Count doesn't matter

[Three]

To be honest, my br is not big enough for $25 dd (3:2) without some luck, but the next games below that are the $5 6 deck, and those games just attract too many idiots

Apparently some idiots refuse to play them.

[Joss]

So if you are spreading 1-6, but ramping incorrectly, it would have the effect of spreading much less, maybe 1-3, which may not even be a +EV situation.

This is the sense I get from OP's posts.

Grapedrink, in a game with bad pen and that spread perfect play will net you about $5/hour. I think you need to reevaluate your approach.

[Nikky_Flash]

grapedrink, is the name a play on "drink the kool-aid"?

No thanks, I'm not thirsty.

I'm guessing , he's using the name from a line in a comedy routine , the only time I've ever heard the word grape drink , was in a Dave chappele live-show....

[Exoter175]

I'm guessing , he's using the name from a line in a comedy routine , the only time I've ever heard the word grape drink , was in a Dave chappele live-show....

Nikky, how long has it been since your college years? That was like at least a 9 month "thing" during my sophomore-junior year, and by "it" I'm not referring to the show.

[Three]

I'm guessing , he's using the name from a line in a comedy routine , the only time I've ever heard the word grape drink , was in a Dave chappele live-show....

I figured he was making a racist statement to offend me and my brothers.

[BigJer]

and those games just attract too many idiots

Makes no difference how someone else plays their hands.

but I am now leaning more towards the set up of cards being more important than the count.

Do you understand that there are for a DD there 1.029901674 X E 166 different ways a 104 cards can be arranged???? What "set up" of the cards are you talking about?

[MidwestTom]

I've decided to give up factoring decisions on card counting. I've probably played more hands than anyone on this site over the last year (approximately 320 days averaging about 9 hours a day and lots of heads up), and I've come to the conclusion that it doesn't work. I've been using hi opt 2 on double deck for $25 and $50 table minimums.

Over the course of time at most tables I think there is a pattern. Most times the table isn't going to be that great. It'll be choppy. You'll win 1 or 2 and the dealer wins 2 or 3 and then you push on some hands.

Then there are the few shoes where you are on fire. You just make every hand, you start with 20's despite negative counts, the dealer busts, or falls short of advertised (ex: you have 18, dealer shows a 9 which implies 19, but instead dealer has an 8 underneath). This can go on a whole shoe but most times the count is negative so you only bet the minimum. You make some money but don't come close to maximizing value. I've missed out on a lot of money only betting the minimum on these shoes. These are the shoes to press regardless of the count. With enough experience you'll come to see that despite the count you'll still start off with 20's or other solid starting hands and beat the dealer more often than not. These stretches usually don't last long. Sometimes half an hour if you're lucky or sometimes only a shoe.

Then there are the nightmare shoes. You pretty much lose every hand and double down despite the count. TC of +4 and you're still getting non-stop 14, 15, 16, 17 and busting while the dealer gets an endless supply of 20's. This is where we all lose most of our money. The shoe is bad. The math says there is no connection to future hands and we should only focus on the count but anyone playing more than 6 months of heavy blackjack play knows this is bs. In shoes like this it doesn't matter if the tc is +4 or -4, you're still going to bust out when you hit you're 13 and the dealer is going to get the 6 card 20's. Point is don't throw away money in shit shoes like this when the count is high because the cards are set up in a way where you're probably going to lose it.

Point is waiting for the stretch of table where it is running good, and is a positive count is super super super rare. Most often it is positive count and shitty, negative count and good, so don't be afraid to put a big bet in when the count is negative.

6:5 less then 50% pen h17 will do that to you my friend.

Best of luck
-Tom

[Three]

You're at the right spot in a 3;2 DD game. But a powerful count isn't necessary at the red chip level. As KJ would say, "you're taxing your brain to chase pennies."

I have to disagree with this one. Nobody should use a count they can't handle but with that said a level 2 count is most valuable to a low BR small stakes player. He won't get the gain of the increased bets at most of his advantage counts because they would be rainbow bets of red and white that just scream counter. The increase in EV for the level 2 count has the a similar percentage increase as a big BR player which doesn't amount to much for someone with a low EV but the gain will be mostly in decreased RoR, decreased N0 and increased SCORE. This is exactly were failure lurks for most underfunded red chippers. The extra EV isn't going to help get to the next level that much faster but the decrease in RoR will greatly decrease the chances of going bust. That helps get around the underfunded red chippers biggest obstacle. The added EV is a small help to getting to the next level but the decrease in N0 helps survival to the long run since long run is an exponential function of N0.

Now this guy may have some real problems that need addressing if his posts weren't trolling but in fact a plea for help. Those that took it as a plea for help have made a lot of good points that may fix his attack. Using a count he can't handle as a master may be another or his only problem. If that is the case switching to an easier count is a must. It sounds like he learned just enough to get himself into trouble to me. He learned to count and maybe learned indices but didn't learn money management or any of the other things that are at least as important as counting to ones success.

[VeryGood]

Casinos must have realized that the OP is the worst BJ player considering they let him play 9hrs a day for 320 days.

[Three]

Casinos must have realized that the OP is the worst BJ player considering they let him play 9hrs a day for 320 days.

And at a DD game no less.

[stopgambling]

TEst yourself against CVBJ to see if you have counting errors .If you are playing that many hours for so many days with a borderline spread vs a maybe 60% DD game. You can not afford to make many small mistakes. i thought I was doing well when i was counting 8-10 hrs straight using only Hi Lo and then i test myself finding far too many errors. Luckily I play a more aggressive game than you but still the errors hurt me. Check your game before dismiss counting does not work. Also if your deck estimation and tc conversion is not accurate enough and you are using hi-opt 2 w asc, that is another probable reason for your poor performance.

[Three]

I have to disagree with this one. Nobody should use a count they can't handle but with that said a level 2 count is most valuable to a low BR small stakes player. He won't get the gain of the increased bets at most of his advantage counts because they would be rainbow bets of red and white that just scream counter. The increase in EV for the level 2 count has the a similar percentage increase as a big BR player which doesn't amount to much for someone with a low EV but the gain will be mostly in decreased RoR, decreased N0 and increased SCORE. This is exactly were failure lurks for most underfunded red chippers. The extra EV isn't going to help get to the next level that much faster but the decrease in RoR will greatly decrease the chances of going bust. That helps get around the underfunded red chippers biggest obstacle. The added EV is a small help to getting to the next level but the decrease in N0 helps survival to the long run since long run is an exponential function of N0.

Now I have results to demonstrate what I am talking about. A red chipper with a 4K BR finds a decent 8 deck game $5 min and thinks he can bet to $95 max with no heat for 1-19 spread. Here is the comparison of HILO and HIPTII/ace side count full indices and HILO full. 8 deck, 1 deck cut off H17, DAS, LS, 1-19 spread ($5-$95):

HIOPT II/Ace side full: $20.41/100 rnds, SD $57.4/100 rnds, N0 19787, c-SCORE $50.54, 13.7% RoR
High low full indices: $19.58/100 rounds, SD $58.47100 rnds, N0 22294, c-SCORE 44.84, 16.0% RoR

I used playall because wonging styles get pretty personal.

Now like many have pointed out the gain from the level 2 count is only $0.83/100 rounds or 4.2%. That is not much but the gain that could have gone to betting higher with the same RoR is now found as a lower RoR. The HILO player is 16.8 % more likely to go bust. That means for every 6 players that go bust using HIOPT ii/ace side there are 7 that go bust using HILO. There is also a significant difference in N0 and c-SCORE. HILO has a N0 that is 12.7% larger than the HIOPT II used here. Most consider 50 to be the borderline for a playable SCORE for a game. This game has a playable c-SCORE of $50.54 for HIOPT II/ace side but HILO falls 10.32% short of being a playable game with a c-SCORE of $44.84.

So as has been pointed out the EV gain for an underfunded red chipper is very small since he will not get to raise his bets to keep RoR the same without making rainbow bets or fractional bets. Rainbow bets slow down the game and you can't make fractional dollar bets. Since that is the case the gain is only 4.2% or $0.83/100 rounds. That is not much and most would consider it not worth the effort. However the underfunded red chipper's future depends on not busting out at a RoR that most would consider way too high. The HIOPT II player is playing full kelly which maximizes BR growth while the HILO player is playing well over full kelly which makes busting out too risky. While the HIOPT II player is playing at an uncomfortable RoR for most people the HILO player is playing above full Kelly and is about 17% more likely to go bust. Add that to HIOPT II reaching N0 at 19787 hands and an EV of $4038.5 while HILO is still risking ruin before hitting N0 for another 2507 hands.

While the extra EV for HIOPT II is a measly $185 when HILO reaches N0 the increased likelihood of surviving to that point is worth far far more to an underfunded red chipper than even a large increase in EV.

[Exoter175]

I figured he was making a racist statement to offend me and my brothers.

Because now you're a black woman? haha

I have to disagree with this one. Nobody should use a count they can't handle but with that said a level 2 count is most valuable to a low BR small stakes player. He won't get the gain of the increased bets at most of his advantage counts because they would be rainbow bets of red and white that just scream counter. The increase in EV for the level 2 count has the a similar percentage increase as a big BR player which doesn't amount to much for someone with a low EV but the gain will be mostly in decreased RoR, decreased N0 and increased SCORE. This is exactly were failure lurks for most underfunded red chippers. The extra EV isn't going to help get to the next level that much faster but the decrease in RoR will greatly decrease the chances of going bust. That helps get around the underfunded red chippers biggest obstacle. The added EV is a small help to getting to the next level but the decrease in N0 helps survival to the long run since long run is an exponential function of N0.

Now this guy may have some real problems that need addressing if his posts weren't trolling but in fact a plea for help. Those that took it as a plea for help have made a lot of good points that may fix his attack. Using a count he can't handle as a master may be another or his only problem. If that is the case switching to an easier count is a must. It sounds like he learned just enough to get himself into trouble to me. He learned to count and maybe learned indices but didn't learn money management or any of the other things that are at least as important as counting to ones success.

That's all well and good, but it sounds like he's not mentally disciplined enough to go beyond a simple Hi/Lo count, as much as you love to ramble on about how moving from a "simple" count to a "complicated" count somehow emboldens your stance on complicated counts being the best, in a realistic setting and game, it won't make a world of difference for him, and what your "other" post failed to account for was "room for error". The more complicated your count becomes, the tighter your ramp becomes, and the higher your EV, essentially. But if you make a simple error in a count that essentially has "no room for error", you'll lose more EV than had you made the same error in a Hi/Lo count.

Considering what this guy has told us so far, I promise you, his discipline would only allow for Hi/Lo and nothing more. Maybe a side-count aces for insurance purposes, but that's it.

Casinos must have realized that the OP is the worst BJ player considering they let him play 9hrs a day for 320 days.

Call the fire department, that burned.

And at a DD game no less.

Ziiiiiing!

Counting is a tool to help you get the job done. Recently, I remodeled my kitchen and put in hardwood floors in the family room. The tools necessary to complete these jobs began to grow. The best places to buy the products and advice to in large portions as well. However, the end result is only as good as the person using the tools. The bottom line cost comes down to the willingness to shop for the best prices and having an idea of the end result you're trying to accomplish. Taking the Pro's advice is good but you're still the one that has to live with the results. Ended up ripping the entire kitchen floor and and starting over because his idea was over the top and not the proper application.

At some point, I had to make a decision for direction. In other words, no matter how you slice it, your quarter is still the one sliding into the circle.

It turned out okay and we get alot of compliments but I still see the flaws since I did the job and it drives me nuts. Next time, the end result will look far better and less expensive because now I have the tools, knowledge, and experience. Same thing in blackjack. To say "counting doesn't matter". It does. It's just not the cure all. I can't imagine trying to complete my job without the necessary tools. I'm talking both remodel and blackjack.

Well said Moses, very well said.



TO the OP: In all honesty, think of this as NASCAR for a minute. No matter how good you are driving (your count method) if you have a lousy pit crew (discipline) you're always going to be "driving" from behind trying to win.

Discipline, in this game, is paramount to all things.