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Thread: Thoughts on only using basic strategy

  1. #1


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    Thoughts on only using basic strategy

    My time is running out. A couple of weeks before visiting casino and I haven't begun let alone develop proficiency in any counting. Not being prepared to count I only have basic strategy. Does anyone know what the houses and my advantage is? 8 dk, LS, DAS.

  2. #2


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    Plug in the exact rules in the calculator below to calculate the house edge. You need to know if they hit soft 17 (A-6) and if they resplit aces to get the exact number.

    http://www.blackjacktheforum.com/res...hp?do=edgepage

    Playing basic strategy is a long term loser, so minimizing your play would be your best advantage play. You might get lucky, but the odds are against you.

    Maybe consider using REKO count on this web site so you don't need deck estimation skills and true counting. Try back counting and wait until you have advantage before placing a bet.

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    Thanks for the link. I got -0.281. Does that mean out of 100 hands I'll only win 28 of them?

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    No. It means you will loose $0.28 per $100 wagered long term if you play perfect basic strategy.

    Figure long term as being something like 30,000 hands.

    Your short term results will vary greatly. I've had shoes when I didn't win a hand.

  5. #5


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    Quote Originally Posted by Zach Black View Post
    No. It means you will loose $0.28 per $100 wagered long term if you play perfect basic strategy.

    Figure long term as being something like 30,000 hands.

    Your short term results will vary greatly. I've had shoes when I didn't win a hand.
    Others disagree but my opinion is that you learn basic strategy, and even as you learn to count, you take a $100 and find some $3 BJ tables and just play. Use basic strategy and start practicing a simple count. I think just practicing counting at home without visiting casinos is a mistake. There is so much to learn about yourself in these games. As you do the initial few visits to casinos and you count, intuitively you will begin making adjustments. Say a count is negative, you might decide to hit the 12 against a 3 or 4.

    I played even as I was learning to count and learning basic strategy and I was having both winning and losing sessions but the price was worth it.

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    Stick with craps on this trip. Pass/don't pass and full odds.

    And I say this with utmost respect, but you're not ready for blackjack yet. Don't want you to make too many mistakes and get cleaned out.

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    Quote Originally Posted by hitthat16 View Post
    Stick with craps on this trip. Pass/don't pass and full odds.

    And I say this with utmost respect, but you're not ready for blackjack yet. Don't want you to make too many mistakes and get cleaned out.
    Or worse: Play a game at a disadvantage (unknowingly), end up winning a lot, think "I had an advantage" and think you're actually playing at an advantage. Keep playing in the future, without bettering your skills, end up losing, and thinking "this is just [negative] variance, I'll swing back to positive" and never get there.
    "Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]

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    Quote Originally Posted by hitthat16 View Post
    And I say this with utmost respect, but you're not ready for blackjack yet. Don't want you to make too many mistakes and get cleaned out.
    you're preaching to the choir brother! You are a very wise individual Not to mention my wimpy BR. I have learned enough to know not to even sit unless you got the skills down to being like second nature.

    I was a little rusty on my basic strategy but am feeling 85% good about it now and would expect to be 99% by the time of my trip, a couple weeks. I purchased an app for my iPhone from www.qfit.com called Blackjack Verite Drills and it has brought me back up to speed on my basic strategy very quickly. I never did learn to count or the variations to basic strategy. I'm doubtful I'll be rehearsed enough in those two areas. But who know's how much practice will I get in.

    Thanks for the curteous warning

  9. #9


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    Quote Originally Posted by hitthat16 View Post
    Stick with craps on this trip. Pass/don't pass and full odds.

    And I say this with utmost respect, but you're not ready for blackjack yet. Don't want you to make too many mistakes and get cleaned out.
    Vulturing Ultimate-X can be good. Bet 5 coins/hand. At least there, you have an edge.

    If you insist on playing blackjack, find a low limit table and play small - $3-$5, or $5-$10. Losing 4 in a row is as good a cue as any to walk, if you're not counting.
    May the cards fall in your favor.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by imapo View Post
    My time is running out. A couple of weeks before visiting casino and I haven't begun let alone develop proficiency in any counting. Not being prepared to count I only have basic strategy. Does anyone know what the houses and my advantage is? 8 dk, LS, DAS.
    I guess you have a trip planned. I would either learn a basic count and only play when you have an advantage and flat bet or not play at all. No sense wasting your BR on negative expectation, especially if it is small. The advice of betting on pas/don't with full odds is great for having the lowest negative expectation but depending on table limits it can put you BR in even bigger peril than play ing something else with smaller bets and a higher house edge. This is all risk of ruin stuff which is very important to learn if you plan on succeeding at AP play.

    From Blackjack Attack edition 3 page 112:

    Ruin = ((1-w/sd)/(1+w/sd))^(BR/sd)

    where w is hourly win rate and sd is hourly standard deviation and BR is your bankroll.

    Best advice is not to play much of anything. Limit play to where you have an advantage if you can. You can backcount tables and enter when you have an advantage or even wait for a sizable advantage flat bet and leave when your advantage gets low enough. Playing BS should be fine but knowing some positive indices will help you some. Remember you are not playing negative counts. Don't sweat it if you aren't sure of the index play, just play basic strategy. Try not to play anything that has you betting at a disadvantage. Just get a feel for the casino and how things work. You can do that as a spectator and if you see a good opportunity get in and play a little for small stakes. That should get you some great practice counting real games and keep your BR safe. You will probably be able to tell if you are ready to play if the opportunity arises. If you lose count go to another table that has a fresh shoe and count that one. You can even try to figure how players should play their hands according to the index play if you know it and if it isn't to distracting. If you have trouble remembering basic strategy bring a basic strategy card with you. Just realize you are there to learn and not so much to play. A little play at a nice edge is great but you may be making mistakes so don't overdue anything.

    Good luck. Hopefully you will do as I said and play very little unless you get some strong opportunities. Ploppies jump in and out of shoes like crazy. Just buy in for a few bets and buy in as needed for the same amount. They won't be expecting you to stay long so leaving quickly if the count tanks won't look odd. Just flat bet at an advantage on this trip to limit your risk. If all you do is stand by and practice without playing a hand you have won lots of valuable experience at no risk or cost financially.

  11. #11


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    It's so impressive the advice I've gotten from you all. Very nice to have come accross this forum!

  12. #12


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    One thing, if you really do want to play blackjack on this trip, is you are allowed to have the basic strategy card with you at the table.

    That said, don't buy it from the casino gift shop. They're often wrong. Also, make sure you are using the right one for the rules of the table.

    Lastly, follow it religiously. I can't tell you how many times I've seen someone at the table with a chart, they look at the correct play, and ignore it anyway.

  13. #13
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    If this is your VERY FIRST time in a casino envoronment, just stand around and observe a little. Attempt to recall the BS decisions of the observed hands. You'll quickly discover that the right BS play eludes you. If you really want to play, do so for the experience, at low stakes and don't make it a two hour marathon.
    BE FINANCIALLY AND EMOTIONALLY READY TO LOSE YOUR BUY-IN.
    “One man’s remorse is another man’s reminiscence.” Ogden Nash

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