Originally Posted by
not-grapedrink
I am glad I finally located the missing parts of my post. I've decided to give up factoring decisions on card counting....until my mind is clearer and I can put my bad experiences behind me and begin to understand what really happened. I've probably played more hands than anyone on this site over the last year (approximately 320 days averaging about 9 hours a day and lots of heads up), and I've come to the conclusion that it doesn't work. ...if my undocumented, anecdotal evidence is any indicator. I've been using hi opt 2 on double deck for $25 and $50 table minimums.
Over the course of time at most tables I think there is a pattern. Most times the table isn't going to be that great. It'll be choppy. You'll win 1 or 2 and the dealer wins 2 or 3 and then you push on some hands.
Then there are the few shoes where you are on fire. You just make every hand, you start with 20's despite negative counts, the dealer busts, or falls short of advertised (ex: you have 18, dealer shows a 9 which implies 19, but instead dealer has an 8 underneath). This can go on a whole shoe but most times the count is negative so you only bet the minimum. You make some money but don't come close to maximizing value....because you have no clue when this is going to happen or how long it will continue. I've missed out on a lot of money only betting the minimum on these shoes. ...because I am unable to predict the future. These are the shoes to press regardless of the count. ...if you have a crystal ball. With enough experience you'll come to see that despite the count you'll still start off with 20's or other solid starting hands and beat the dealer more often than not. ...if things go the way they seemed to have gone during this past year, although I did not keep records, but I'm pretty sure. These stretches usually don't last long. Sometimes half an hour if you're lucky or sometimes only a shoe. ...and you will always know when they are over when you start losing money although you're never really sure that it's over until you look back and see how many hands you lost until you became convinced that it was over, and you hope you quit ahead of the game, which if you're lucky you will.
Then there are the nightmare shoes. You pretty much lose every hand and double down despite the count. TC of +4 and you're still getting non-stop 14, 15, 16, 17 and busting while the dealer gets an endless supply of 20's. This is where we all lose most of our money. The shoe is bad. The math says there is no connection to future hands and we should only focus on the count but anyone playing more than 6 months of heavy blackjack play knows this is bs....in the short run but holds true in the long run, but I have not really played long enough nor am I necessarily representative of the average player. In shoes like this it doesn't matter if the tc is +4 or -4, you're still going to bust out when you hit you're 13 and the dealer is going to get the 6 card 20's. Point is don't throw away money in shit shoes like this when the count is high because the cards are set up in a way where you're probably going to lose it....and the only thing you have in your favor is accurate information as to your "probability" of winning, not your "certainty" of winning.
Point is waiting for the stretch of table where it is running good, and is a positive count is super super super rare....sometimes, but not always, and that is why you need to have such a high max bet, because a 1% or 2% edge is simply not that large an advantage, so you must maximize it when you get it and trust in the math to see you through over the long run. Most often it is positive count and shitty, negative count and good, so don't be afraid to put a big bet in when the count is negative....if you hate money and believe that my limited experience is enough to discredit the math and the billions upon billions of simulations that prove otherwise.
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