Odds of making 20

[privador81]

I have tried to find odds, when player makes 20 total any number of cards using basic strategy H17
I have promo in my casino and i cant find any info on that
I assume the odds should be between 13-20% Any help?

If i do some variance hitting 14 vs 2 or 3. 17 vs how the odds change?

[Exoter175]

I have tried to find odds, when player makes 20 total any number of cards using basic strategy H17
I have promo in my casino and i cant find any info on that
I assume the odds should be between 13-20% Any help?

If i do some variance hitting 14 vs 2 or 3. 17 vs how the odds change?

I believe the % is somewhere around 17.5% to make a final hand 20 playing by basic strategy, with of course adjustments raising and lowering that percentage based on the deck composition and game rules.

As for your "variance" on hitting index decisions or "non hit hands" I honestly couldn't tell you, and I'm unsure what you mean by "I have a promo in my casino".

[Joss]

The value of deviating towards more hits will depend on how much the promo is worth. Working this out exhaustively will probably be a lot of grunt work but you should be able to ballpark it fairly well. You can use regular counting indices to identify close decisions.

[privador81]

I believe the % is somewhere around 17.5% to make a final hand 20 playing by basic strategy, with of course adjustments raising and lowering that percentage based on the deck composition and game rules.

As for your "variance" on hitting index decisions or "non hit hands" I honestly couldn't tell you, and I'm unsure what you mean by "I have a promo in my casino".

Thx for response
By promo i said that, if player makes total 20 you will get some promo value. FIt is 0.2+unit
I have watched tables and 13 vs 2 ,17 vs a, 13 vs 3 wont lose much second round 14 vs 2,3 12 vs 6.5, 13 vs 4

[Exoter175]

There are free composition dependent analyzers that will tell you the EV of hitting and standing with any deck composition. It is accurate of the top but the task is better set to a simulator for the counts affect on the decision. Side counting the key cards you hope to draw would probably help the most. You decide you might want to hit 12 or 13 against your count recommendation knowing whether the rank (8 for 13 and 9 for 12) are in surplus or deficit is very important. If it doesn't cost much to go for it but there are hardly any of the rank that would give you 20 left it isn't worth going for it. If there is a large surplus of that rank even more aggressive hitting is called for. That side count info is valuable for IC and PE improvement as well. You just need to learn the adjustments.

Spitballing for a minute, but don't you believe in a situation like this, to be able to count it, would require a 3/4 column count with ace sidetrack to be even reasonably "accurate" for some of those index plays? Or like you said, would you rather focus on sidetracking pairs like 8/2 7/3 6/4 etc. with your normal count? Which would be more advantageous here? Despite the fact that the promo seems much less value than its worth to master this cognitively.

[Dog Hand]

I have tried to find odds, when player makes 20 total any number of cards using basic strategy H17
I have promo in my casino and i cant find any info on that
I assume the odds should be between 13-20% Any help?

If i do some variance hitting 14 vs 2 or 3. 17 vs how the odds change?

privador81,

If you have Green Chip access, take a look at this post I made in September of 2010:

http://www.bj21.com/greenchip/misc_b...l-total-vs-tc/

This post shows the percentage of hands where the DEALER makes a 20, as a function of the HiLo TC, for both S17 and H17 6D games with 5/6 penetration. Thus, if you adopt the dealer's strategy (hit all stiff hands), you can use these tables for your game, realizing of course that they assume that the dealer takes a hole card, checks for a BJ, and does not have one. Fortunately, the chance of a dealer BJ is ALSO given in the tables, so if the dealer takes a hole card and checks for BJ first, you can adjust the given values to account for this effect.

At best, playing the dealer strategy will result in a 20 about 25% of the rounds. Naturally, if you don't follow the dealer's H/S strategy, for example if you stand on 16 vs. 6, your actual chances of a 20 will be less. On the other hand, splitting 9's would help you get a 20, so sometimes NOT following the dealer's strategy will help you get a 20.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand