Considering Tthree's comment I can add that I also had an awful 160.000 downswing in 2 months, followed by an 80.000 recovery on the following month and a half. Unfortunately, I am not even close to the variance reduction level that Tthree has achieved with his system.Originally Posted by Tthree
Played around with the Random Walk. Doesn't permit more than 500 hours per "trip." Gave you a $100 per hour win rate and $2,000 s.d. Yearly e.v. is, of course, +$50,000. Didn't take more than a few clicks before you had a losing year of ... $36,500!
I can't begin to tell you how completely mathematically irrelevant personal statistics are. People put a great deal of stock in them, because, well, they're very important to you. But, in reality, when you click through the Random Walk, you can get a lifetime's worth of education and eye-opening in a matter of seconds.
Don
I think it's time for Halves. Haha jk, congrats again on another winning year. Although you put in a ton of hours for only 27k, you need to see it as another winning year a that you didn't end up in the red and that next year you will make high 5 figures again. Dont lose sight of the big picture. Dont we always say it's one big session so why are you complaining? Just because it's a year of play? Play 10 years then complain. I know you know this, but sometimes people need something repeated as we are all human and lose sense of the big picture. To me one year is not the big picture. When you won 115k that one year did you do a backflip off a bridge with happiness? No you didn't so don't complain when you you're on the lowside of EV. Stay grounded and know everything works out to the EV you're playing at. 115k one year and another year 27k, that's a 70k average in two years, so no reason to feel bad.I end my year before Christmas each year and take a break before the new year, so today was my final day of blackjack play for the year. I have shared my experiences and my results on both this site and Ken's site prior, for as long as I have been a member of the BJ community. Each year, I say...no more. There is no need for me to share my results in detail and this year I had planned not to. But, this was a very unusual (at least I hope it is not the norm) year as I underachieved expectation by a great deal, posting my worst results in my five years of living and playing in Vegas. My worst results since year 4 of my now 11 year career. Since I have willingly, even proudly shared my results in other years, I feel I owe it to share results of this very humbling year.
My personal solo blackjack results for the year total $27,345.That vs expectation for my amount of play of over $87,000.
That is $27,345 vs my 4 previous years of 2010 ($78,925), 2011 ($62,050), 2012 ($81,075), 2013 ($115,425).
Most years I have finished pretty close to expectation, which is in the upper 5 figure range. 2011 was off as I missed 3 months after heart surgery. 2013 was my one year where my BJ results topped 6 figures and was about 45% above expectation. I kind of figured that was due to my improving play and techniques such as tracking two tables and aggressive wong outs of negative counts. But now after this subpar year, I kind of figure 2013 was nothing more than hitting the plus side of the bell curve. And this year, try as I did (more EV than any other year), I hit the reverse, dark side of that curve.
I started off the year slow, training a friend and potential partner, which took time away from my game (it also didn't work out). By mid year, I was below 50% of expectation and then had a negative run in July that actually put me into the red, 7 months and 45,000 rounds into the year. That was a new experience and quite eye-opening. In the second half of the year each good run, where I though I might be about to really get thing going, was met with a negative run or step backwards.
And actually, one of the lessons I think I learned this year is that my style of play, playing different spreads and max bets at different games, depending on what I perceive the casino's tolerance level to be, INCREASES my volatility or variance. I live by my signature that if you play long enough, results will come in line with expectation. In the past that time frame has always fit nicely into a year. The past 2 years it hasn't. I think with my style of different spreads and top wagers, I am inviting more volatility or variance, so that time frame doesn't fit so nicely into a calendar year. I still believe in my signature, just have had to adjust the time frame some.
Now of course, all of these figures are just the blackjack portion of my AP, which should account for 80% of my results. I get roughly another 20K from my half of my partner and my machine play results. That has yet to be determined as we still have a couple thousand dollars in free play to play through in the next week, but that part of my AP income looks to be close to expectation, so that will help.
I know there are those (not necessarily of this site) who will attribute my subpar year to the downfall of blackjack, as they predict every year or just the downfall of myself, as there are a handful that seem to be routing against me. I don't think either to be the case, I just think it was the dark side of the curve. But time will tell.
Once again, you know this, I'm just repeating it for you to not forget as we all lose sight of what's really going on from time to time. By the way I wasn't joking when I said switch to halves
Hello there KJ
No problem here with the questions. I totally understand your doubts.
I've mentioned most of the points below in previous threads but I don't post regularly enough so I wouldn't blame anyone for not remembering. That also gives the impression of being relatively new.
- The figures mentioned are from BJ card counting alone.
- I do have extra 17.000 winnings from an AP opportunity during the second half of 2013 and first half of 2014, but it's value and frecuency GREATLY diminished in the last 3 months so I am lucky if I get 3.000 or so during 2015.
- No, I won't go into details over this specific AP opportunity. All I can say is that I've never seen it mentioned here.
- I don't play in the US.
- I play black, purple and above, at least for almost two years now.
- Heat is not an issue, but I still try to be careful with the hours I play and store rotation to avoid action against AP style of play.
And by the way, merry Xmas to you all!
You may have noticed a recent trip report on bj21 from hockedad, he was commenting on how terrible the state of Vegas games was. I think it's just a little harder to find games, instead of walking from one shop to the next a little more scouting is probably needed. I don't think the games have deteriorated in the past 12 months.
In this day and age making a living off counting is near impossible unless your roll is 6 figures IMO. Unless, you have some awesome positive variance in here beginning. And by making a living I mean earning at least what kj makes. No point busting your butt for 40k pa and having the wild stress and swings that bj brings.
kj, as far as my play is concerned, bj is not profitable for me, purely because of the travel expense. I am below ev currently, but it would only be mildly profitable playing at a level where I generate around $50-75 per hour. I find the travel to Vegas and California, playing, heat, driving, the challenge most enjoyable and a welcome break from the 6 day a week work grind. It would be nice to kae a net profit and if I play enough hours or see so e great variance then I will I just need to reach no. And Vegas is just awesome, baby!
Merry Christmas, Don!
Thanks for the suggestion about BJRM. That is a great program. I found it here along with very helpful info and even "video" tutorials:
http://162.243.63.87/bjriskmanager/
and it's ok to make a donation to Mr. Auston!
SiMi
He's not new KJ.
I can vouch for him, for his results and for his level of play.
Like yourself, he's the real deal and unlike those who flood this board with idiotic posts every single day, one of the few that's actually making money playing this game.
Im actually surprised you two never talked before, being that you are both full time card counters and probably have a lot in common.
KJ, I have been following your career since you started posting on bj21.com. I have the utmost respect for you.
You dedicate 2500 hours a year to work. With 75K annually in EV it only comes to $30 for an hour that is dedicated to AP. Other approaches yield more and I don't necessary mean using advanced techniques. In other words, I think you can make more even using only CC as your vehicle. You might be paying too much for your desire to play locally and keep yourself welcome.
KJ, if you don't mind me asking how to you manage to pull off so many hours solo play. Do you use both betting cover and playing cover? And or conservative spread? I can imagine your play must be way under the radar for $30 an hour. I'd like to try an approach like that at my locals which I only hit once per month per shift for an hour max spreading 25-300 using the ultimate gambit advised for green chipping in burning the tables.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Last edited by BlackHead; 12-27-2014 at 12:41 PM.
+1
Vegas has to be the worst place in the world to count cards. You are foced to under 500 max bets and play one shoe and out. If you got out there more you would see there are places you can play for 13 hours a days if you choose to do and have your ass in the same seat. Sometimes that game is worse then vegas games sometimes its better then vegas games but the most important thing is they let you log massive hours and they accept the swings of your play and dont bug when you hit a good shoe or two.
I have logged more hours or rounds than you this year at much higher statkes and maintained a partime/fulltime career on top of counting cause i have made it my goal to seek stores out like this, i would say that in the states they are definitely a rarity but they are out there even in our own country. If you want to get outside this country then more opens up to you but there are tons of 1000 plus max games you can camp for ever. I think your hatred of flying has serverly cut your income. If you rEV was 300k a year or more and you ran at 1/3 EV atleast you would still make 100k but 100k still sux balls.
everyone has different EV goals and life goals so if your happy doing what your doing keep doing it but dont expect different results. From all these threads and year end threads it seem like some sort of validation like your still doing things right. I could be wrong but i did this for moment but then i realized i dont need anyoones permission or approval to do what i like to do.
I still think card counting is a bigger money maker than most people give it credit if somoene treats it like a job and has serious work motivation. No need to cut your income off and i think you servierly over estimate how long one can play aggressively if they aren't scared to fly. You area is a gross database infested area, theres other places that are not.
I personally prefer if you stay in vegas cause it leaves the higher EV games ( i did not say game quality but i feel camping out for days turns marginal bj games into fantasic wealth builders) for the rest of the players but i just want you to know there are many ways to make money at this game counting and your thoughts about burning out are completely misguided. I feel if i played everyday for the rest of my life i would never run out of casinos to play.
Last edited by Goatlife; 12-27-2014 at 12:42 PM.
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