Amount of EV to sacrifice as cover play

[Exoter175]

I can't remember if you've got a tap yet. It tends to change ones perspective a bit. Initially, you work so hard to get your game to a winning level. That requires skill, persistance, patience, discipline, and a sound finanical plan...sort of like starting a business. After the tap, you must determine what's important to you AND what's important to them...sort of like getting married. That is when one begins to adopt a less is better mentality. Less players, less decks, less time invested, less hassles. So in order to achieve the same income the step up is inevitable.

I think I read in another thread where KJs profits were $300k over the last 3 years. The temptation is certainly there for me to want to take on those type of challenges. There is nothing to hold me back. But knowing oneself is key. I'd prefer my ferris wheel to the rollar coaster ride he's on.

I haven't had a tap yet. My closest thing to any scare was the one "Cheques play" call I had nearly a year ago. I "want" to make the step up in play, who doesn't? More HPH, more +EV, a mathematical shortcut to my "end game". With that, the risks grow exponentially and that's why I'm more curious about what caused each and every player to "step up" their game, especially those of the longevity type. Just so I'm not flying blind here. I'm the "student" type on this forum. I'll ask the stupid questions if I need to, so I have every answer, every angle accounted for when I make my decisions on my final test

It sounds like you think they have you pegged but will tolerate your action. Eventually lifetime win will get a BO no matter what they think or will tolerate. Just because you haven't gotten BOed yet doesn't mean you will never be. At this point they probably won't tolerate bigger action from you because they know what you are doing and that would make you a bigger threat. After you get that BO and maybe flyered, information shared to casinos that share info and/or put in one of the network books you will regret showing you face so much that all the personnel will never forget you to make the same money you could have without all the exposure betting bigger. Flash forward a few years after the BO and the guys you got so chummy with they will still remember your name are now working at other casinos. Now you can't even play them unrated. It is all a learning experience but at some point every casino decides you have won too much over your entire play there and refuse your action. There are many styles of play for getting money. Some burn games and make it so they can't return to an area ever in exchange for huge short term wins. Others put great stock in longevity not playing anywhere for too long at a time or too frequently in any calender time frame and never win too much on any visit or any calender time frame. They don't want anything about them or their play to be memorable.

You say you play marathon sessions, win huge amounts, play almost every day of the week for smaller stakes, become very memorable to everyone from dealer to the highest ranking suit and you think that is the path to longevity. There are casinos that will tolerate such things but they are few and far between. I hope you can get away with this approach for a long time. A lot of it can work but the goals of tremendous hours played at a handful of joints will not last long. You seem to be trying to model hours put in to what KJ does and think you will have similar longevity but KJ plays very short sessions and moves to the next casino in a city with hundreds of casinos. It sounds like you have a handful to spread your action around to and play marathons to get the same hours and somehow think that will result in similar longevity. It won't.

At this point I would be afraid to change to more aggressive betting at these casinos if I were you as well. You won't last long with your track record. I wish you longevity my friend but I think this will end in a lesson of what not to do for you. The strategy of not doing things counters are expected to do works pretty well but a part of the success of the strategy is to not give them enough of a sampling at any time to think you are a counter. It will be interesting to see how this works out.

You're making a LOT of assumptions about what I post T3.

Let me correct a few of them for you.

1. I do NOT believe the casino has me "pegged" as a counter at all, in fact, I believe they have me pegged as a "ploppy" who breaks up his usual sessions of VP/Machine play, with blackjack.
2. The only soul in the building that I believe even has the slightest clue, is a lifelong friend of mine who I know won't say a word, and who isn't going to be with them much longer as he moves "out" of the industry.
3. You've got the "worry" backwards. I'm not worried about switching denominations and getting the tap because they "know", I'm worried that switching denominations would expose me to the people who have long assumed I've been nothing more than a ploppy. Keep in mind T3, they've got nearly a decade of "facetime" on me. Only in the last 8 or 9 months have I been a "counter". Its not like the day I started counting I picked a "new store" and we started our relationships off right then and there. Most of these guys on the floor or dealing to me, I've known since they started their careers at the location. Hell, I've "broken in" 1/4 of the dealers at this place.

4. The area that I play in, I'm not even REMOTELY concerned about the guys I've been chummy with "moving up to other casinos" and the like. That might be a concern in Vegas or AC, that isn't a concern "here". This is your typical Midwest 9-5 working crowd (not really with the hours, but the mentality). From Ops to Dealers, they come in work, make money, leave, try not to get their hands dirty. The only guys that are getting BO'd from this place are the "hit and run" or "burn them down" types. I know several other players who, like me, play the longevity game in this area, and not one of them has been BO'd from the tables we "share", though not one of us dares move up denomination either. One guy in particular has been doing this for 30-40 years, and at one of my stores for 20+ years, and the floor guys have no clue he's a counter. I'd tell you how I know that to be true, but that's probably a little too personal and private.

5. My "marathon" hours aren't nearly as marathon as you seem to think. Its not like I'm playing one table for 28 hours straight. Most "sessions" are 12 hours or less, and most of those "sessions" are total AP play, which includes VP/Machine stuff breaking up the much smaller table shifts. I only ever see maybe 6 shoes in one "sitting" at a table before I'm gone. I table hop frequently with most "table time" being about 1.5-2 shoes" and I WI/WO often from those. I cover multiple shifts in that time, sometimes it'll be timed to hit all three shifts in a day. I get the impression that you think I'm sitting at one table for 12 hours a day just going to town and letting the chips stack up. Absolutely not. How do you think its possible for me to rathole as many chips as I do, if I'm sitting at one table under the same 15 cameras? I'd be a dead man already. Hit 1 table for 2 shoes, rathole 3-4 chips, hit another for 3-4, etc. At the end of the day I've ratholed $200-300 worth of chips, or more depending on session length and for the most part "broken even" to the BI/CU counts. The only times I "win big" are in max/super max scenarios, and I get the hell out pretty quickly thereafter. My true "big wins" are from the longer 12-16 hour sessions, where I've managed to make $50-100 per "table sitting" while ratholing quite a few of those, and then just doing that all day long.

6. Yes, the issue is that I only have a handful of casinos to go to, and I'm worried if I raise my denomination/bet level that I'd be discovered and "risk" losing the hours. Keep in mind, T3. I've mentioned that I put in over 2000 hours last year in about an 7-8 month window. Divide that up amongst 5 stores in the 40/25/15/10/10 and you've got what? 800 hours, 500 hours, 300 hours, 200 hours, 200 hours at each store? Its not like I'm playing 2000 hours at one place, in one sitting.

7. Not doing what typical counters do is what garners the longevity in the first place. While I do aspire to what KJ is doing in terms of longevity, I don't model my game after his. We play very different games because of the surroundings we are in. If I "could" play hit and run at 100 casinos, I'd certainly be doing that. But "hit and run" or "burn them down" just aren't options for me. In the last year lone playing the "longevity" game, I've likely earned more theoretical profits than I'd have earned with either of those two play styles in my current location. It isn't a huge "concern" to continue playing the way I have played indefinitely, but the reason this has been brought up at all is the comments from my esteemed colleagues curious about why I'm not raising my denominations or playing a higher +EV game. The answers for those curiosities is simply the "fear" I have for getting the TAP if I did make the transition. I have no doubt I can continue what I'm doing for at least another 5 years or so with the way things have been going. Your concerns about "face time" on the cameras is a legitimate one, but what's more risk? "hit and run"/"Burn it down" game play or the facetime of a "regular". If you ask me, the riskier facetime option is that of the "hit and run"/"Burn it down" approach, at least in regards to limited stores.

8. Also, keep in mind T3, the majority of my play is done in a state where I'm "protected" by the law.

[ZenFrancisco]

[Exoter175]

The game became progessively boring, the people annoying, and the pit in small casinos ridiculously anal. Plus I was beginning to feel sorry for my opponent.
I can't play most and wouldn't want to play the others.

2000 hours is a looaaad of blackjack. You really do like to play. 1000 hours per year would've been tops for me. 40/25/15/10/10 I assume 40 is your favorite place and perhaps closest to home base. If so, this is not the place to take unnecessary risks. You could lose 3 places for the price of this one.

Correct, which is why I generally don't take the "home base" for much in terms of shoe by shoe or session by session. I keep my +EV low there for appearances sake while remaining "worthwhile" to play. The three "tail end" casinos my "game" is entirely different and the most "likely" candidates for me to ever "take it to the next level".