Count doesn't matter

[grapedrink]

I've decided to give up factoring decisions on card counting. I've probably played more hands than anyone on this site over the last year (approximately 320 days averaging about 9 hours a day and lots of heads up), and I've come to the conclusion that it doesn't work. I've been using hi opt 2 on double deck for $25 and $50 table minimums.

Over the course of time at most tables I think there is a pattern. Most times the table isn't going to be that great. It'll be choppy. You'll win 1 or 2 and the dealer wins 2 or 3 and then you push on some hands.

Then there are the few shoes where you are on fire. You just make every hand, you start with 20's despite negative counts, the dealer busts, or falls short of advertised (ex: you have 18, dealer shows a 9 which implies 19, but instead dealer has an 8 underneath). This can go on a whole shoe but most times the count is negative so you only bet the minimum. You make some money but don't come close to maximizing value. I've missed out on a lot of money only betting the minimum on these shoes. These are the shoes to press regardless of the count. With enough experience you'll come to see that despite the count you'll still start off with 20's or other solid starting hands and beat the dealer more often than not. These stretches usually don't last long. Sometimes half an hour if you're lucky or sometimes only a shoe.

Then there are the nightmare shoes. You pretty much lose every hand and double down despite the count. TC of +4 and you're still getting non-stop 14, 15, 16, 17 and busting while the dealer gets an endless supply of 20's. This is where we all lose most of our money. The shoe is bad. The math says there is no connection to future hands and we should only focus on the count but anyone playing more than 6 months of heavy blackjack play knows this is bs. In shoes like this it doesn't matter if the tc is +4 or -4, you're still going to bust out when you hit you're 13 and the dealer is going to get the 6 card 20's. Point is don't throw away money in shit shoes like this when the count is high because the cards are set up in a way where you're probably going to lose it.

Point is waiting for the stretch of table where it is running good, and is a positive count is super super super rare. Most often it is positive count and shitty, negative count and good, so don't be afraid to put a big bet in when the count is negative.

[muffdiver]

Yup, you sure convinced me!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[metronome]

the math says there is no connection to future hands and we should only focus on the count but anyone playing more than 6 months of heavy blackjack play knows this is bs.

huh???

and you say you use Hi Opt II, which was developed primarily for SD (quick ref. to Norms free book).

I'm confused

[grapedrink]

What are you confused about? SD hardly exists anymore. Hi opt 2 with side count aces is pretty much the standard for double deck. The only other system I remember competing was Zen count when I moved up from using hi lo playing 6 deck.

[Exoter175]

I've decided to give up factoring decisions on card counting. I've probably played more hands than anyone on this site over the last year (approximately 320 days averaging about 9 hours a day and lots of heads up), and I've come to the conclusion that it doesn't work. I've been using hi opt 2 on double deck for $25 and $50 table minimums.

Over the course of time at most tables I think there is a pattern. Most times the table isn't going to be that great. It'll be choppy. You'll win 1 or 2 and the dealer wins 2 or 3 and then you push on some hands.

Then there are the few shoes where you are on fire. You just make every hand, you start with 20's despite negative counts, the dealer busts, or falls short of advertised (ex: you have 18, dealer shows a 9 which implies 19, but instead dealer has an 8 underneath). This can go on a whole shoe but most times the count is negative so you only bet the minimum. You make some money but don't come close to maximizing value. I've missed out on a lot of money only betting the minimum on these shoes. These are the shoes to press regardless of the count. With enough experience you'll come to see that despite the count you'll still start off with 20's or other solid starting hands and beat the dealer more often than not. These stretches usually don't last long. Sometimes half an hour if you're lucky or sometimes only a shoe.

Then there are the nightmare shoes. You pretty much lose every hand and double down despite the count. TC of +4 and you're still getting non-stop 14, 15, 16, 17 and busting while the dealer gets an endless supply of 20's. This is where we all lose most of our money. The shoe is bad. The math says there is no connection to future hands and we should only focus on the count but anyone playing more than 6 months of heavy blackjack play knows this is bs. In shoes like this it doesn't matter if the tc is +4 or -4, you're still going to bust out when you hit you're 13 and the dealer is going to get the 6 card 20's. Point is don't throw away money in shit shoes like this when the count is high because the cards are set up in a way where you're probably going to lose it.

Point is waiting for the stretch of table where it is running good, and is a positive count is super super super rare. Most often it is positive count and shitty, negative count and good, so don't be afraid to put a big bet in when the count is negative.

First of all, I must commend you, sir. To be able to log 2800+ hours is a FEAT in and of itself. Not many people can keep up with the workload like KJ and I put in, so if you're being serious about your time and not embellishing it, hats of to you.

Though I will say, I doubt you've seen (in the last 8 months) the sheer number of hands I've seen, because I get the feeling based on your post that you aren't actually playing a high amount of HPH, though you did cite "heads up" play on DD. The amount of hours you'd have to play, I'm almost positive you'd be barred in 95% of the country based on those hours and that denomination.

Lastly, let me say this. Counting does work, I've made it work well in my "first year" of counting, I know KJ does quite wonderfully, and T3 is no slouch either, even ZK who plays in a magical world of make believe is having his "hours" work out well. So to me that tells me something. Either you have a major, major flaw in your game, or you aren't playing a proper game (rules). By chance are you playing 6/5 DD which seems to be the only "cheap" form of DD around these days? Also, are you sure you have the BR to support a 25/50 min DD game? That's a very, very large bankroll.

Something's got to give in your game or rules to put you into this position to make such a statement, because the math isn't going to add up.

OK....then. You have convinced me....counting doesn't work! Despite an underachieving year in 2014, I have made $330 grand in AP play over the last 3 years and better than 2/3 of that (226 grand) has been from card counting. I guess I have just been lucky and am going to quit while I am ahead.

It's hard to take a first time poster seriously in this regard, but I will take you at your word. Just to be certain that you are even playing a +EV game I have two questions: Are you side counting aces with your hi-opt 2? without side counting aces, hi-opt 2 is pretty weak. Second of course is spread. What kind of spread and ramp are you using? It's extremely hard to believe that you can get in that kind of play at double deck to begin with, without wearing out your welcome. Maybe you are able to because they have determined you are still playing a losing game.

My thoughts exactly.

He is definitely playing a -EV game. I'm sure he doesn't even know any play deviations. Probably just counts +2, -2, +2, -2, etc and thinks thats all it takes. After reading his garbage, I want to actually thank him because these are the degenerate gamblers that make it possible for blackjack to still be available to people who know how to turn the tables on the casinos. Plops feed the casinos and then the APs come and take it back. The amount of selective memory that he described of what he always 'thinks' happens on a shoe and what doesn't happen on a shoe is sickening to even hear, because all I see is a degenerate mouthing away at how much of a novice he actually is but thinks he actually knows something and is good at the game to make a profit.

Thanks again and nice first post whether or not this was a troll attempt.

That selective memory tells me he's either reeling from a big loss where he's likely betting way beyond what his BR can support, or he's playing something like a 6/5 game and didn't know the difference, and is basically playing a neutral/negative EV game even with all his "work".

There are definitely times when the count can coincide with wins/losses, but I am now leaning more towards the set up of cards being more important than the count. The frequency of opportunities to make press bets are similar, but I feel less stressed making the big bets even with negative counts because the cards have been running good during the shoe, so I've already been winning, and I feel more likely to win because I've determined that the shoe is set up to be "my shoe." Now obviously there is no certainty but I've been more successful in my limited time on my press bets with this method vs. strictly betting with the count.

For the first few months of last year my spread was pretty low. About 1-4 playing $25. Since the spring until now my spread has gone to about 1-8 in $25 and 1-5 playing $50. I do side count aces. I don't find it all that helpful. I would ramp up 2 or 3 units and then add 1 or 2 units until I got to max bet. I'd lower my bet if I won 1 or 2 max bets. I was about -$10k last year. My player ratings have me at about a $25k loss so that's probably why they welcome me to their casinos.

This year after about 50 hours playing mostly the feel of the table vs. the count I am +$11,000. It was +$15000 but I got greedy as I wasn't happy with grinding out a $1000 win and lost $4k chasing for more playing while exhausted.

From that depiction you just gave us, you're deviating from your count and bet ramp schedule pretty fiercly, and you're more akin to "gambling" than anything. It sounds to me, sorry to say this, that you have zero discipline in your game, which would explain why you've "convinced" yourself that there is something "other" than the count to go by, and there simply isn't.

What are you confused about? SD hardly exists anymore. Hi opt 2 with side count aces is pretty much the standard for double deck. The only other system I remember competing was Zen count when I moved up from using hi lo playing 6 deck.

Fractionally advantageous, sure, but Hi/Lo does just fine for DD. Its not like it was developed solely for 6D, hell, 6D wasn't even out when it came to being. I believe at that point there was only SD/DD, and MAYBE 4D, though I doubt it heavily.

Point is, ANY count could work at ANY game, but its how YOU play that makes the true difference. You're only going to get so many opportunities to hit your index plays, that even missing one in a short session might essentially render your +EV neutralized or at least very, very lessened.

Given the fact that you are coming off like a gambler with little discipline, I'm inclined to suggest you go back to Hi/Lo and sidetrack aces for insurance purposes, and play a more relaxed game, because what you are doing right now isn't going to work out in the long run.

[grapedrink]

I did have a pretty big loss at the end of the year so that's what's led to new trying something new. Close to $7000 over the course of a couple of days strictly following the count. It was pretty devastating. Earlier in the year during the summer I went through a stretch where I lost about $15000 over a couple weeks strictly playing by the count. To be honest, my br is not big enough for $25 dd (3:2) without some luck, but the next games below that are the $5 6 deck, and those games just attract too many idiots and goes too slowly. I've spent almost a year playing that game before moving to double deck.

The rules are pretty good. 3:2, double deck, penetration is not too great (maybe 60%), surrender, das.

My flaw I think is maybe spread. I'm more of a 1-5 or 1-6 spread. I don't really reach to 8 units very often. discipline could be a problem. I can't seem to bring myself to leave when I'm up or down often leaving me to lose most of what I brought. Sometimes I will color up when I reach my goal, walk around, and then sit down at another table and lose a lot. I also try to grind out a win at a bad table waiting for it to turn. Sometimes it works sometimes it doesn't.

The reason I'm trying this out is two fold. 1: it's always bothered me that I couldn't press when I knew that I was in good shoes when the count was negative. 2: it's always bothered me when I knew the shoe was bad but the count was sky high that I would bet max but still lose more often despite what the dealer shows.

I'm not abandoning the count per say. I still keep the prefect count, but over the last couple of weeks I've refrained from betting too high during bad high count shoes, and I've bet higher accounts during good negative count shoes. For now I feel like it's worked out better.

[Exoter175]

I did have a pretty big loss at the end of the year so that's what's led to new trying something new. Close to $7000 over the course of a couple of days strictly following the count. It was pretty devastating. Earlier in the year during the summer I went through a stretch where I lost about $15000 over a couple weeks strictly playing by the count. To be honest, my br is not big enough for $25 dd (3:2) without some luck, but the next games below that are the $5 6 deck, and those games just attract too many idiots and goes too slowly. I've spent almost a year playing that game before moving to double deck.

The rules are pretty good. 3:2, double deck, penetration is not too great (maybe 60%), surrender, das.

My flaw I think is maybe spread. I'm more of a 1-5 or 1-6 spread. I don't really reach to 8 units very often. discipline could be a problem. I can't seem to bring myself to leave when I'm up or down often leaving me to lose most of what I brought. Sometimes I will color up when I reach my goal, walk around, and then sit down at another table and lose a lot. I also try to grind out a win at a bad table waiting for it to turn. Sometimes it works sometimes it doesn't.

The reason I'm trying this out is two fold. 1: it's always bothered me that I couldn't press when I knew that I was in good shoes when the count was negative. 2: it's always bothered me when I knew the shoe was bad but the count was sky high that I would bet max but still lose more often despite what the dealer shows.

I'm not abandoning the count per say. I still keep the prefect count, but over the last couple of weeks I've refrained from betting too high during bad high count shoes, and I've bet higher accounts during good negative count shoes. For now I feel like it's worked out better.

As far as I can see, you have multiple problems here.

1. You are playing a lousy game.
2. You don't have the BR to sustain the denomination you are playing.
3. You have little discipline
4. You're talking about "Desires" with "gambler" lingo
5. You're being superstitious.


As far as "your game" goes, your spread is fine, wouldn't worry about it. Of course, the more you can get in, the better, but at that bet level, anything beyond 1-4 is really risky if you're sinking in the hours you are claiming. You need to shed this idea of a "bad high count shoe". Our true advantage in high counts isn't that we'll win more, no. Its that we'll achieve "more" for our money than we otherwise would have with a negative count. Blackjacks are more common (3:2 play) double downs are more profound (2x pay) and dealer busts on "bust cards" are more common, and in that same area of dealers busting, our splits and DD's become higher percentage pays.

In retrospect, we still have like a 50/50 chance of winning, or below 50% honestly, but its the occurrence of more "advantageous" plays that make the "advantage" for us.

Surely your "only" other option isn't just 5$ 6D table, I'm sure there's a $10 or $15 6D table for you to play. And if there isn't, scout out a new location, because I've been able to murder 6D tables this year because of how I've scouted them and adjusted the hours I've played, and you should be able to do the same and it sounds like you play in a place with better rules than I do.

[Three]

To be honest, my br is not big enough for $25 dd (3:2) without some luck, but the next games below that are the $5 6 deck, and those games just attract too many idiots

Apparently some idiots refuse to play them.

[Stealth]

I did have a pretty big loss at the end of the year so that's what's led to new trying something new. Close to $7000 over the course of a couple of days strictly following the count. It was pretty devastating. Earlier in the year during the summer I went through a stretch where I lost about $15000 over a couple weeks strictly playing by the count. To be honest, my br is not big enough for $25 dd (3:2) without some luck, but the next games below that are the $5 6 deck, and those games just attract too many idiots and goes too slowly. I've spent almost a year playing that game before moving to double deck.

The rules are pretty good. 3:2, double deck, penetration is not too great (maybe 60%), surrender, das.

My flaw I think is maybe spread. I'm more of a 1-5 or 1-6 spread. I don't really reach to 8 units very often. discipline could be a problem. I can't seem to bring myself to leave when I'm up or down often leaving me to lose most of what I brought. Sometimes I will color up when I reach my goal, walk around, and then sit down at another table and lose a lot. I also try to grind out a win at a bad table waiting for it to turn. Sometimes it works sometimes it doesn't.

The reason I'm trying this out is two fold. 1: it's always bothered me that I couldn't press when I knew that I was in good shoes when the count was negative. 2: it's always bothered me when I knew the shoe was bad but the count was sky high that I would bet max but still lose more often despite what the dealer shows.

I'm not abandoning the count per say. I still keep the prefect count, but over the last couple of weeks I've refrained from betting too high during bad high count shoes, and I've bet higher accounts during good negative count shoes. For now I feel like it's worked out better.

Don't mean to be hard but if I were your close friend I would tell you that you are not even close to being a professional advantage player (I assume you have no job or you can not play that much). It kinda like being pregnant, there is no such thing as almost. Your description of your play indicates you do not understand the consequences of many strategically important plays (surrender?) nor do you have a grasp on what bet level you can support or what spread is required to win. Game selection of "maybe 60%"? In poker this is called a tell.

The level of competence demonstrated by your commentary leaves you without justification to announce that card counting does not work. I for one can tell you that it does and I can prove it with my results. I will leave you with the fact that we all understand variance and the sick feeling when it is against you, but the true pros also understand the euphoria of it being on your side and, most importantly, that it is not really very relevant in the long term if your game is solid.

Best of luck and by the way you have come to a place with many accomplished pros who can help if you just listen.

[Joss]

So if you are spreading 1-6, but ramping incorrectly, it would have the effect of spreading much less, maybe 1-3, which may not even be a +EV situation.

This is the sense I get from OP's posts.

Grapedrink, in a game with bad pen and that spread perfect play will net you about $5/hour. I think you need to reevaluate your approach.

[Three]

You're at the right spot in a 3;2 DD game. But a powerful count isn't necessary at the red chip level. As KJ would say, "you're taxing your brain to chase pennies."

I have to disagree with this one. Nobody should use a count they can't handle but with that said a level 2 count is most valuable to a low BR small stakes player. He won't get the gain of the increased bets at most of his advantage counts because they would be rainbow bets of red and white that just scream counter. The increase in EV for the level 2 count has the a similar percentage increase as a big BR player which doesn't amount to much for someone with a low EV but the gain will be mostly in decreased RoR, decreased N0 and increased SCORE. This is exactly were failure lurks for most underfunded red chippers. The extra EV isn't going to help get to the next level that much faster but the decrease in RoR will greatly decrease the chances of going bust. That helps get around the underfunded red chippers biggest obstacle. The added EV is a small help to getting to the next level but the decrease in N0 helps survival to the long run since long run is an exponential function of N0.

Now this guy may have some real problems that need addressing if his posts weren't trolling but in fact a plea for help. Those that took it as a plea for help have made a lot of good points that may fix his attack. Using a count he can't handle as a master may be another or his only problem. If that is the case switching to an easier count is a must. It sounds like he learned just enough to get himself into trouble to me. He learned to count and maybe learned indices but didn't learn money management or any of the other things that are at least as important as counting to ones success.

[Three]

I have to disagree with this one. Nobody should use a count they can't handle but with that said a level 2 count is most valuable to a low BR small stakes player. He won't get the gain of the increased bets at most of his advantage counts because they would be rainbow bets of red and white that just scream counter. The increase in EV for the level 2 count has the a similar percentage increase as a big BR player which doesn't amount to much for someone with a low EV but the gain will be mostly in decreased RoR, decreased N0 and increased SCORE. This is exactly were failure lurks for most underfunded red chippers. The extra EV isn't going to help get to the next level that much faster but the decrease in RoR will greatly decrease the chances of going bust. That helps get around the underfunded red chippers biggest obstacle. The added EV is a small help to getting to the next level but the decrease in N0 helps survival to the long run since long run is an exponential function of N0.

Now I have results to demonstrate what I am talking about. A red chipper with a 4K BR finds a decent 8 deck game $5 min and thinks he can bet to $95 max with no heat for 1-19 spread. Here is the comparison of HILO and HIPTII/ace side count full indices and HILO full. 8 deck, 1 deck cut off H17, DAS, LS, 1-19 spread ($5-$95):

HIOPT II/Ace side full: $20.41/100 rnds, SD $57.4/100 rnds, N0 19787, c-SCORE $50.54, 13.7% RoR
High low full indices: $19.58/100 rounds, SD $58.47100 rnds, N0 22294, c-SCORE 44.84, 16.0% RoR

I used playall because wonging styles get pretty personal.

Now like many have pointed out the gain from the level 2 count is only $0.83/100 rounds or 4.2%. That is not much but the gain that could have gone to betting higher with the same RoR is now found as a lower RoR. The HILO player is 16.8 % more likely to go bust. That means for every 6 players that go bust using HIOPT ii/ace side there are 7 that go bust using HILO. There is also a significant difference in N0 and c-SCORE. HILO has a N0 that is 12.7% larger than the HIOPT II used here. Most consider 50 to be the borderline for a playable SCORE for a game. This game has a playable c-SCORE of $50.54 for HIOPT II/ace side but HILO falls 10.32% short of being a playable game with a c-SCORE of $44.84.

So as has been pointed out the EV gain for an underfunded red chipper is very small since he will not get to raise his bets to keep RoR the same without making rainbow bets or fractional bets. Rainbow bets slow down the game and you can't make fractional dollar bets. Since that is the case the gain is only 4.2% or $0.83/100 rounds. That is not much and most would consider it not worth the effort. However the underfunded red chipper's future depends on not busting out at a RoR that most would consider way too high. The HIOPT II player is playing full kelly which maximizes BR growth while the HILO player is playing well over full kelly which makes busting out too risky. While the HIOPT II player is playing at an uncomfortable RoR for most people the HILO player is playing above full Kelly and is about 17% more likely to go bust. Add that to HIOPT II reaching N0 at 19787 hands and an EV of $4038.5 while HILO is still risking ruin before hitting N0 for another 2507 hands.

While the extra EV for HIOPT II is a measly $185 when HILO reaches N0 the increased likelihood of surviving to that point is worth far far more to an underfunded red chipper than even a large increase in EV.

[Exoter175]

I figured he was making a racist statement to offend me and my brothers.

Because now you're a black woman? haha

I have to disagree with this one. Nobody should use a count they can't handle but with that said a level 2 count is most valuable to a low BR small stakes player. He won't get the gain of the increased bets at most of his advantage counts because they would be rainbow bets of red and white that just scream counter. The increase in EV for the level 2 count has the a similar percentage increase as a big BR player which doesn't amount to much for someone with a low EV but the gain will be mostly in decreased RoR, decreased N0 and increased SCORE. This is exactly were failure lurks for most underfunded red chippers. The extra EV isn't going to help get to the next level that much faster but the decrease in RoR will greatly decrease the chances of going bust. That helps get around the underfunded red chippers biggest obstacle. The added EV is a small help to getting to the next level but the decrease in N0 helps survival to the long run since long run is an exponential function of N0.

Now this guy may have some real problems that need addressing if his posts weren't trolling but in fact a plea for help. Those that took it as a plea for help have made a lot of good points that may fix his attack. Using a count he can't handle as a master may be another or his only problem. If that is the case switching to an easier count is a must. It sounds like he learned just enough to get himself into trouble to me. He learned to count and maybe learned indices but didn't learn money management or any of the other things that are at least as important as counting to ones success.

That's all well and good, but it sounds like he's not mentally disciplined enough to go beyond a simple Hi/Lo count, as much as you love to ramble on about how moving from a "simple" count to a "complicated" count somehow emboldens your stance on complicated counts being the best, in a realistic setting and game, it won't make a world of difference for him, and what your "other" post failed to account for was "room for error". The more complicated your count becomes, the tighter your ramp becomes, and the higher your EV, essentially. But if you make a simple error in a count that essentially has "no room for error", you'll lose more EV than had you made the same error in a Hi/Lo count.

Considering what this guy has told us so far, I promise you, his discipline would only allow for Hi/Lo and nothing more. Maybe a side-count aces for insurance purposes, but that's it.

Casinos must have realized that the OP is the worst BJ player considering they let him play 9hrs a day for 320 days.

Call the fire department, that burned.

And at a DD game no less.

Ziiiiiing!

Counting is a tool to help you get the job done. Recently, I remodeled my kitchen and put in hardwood floors in the family room. The tools necessary to complete these jobs began to grow. The best places to buy the products and advice to in large portions as well. However, the end result is only as good as the person using the tools. The bottom line cost comes down to the willingness to shop for the best prices and having an idea of the end result you're trying to accomplish. Taking the Pro's advice is good but you're still the one that has to live with the results. Ended up ripping the entire kitchen floor and and starting over because his idea was over the top and not the proper application.

At some point, I had to make a decision for direction. In other words, no matter how you slice it, your quarter is still the one sliding into the circle.

It turned out okay and we get alot of compliments but I still see the flaws since I did the job and it drives me nuts. Next time, the end result will look far better and less expensive because now I have the tools, knowledge, and experience. Same thing in blackjack. To say "counting doesn't matter". It does. It's just not the cure all. I can't imagine trying to complete my job without the necessary tools. I'm talking both remodel and blackjack.

Well said Moses, very well said.



TO the OP: In all honesty, think of this as NASCAR for a minute. No matter how good you are driving (your count method) if you have a lousy pit crew (discipline) you're always going to be "driving" from behind trying to win.

Discipline, in this game, is paramount to all things.