two hands you retain the same ROR you had with one hand at max bet ($300). You are conditioned to smaller swings because you started with a $10,000 bankroll. Doesn't it make sense that with 3 times the bankroll and a max bet of 3 times what you started out using, you will experience 3 times the depth and height of your swings? If you are not comfortable with that, you can set your max bet at $180 (or $120) and your min bet at $15 (or $10), if you can find a $15 (or $10) min bet game, and preserve your 1 X !2 betting spread. I have had much deeper than $6,000 swings in a $25 min bet game.

Those years when you were grinding away, did you play two hands in plus counts? You can always go back to the same formula that got you where you are. If you were betting one hand, the upside to continuing to play one hand is that at a $25 game, moving to two hands in a plus count is going to bring you more heat than when you were doing the same in a $10 or $15 game, simply because $25 and up games are watched more closely and the move to two hands is a well known "tell."

[Mickey]

I guess what I'm asking is for some perspective in terms of how you guys (and gals) determine your max. bet? 1% of BR? Or less? What ROR (for overall BR and trip BR) would you be comfortable with if, like me, you're a conservative player?

Not to spoon-feed you an answer (since it really IS a subjective one) but based on how you're talking you sound like you'd want to be a 0.5% to 1% ROR player...

JM 0.02¢

Myself, on other hand, can tolerate a much higher %'age of ROR due to my "subjectivities". ;o)

[Exoter175]

So, I've been grinding away for a few years. I started with 10K and, through persistence and lots of hours, I grew it to 30K. I've always made my bets by keeping to the max bet = 1% of bankroll. With a one-hand max bet of $300, my understanding was that a 2-hand max bet of 2x$225 is warranted, but I've been playing it safe and generally sticking to 2x$150 as my max bet. Then one recent day I took a serious drubbing. Lost 5K betting 2x$150 max in about 6 horrible hours. Worst 6 hours ever. Confidence shot to hell.

My question: Was I over-betting? Would you stick to max bet of 2x$150 on next outing or play it safe with a 2x$125 or even 2x$100 max bet?

Thanks for any advice.

-jjjggg

Drop your denom/spread, refine your game, and build your confidence back up.

That's the only legitimate answer you're going to get that'll make you feel better, since the issue is you, not your game. We all go through rough times, trust me on this. I've had weeks where I've gone through low 5 figure losses as a $5/10/15 player with a 1-8/1-12 spread. Stick to the math, and to your game. Take comfort in the fact that if you are playing a "perfect" game, and you lose $5,000 playing that "perfect" game, then you did everything you could. Don't let your confidence get shot to hell by a loss. I learned that lesson the hard way one time (the confidence shaking one) and it was an expensive lesson, but I learned it nonetheless. Get back on the saddle partner.

[Bodarc]

I guess what I'm asking is for some perspective in terms of how you guys (and gals) determine your max. bet? 1% of BR? Or less? What ROR (for overall BR and trip BR) would you be comfortable with if, like me, you're a conservative player?

jjjggg, I think you need to spend the $80 or so bucks and buy CVCX. It will answer all of your questions like this and many more.

[SiMi]

Hi, jjjggg!

FWIW, I totally agree with Bodarc. Spend the $80 on CVCX and run sims until the cows come home. Play with all the variables including RoR until you get comfortable with exactly what you're doing at the tables.

A 12:1 spread is fine for a 6 deck game. Obviously, you'd like more but heat may not allow it. Check your skills to be sure you're counting and betting properly. Use N0 to get an idea of the odds of being even or ahead after X rounds. If you're playing properly on decent/good games and within your RoR, you should bet what the sims say will generate the numbers you want.

Best of luck!
SiMi

[jjjggg]

Thanks for the CVCX tips, guys, but I've had it for years. And CVData. I know how to calculate ROR, N0, Standard Deviation, etc. And my game is super-tight.

My question is about psychological confidence, not technical parameters.

[jjjggg]

Drop your denom/spread, refine your game, and build your confidence back up.

That's the only legitimate answer you're going to get that'll make you feel better, since the issue is you, not your game. We all go through rough times, trust me on this. I've had weeks where I've gone through low 5 figure losses as a $5/10/15 player with a 1-8/1-12 spread. Stick to the math, and to your game. Take comfort in the fact that if you are playing a "perfect" game, and you lose $5,000 playing that "perfect" game, then you did everything you could. Don't let your confidence get shot to hell by a loss. I learned that lesson the hard way one time (the confidence shaking one) and it was an expensive lesson, but I learned it nonetheless. Get back on the saddle partner.

Thanks for this, Exoter. Tell me, in what way was the "confidence shaking" you took an "expensive lesson"? Do you mean you dropped your bets and then didn't win nearly as much as you should have? That's something I'm worried about.

[muffdiver]

Thanks for the CVCX tips, guys, but I've had it for years. And CVData. I know how to calculate ROR, N0, Standard Deviation, etc. And my game is super-tight.

My question is about psychological confidence, not technical parameters.

That shouldn't BE a question IF you're playing a solid game. You do know the math-------------- right?