ImpressiveOriginally Posted by Exoter175
To go with this, its imperitive to "feel" out what a "threatening" bet might be to the house. Its important as a player of our nature to really sit back and just observe what is going on with the every day interactions of dealer and floor and so forth.
I got SPOOKED one time when I heard "checks play" come out from my dealer when I had tossed a "healthy" max out there. Played it off like the great actor that I am, and nothing happened. But I've heard conflicting stories about what "Checks play" really means from multiple sources, but the fact that I had heard JUST ONCE that it meant there was "Suspicious play" on my part was enough to spook me, though in this situation it may have been nothing more than a "protocol" remark. And, as I later found out, it was indeed a protocol call. I relaxed a little bit after I heard that, but it still scared the pants off of me when I heard it.
Lucky, more than anything I guess. According to this forum my win rate is absurd, so (even before finding that bit out) I take every precaution I can to disguise the wins from the house. I may not be the best counter ever, but I've got to be pretty high up there in my ability to rathole and cover my sleight of hand moves. Its like a game within a game and I get a little enjoyment out of it.
So, then, by your analysis "cover" is really only a theoretical "thing" in that mid tier level? With it being not needed at red chip level, and a "waste" at black and above? I guess I see what you are saying, though I am absolutely "against" forfeiting EV for cover in the sense of awkward and erroneous plays. I will, however, reduce my spread/ramp as needed to stay "Unnoticed" in my play, which I guess is really a form of sacrificing EV for "cover", but wouldn't you agree that's more along the lines of sacrificing EV for longevity, rather than cover?Boy, I don't like the wording of this thread. I don't care for the words 'sacrifice' and 'EV' together.
Card counter play to a very, very slim edge, if they do everything correctly. As a general rule, you just can't afford to give back any of this razor thing margin. It effects not only profits, but as bigplayer stated, N0.
At red chip level spreading up to $100, the rules and condition (crowding) are generally worse and margins, even slimmer and you really can't give any back. More importantly, you don't need to at these levels. If you are attracting heat at those levels, the store is ultra sweaty and cover isn't going to help much anyway.
At the mid range, green to mid/chunky black that I play, most cover is too costly (in EV and N0) and I just don't think it is beneficial in most cases. Bad benefit/cost ratio. There are a few exceptions, particularly at DD where you have slightly bigger margins and a couple cover moves may buy you just a bit, but I'm not going to get in to that.
Higher levels, black spreading to whatever, is out of my league. I would think your play is watched so closely, that cover isn't going to buy much. It just isn't going to fool anyone, but I will leave that for bigplayer and others that play those levels to share their opinions.
Also, I had no idea what level you were playing until now, how in the world do you get away with it? I imagine, obviously, that you've done your research and homework on longevity, shifts, scouting, and whatnot to be able to make such a play possible, but what are you spreading? You had mentioned once that you suspect one or more of the floor/dealer guys "knows" but allows it within a certain tolerance level. Are you capable of sustaining such play, or close to it, at all the locations you play, or does it vary as wildly as I'd imagine?
Seriously, when I'm in vegas this year you need to let me buy you a drink or something somewhere "off site" so I can pick your brain.
"Checks play" is said for 2 reasons. One is for the supervisor to be informed (not good for us). The other is to let it be known to the player he is betting that much. Like if someone is flat betting quarters and randomly puts in a purple chip (accident), the dealer is kinda saying, "Whatever is in that circle is going to be your bet".
It is said in craps, too, sometimes (well usually the term "All goes in the field / on the pass / in the come" is said). So if a player walks up to the table, puts $500 in black in the field, the dealer is saying "You have $500 in the field", to alert the player that money is being placed as a bet (and not asking for change).
Sometimes it is said in baccarat. Baccarat players love to go from table minimum to table max. Sometimes, if the dealer pulls out the wrong card in the wrong order, the players will put out their max bet the following round. If they lose, they call over the floor and say they lost because the dealer pulled a card out in the wrong order from the previous round.
About the max bet / store tolerance thing. I was playing a semi-max bet of mid black. Nothing too sweaty, but a little bit of attention (I just got seated), so that was normal. A few rounds later, I increased my bet by one black chip. Supervisor looks at my bet and tries to count how many blacks there were. Once she figured out there was an extra black on top, she immediately pulled out a sheet to take notes and called upstairs. Next round I dropped my bet by $100, and she lost quite a bit of interest fairly quickly.
"Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]
In most places the cheques play is call is just protocol and not a big deal. All you have to do is listen to how the dealer calls cheques play and watch the reaction to the call. When it is merely protocol and not a flag for catching counters it is to tell the suits you are playing action that is large enough that it might be at a level that requires chip exchange tracking. The suits have to keep track of where every chip of a certain denomination or higher goes and the dealer is responsible for tracking where they go to tell the suit if he is asked about their absence from the chip tray.
The dealer has enough to keep track of so the call is made but the dealer is still expected to be able to account for missing chips and assist in balancing the chip tray with who left with what in just raw totals as well as chips. Regular shortages bring suspicion of theft or collusion on the dealer or other casino staff. Ratholing to vigorously can result in the dealer being surveilled which is not good for you if you are playing at the table or you being nailed as a ratholer as surveillance figures out from tape just whose stacks lost chips without betting them. Once pegged as a ratholer all missing chips are assigned to you every time you play and you will always show larger wins than you actually had.
The key to successful ratholing is to only rathole when you can have the chips assigned to another player. If you are the only one betting green ratholing green is futile. They know either the dealer stole the missing chips or you have them. If a player refuses to color up and the dealer must guess what he left with the suit will know that the dealer is guessing and slop will be in the chip count for those denomination chips that the guy left with. If several people are playing green mild green ratholing will likely go unnoticed.
Be aware of how often the pit come and looks at the chip tray and everyone stacks. When this happens he is balancing the chip tray and the window for ratholing is defined. Lammers are placed in the chip rows to make counting at a glance a snap. If the suit is constantly telling a dealer to put lammers in they probably keep pretty close tabs on the chip tray. If dealers have unlammered rows in their chip tray most of the time the place doesn't make as regular of checks of the chip tray. This is a push and pull of game speed versus ease or frequency of counting the chip tray at a glance. The shorter the window between the suit checking the chip tray the more likely they will peg you as a ratholer. Remember if you are too aggressive either you will end up playing at a table with dedicated surveillance to figure out if the dealer is stealing or what other explanation there is for the shortage. The other you are caught trying to sneak chips into your pocket. Lots of players put chips in their pocket but sneaking them in is a red flag.
My philosophy is the worst thing that can happen to me is getting nailed as a ratholer. Moves to my pocket should never look like they are trying to be done secretly. Always have a pocket you empty of all chips and turn inside out in the process or shake around in checking so more than one chip would rattle that clay rattle chips make so you seem to be gladly helping them balance their chip tray when you color up. If you can get the suits to trust your assistance in performing their duties you are golden in so many ways. If you are seen as a problem to proper execution of their duties you will find more issues with the casino in the future.
Oh yeah this was about "cheques play calls". Listen to how the dealer calls cheques play and how the suit reacts to it. If it prompts a phone call from the pit the call is something that brings heat. If the suit doesn't even bother coming over or just gives a glance as to how big your bet is and walks away, it is no big deal. If the dealer makes the call loudly or in a panicked or stressed voice that could be trouble. If the dealer makes a lower call either made not even trying to be heard or just like in a whatever type voice and volume it is just procedure and he isn't even trying to get a reaction from the pit. A good dealer will be able to report your action though. They are expected to be able to. Some levels of action may get interest after a cheques play call while some lower levels may not with the same pit personnel. This helps define tolerance thresholds so any cheques play call is worth watching the reaction of the pit not just yours. Just remember the pit may already have players pegged as ploppies so disinterest doesn't mean that level is OK but intertest means that level is not OK or the chips bet need to be tracked and the suit has nothing better to do so he watches the game.
Last edited by Three; 01-14-2015 at 06:29 AM.
Bold: And that's pretty much the realm I live in on the table.
As for the "Cheques play" call, like I said, I had heard about it before and seen it in action, but the first time you hear it get called on your play its a little unexpected. Having been so "new" to counting at the time, it did spook me a little, despite knowing in my mind it was nothing more than protocol.
Its kind of like when people start talking about card counters on packed table. You know they aren't talking about you and just making "small talk" with the dealer, but that little voice in your head says "uh oh" when it gets brought up, even though you're really not worried about it.
Thank you for your insight KJ.I'll use small print rather than my traditional big print because I have a lot to say.I use a variety of different spreads and ramps. I won't discuss exact numbers. I have done far too much of that already, but I will share some of my findings on Vegas in a general sense. These are my views on conditions, my very general profile if you will. Keep in mind, that I moved to Vegas 5 years ago (Dec 2009), so these views/principals are based on current conditions. I am not influenced by better games of 10, 20 or 30 years ago, when you could spread bigger, and they though nothing of bigger action, nor people showing up with a suitcase full of money wanting to play anonymously. That's not the Vegas I know. I wish I had experienced those days, but to me they are just hearsay. Basically like a myth.
I have tailored my game and attack to these principals with longevity as my primary concern:
1.) Vegas doesn't offer the best games. Much better games/conditions elsewhere. The advantage of Vegas in quantity of playable (subjective) games in close proximity.
2.) Double deck games are a counter trap. If you don't like that term, just know, that they are severely hawked (watched) and protected, meaning quick backoffs.
3.) Spreading to 2 hands draws attention and is not tolerated very well.
4.) There are definite “thresholds”, meaning amounts that once you hit or cross it, you will be watched more closely and draw more attention. I will get into more on the thresholds in a minute.
These findings are based on my own experiences, discussions with a couple pit friends, and experiences of a couple other players, whose opinion I value. Every time I share one of these views, there will be someone that responds, “But I was in Vegas 2 weeks ago and played the DD game at XXXX for 8 hours with no heat”. Good for you. 1.8 percent of folks that jump from the Golden Gate Bridge live. My views are about what occurs the majority of time and what to do to to achieve any kind of longevity. I tailor my game plan and plan of attack based on the 98.2 percent, not the 1.8 percent.
Now, back to thresholds. The threshold for the mid level that I play is generically $500. This is the generic number that when you hit it, you immediately draw more attention, it takes you to a different level in the eyes of the casino. There may be higher thresholds for higher levels of play, that's out of my league. This is a very generic number. Some places it is more, some smaller places less. Some places it is more or less at certain times (crowded conditions). You develop a specific profile for every casino that you play regularly. What is tolerated at certain times and even by different pit people. I won't discuss these specifics, but this generic $500 figure is a good generic starting point.
In my opinion, identifying these thresholds and playing beneath them, combined with short sessions is the key to longevity. Short sessions allows you to sort of play off the radar. You never show too much information in one sitting or session. Short sessions will also keep your wins more moderate. You will rarely have that big monster win that also draws concern and attention.
One final thing about playing under the threshold, more in the comfort or better tolerated level. Some players identify such a threshold level, say $500 and set their max bet right up against it at $475 or $450. I don't do that. If I identify a threshold point of $500, I am max betting $400.
If you bet an odd amount like $475 or even $450, there are two ways to do so. One a large stack of green, which the pit and EITS can't really distinguish from the $500 threshold amount that you are trying to stay below. If you wager $475 or $450 using black and green, you begin to slow down the pay out process, especially blackjack and surrender on the dealers part and insurance on the players part. (some places are required to actually breakdown the wager, moving the green to a separate small stack before paying). Once I get to my max bet point. I don't want to do anything to slow down the game. I want things to move along as quickly as possible...boom....boom....boom. Get through the shoe and exit as quickly as possibleproviding the shortest window for anyone who might be looking.
And yes, I believe there are pit folks who have identified me and look the other way because they know my pattern of staying within the tolerance level and short sessions. Most pit people don't want to back you off. It's bad for business to tell someone they can't play in front of other players. Even if they try to ask you to step away first. It really is bad for business. But they don't want to have to answer for you either. Short sessions, staying within tolerated betting levels and moderate wins as opposed to bigger win, allows them the choice to look the other way. Not all, but some, I would even say many, will take that option.
One more question, just out of curiosity.
Suppose your play was confined to an area with limited stores. Lets say you have 10 stores within a 35 minute drive from your home, and each store is probably a 10-20 minute drive from the other. Would you still stick with the mid level play and short sessions?
Reason I ask is because while we do have a very similar approach to the game in terms of what we "look" for and what we are "cautious" against, and in general the "longevity" that we'd like to attain; would you still go with the "quick sessions" with an extremely limited number of daily stores, or would you consider dropping your "play level" and churn out longer sessions?
I ask this because, as you might now, I'm a "lower limit" player and I churn out long session after long session at a handful of stores on a rotation. I feel that (based on my geographical location) if I were to up my "limits" in play, that I'd be reduced to shorter sessions and in general see far less hours of annual play, but be playing on marginally better games. The offset, to me, doesn't seem like my area could support the play. As it sits, my average bet is just under $25, still as a red chipper. I logged just over 2,000 hours last year in about 5 of these stores in a split of about 40/25/15/10/10 in each store, and I fear that if I were to play a higher denomination table (Green chipping) with the "same strategy" I'd have to reduce my hours by more the +EV I'd generate by the transition. Is this something you've ever "felt" or ran into? A "growing pain" if you will? Or am I just being silly? Or am I just regionally confined to play my comfortable game without much room for strategy growth? Were the quantity of games in Vegas a determining factor in your move, or was that completely unrelated?
I've been considering for a few months now, sacrificing some of my "goal" hours to get in a little bit of travel this year to "better" games where they don't know me, and the heat is even less of an issue than it is here (and its rather non existent here).
Problem with that is I don't ever want to get the tap. I want to play this game at an acceptable level and profit margin until my eyes bleed and I'm at retirement level. It might be attainable, it might not, but I'll admit to the fact that I'm hesitant, perhaps even scared to step my game up even to a green chip level.
All of what you say is spot on. Even if you set a lower level, say $200 or $300, if you play for more than a relatively short period of time you must be prepared for more camo than I have ever hear anyone discuss on the forum (I'm speaking of DD). It's not just the amount bet, but the amount of time you bet it. If you were a pit boss/EITS and the same guy repeated the same pattern of max bet in plus counts over and over again in the same session, its like saying, "In your face!"I'll use small print rather than my traditional big print because I have a lot to say.
I have tailored my game and attack to these principals with longevity as my primary concern:
1.) Vegas doesn't offer the best games. Much better games/conditions elsewhere. The advantage of Vegas in quantity of playable (subjective) games in close proximity.
2.) Double deck games are a counter trap. If you don't like that term, just know, that they are severely hawked (watched) and protected, meaning quick backoffs.
3.) Spreading to 2 hands draws attention and is not tolerated very well.
4.) There are definite “thresholds”, meaning amounts that once you hit or cross it, you will be watched more closely and draw more attention. I will get into more on the thresholds in a minute.
These findings are based on my own experiences, discussions with a couple pit friends, and experiences of a couple other players, whose opinion I value. Every time I share one of these views, there will be someone that responds, “But I was in Vegas 2 weeks ago and played the DD game at XXXX for 8 hours with no heat”. Good for you. 1.8 percent of folks that jump from the Golden Gate Bridge live. My views are about what occurs the majority of time and what to do to to achieve any kind of longevity. I tailor my game plan and plan of attack based on the 98.2 percent, not the 1.8 percent.
Now, back to thresholds. The threshold for the mid level that I play is generically $500. This is the generic number that when you hit it, you immediately draw more attention, it takes you to a different level in the eyes of the casino. There may be higher thresholds for higher levels of play, that's out of my league. This is a very generic number. Some places it is more, some smaller places less. Some places it is more or less at certain times (crowded conditions). You develop a specific profile for every casino that you play regularly. What is tolerated at certain times and even by different pit people. I won't discuss these specifics, but this generic $500 figure is a good generic starting point.
In my opinion, identifying these thresholds and playing beneath them, combined with short sessions is the key to longevity. Short sessions allows you to sort of play off the radar. You never show too much information in one sitting or session. Short sessions will also keep your wins more moderate. You will rarely have that big monster win that also draws concern and attention.
One final thing about playing under the threshold, more in the comfort or better tolerated level. Some players identify such a threshold level, say $500 and set their max bet right up against it at $475 or $450. I don't do that. If I identify a threshold point of $500, I am max betting $400.
If you bet an odd amount like $475 or even $450, there are two ways to do so. One a large stack of green, which the pit and EITS can't really distinguish from the $500 threshold amount that you are trying to stay below. If you wager $475 or $450 using black and green, you begin to slow down the pay out process, especially blackjack and surrender on the dealers part and insurance on the players part. (some places are required to actually breakdown the wager, moving the green to a separate small stack before paying). Once I get to my max bet point. I don't want to do anything to slow down the game. I want things to move along as quickly as possible...boom....boom....boom. Get through the shoe and exit as quickly as possible
And yes, I believe there are pit folks who have identified me and look the other way because they know my pattern of staying within the tolerance level and short sessions. Most pit people don't want to back you off. It's bad for business to tell someone they can't play in front of other players. Even if they try to ask you to step away first. It really is bad for business. But they don't want to have to answer for you either. Short sessions, staying within tolerated betting levels and moderate wins as opposed to bigger win, allows them the choice to look the other way. Not all, but some, I would even say many, will take that option.
Last edited by Aslan; 01-15-2015 at 05:19 AM.
Aslan 11/1/90 - 6/15/10 Stormy 1/22/95 - 8/23/10... “Life’s most urgent question is: what are you doing for others?” — Martin Luther King, Jr.
I completely disagree with this one....BIG diff betwn visiting and living there....spread, baby, spread everywhere you "visit"Anyone visiting Vegas should read the 4 "commandments" of KJ.
I trust the view of a guy who has been earning a living in that town for 5 years.
My experience strongly confirms #1,2 and 4, and I have no experience to make a comment on #3.
It sounds like you think they have you pegged but will tolerate your action. Eventually lifetime win will get a BO no matter what they think or will tolerate. Just because you haven't gotten BOed yet doesn't mean you will never be. At this point they probably won't tolerate bigger action from you because they know what you are doing and that would make you a bigger threat. After you get that BO and maybe flyered, information shared to casinos that share info and/or put in one of the network books you will regret showing you face so much that all the personnel will never forget you to make the same money you could have without all the exposure betting bigger. Flash forward a few years after the BO and the guys you got so chummy with they will still remember your name are now working at other casinos. Now you can't even play them unrated. It is all a learning experience but at some point every casino decides you have won too much over your entire play there and refuse your action. There are many styles of play for getting money. Some burn games and make it so they can't return to an area ever in exchange for huge short term wins. Others put great stock in longevity not playing anywhere for too long at a time or too frequently in any calender time frame and never win too much on any visit or any calender time frame. They don't want anything about them or their play to be memorable.
You say you play marathon sessions, win huge amounts, play almost every day of the week for smaller stakes, become very memorable to everyone from dealer to the highest ranking suit and you think that is the path to longevity. There are casinos that will tolerate such things but they are few and far between. I hope you can get away with this approach for a long time. A lot of it can work but the goals of tremendous hours played at a handful of joints will not last long. You seem to be trying to model hours put in to what KJ does and think you will have similar longevity but KJ plays very short sessions and moves to the next casino in a city with hundreds of casinos. It sounds like you have a handful to spread your action around to and play marathons to get the same hours and somehow think that will result in similar longevity. It won't.
At this point I would be afraid to change to more aggressive betting at these casinos if I were you as well. You won't last long with your track record. I wish you longevity my friend but I think this will end in a lesson of what not to do for you. The strategy of not doing things counters are expected to do works pretty well but a part of the success of the strategy is to not give them enough of a sampling at any time to think you are a counter. It will be interesting to see how this works out.
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