Take heart, losing is wonderful...

**marriedputter** · 11-24-2014, 06:06 PM

This thread is for all of you out there in the red.

You already know that losing is good because of the element of cover (you can't win every time or you'll get 86'd for sure). Losing is also good for comps if your game allows you to safely collect them. There's nothing like free meals, hotels, shows, or whatever else you may be into to add into the EV. The real value of losing though is much more beneficial than any comp or cover.

The type of losing that I am referring to is not your redundant one session loss after three winning sessions. I am referring to the type of losing that makes you question card counting. It makes you question your abilities (sometimes a good thing). It makes you question whether or not some malevolent god is out there pulling strings and consistently causing the dealer to hit her 16 to a 21, even though the true count is +10. I'm talking about the type of losing where the count stays high through 3 decks and you just keep losing away at your max bet long after the ploppies have deserted the table. It's the type that makes the casino think that you are just futilely chasing your losses and are a degenerate gambler.

This losing is wonderful because if you are willing to test your will, it gives you a thick skin. It will change you and you will trust the math. Only when you can endure this type of freakishly crazy losing, and not freak out yourself, can you call yourself an investor.

If we use a scale of -10 to +10 to rate our emotions (-10 being miserable and +10 being ecstatic), we must diligently work to remove the negative numbers from our emotions. I used to be a -10 after a drubbing and a +10 after a big win. Now, I am a +10 after a big win and a big fat 0 after a mega loss. In other words, losing is just a shoulder shrug for me. This is now the way I approach card counting, the stock market, and my real estate holdings. Like Rocky said: "it's not about how hard you can hit, but how hard you can get hit and keep moving forward. How much you can take and keep moving forward."

If you are losing and you feel angry or depressed, keep at it. Provided that you are doing things correctly, you will be rewarded, and you can do it without fear with enough experience. The pain that you are feeling is just weakness leaving the body.

For all those like me who are currently in the red, this is for you. Good cards and may the math be with you!

**Nikky_Flash** · 11-24-2014, 06:11 PM

I nominate this post as one of the best ever...

**MJGolf** · 11-24-2014, 06:33 PM

Good post--MarriedPutter:

It does take an emotional toll over time sometimes, but handling variance is part of the game. I know how you feel being up a good amount this year but then giving more than I wanted to give back in two out of three recent losing sessions. I was a little "irked" but I didn't blow any gasket. But it made me feel like you expressed---more determined to practice more; make sure I was playing the right games and determined to continue doing what I knew should be advantageous in the long run. Support on this thread is a big plus to me. To know that others go through the same thing and have good advice to handle both the good and poor runs.

**MidwestTom** · 11-25-2014, 01:49 AM

Best post I've read since joining this forum. KUDOS

**stopgambling** · 11-25-2014, 02:02 AM

I think one should not feel much of anything if you are playing with a very low ROR ,even if you lost 200 max bets in a year stretch ,that is only 1/4 , 1/5 your bankroll . That is how i think card counting should be approach. one should not be stressed when playing this game.

**moo321** · 11-25-2014, 08:35 AM

Originally Posted by stopgambling

I think one should not feel much of anything if you are playing with a very low ROR ,even if you lost 200 max bets in a year stretch ,that is only 1/4 , 1/5 your bankroll . That is how i think card counting should be approach. one should not be stressed when playing this game.

Are you saying you play with 1000 max bets? So, someone going $25-200 on DD should have a $200,000 bankroll?

**marriedputter** · 11-25-2014, 10:06 AM

Originally Posted by stopgambling

I think one should not feel much of anything if you are playing with a very low ROR ,even if you lost 200 max bets in a year stretch ,that is only 1/4 , 1/5 your bankroll . That is how i think card counting should be approach. one should not be stressed when playing this game.

If you have a pile of money for a bankroll, then good for you. As you can plainly see however, this thread is for those who probably do not. Hence, this is why I(we) are in the red (well, I can't speak for others, but this is why for me).

In my case, I use a replenishable bankroll. This explains why it is so easy to lose money from month to month. My intention is to build it up while keeping track of my money and the casinos money. Once my bankroll consists of only the casinos money, I will put my money back and only play with the $ I won from them, probably at 1/2 Kelly. Once it goes really big, I will shift to 1/4 Kelly. I was well on my way there, and have hit an incredible streak of bad cards for several months now. I don't know how many times that the count has gone high with the dealer showing a bust card, only to turn it over and have 11. I'm sure you can deduce what she hit up to with this high count.

One of the things that I tell myself in these circumstances is that if the dealer can get such a run of good cards, then I will too. This means that my streak is coming. The big difference between me and her however is that I will come out ahead with my future blackjacks and DD/splits.

In response to your comment about stress, my position is that losing is never fun, regardless of the size of your bankroll. There is never a time that I have walked into a casino with all my max bets and walked out without them and said "damn, that was fun." But I can honestly say that I have taken all the punishment that variance can offer and I am still chugging away. I have been amazed over the years how much I have learned about life from this crazy game.

**marriedputter** · 11-25-2014, 10:21 AM

Originally Posted by moses

One of the most profound Norm saying that stuck with me is "Bad Variance" sucks. Sounds simple and very true. An example of "Variance" is getting 20 and deciding whether to insure or not because the count is right on the edge. You don't and a feel relieved for a split second when the dealer flips over a 5. Then hits another 5.

"Bad Variance" is a constant barrage of busting a 15 or 16 with a 10 in a negative count which pushes the count even further into the negative. Then seeing the dealer hit their 15 or 16 against your 19 or 20 in a positive to get just the card they need to beat you...the "miserable" meter begins to move a notch or two. I repeat to myself "Norm said there would be days like this" (in the beat of the 60's tune by The Shirelles) as 17s continue to lose to 18s; 18s to 19s; etc. But you sit through it because you know your time is coming and it may not balance but usually lets up.

But, after enduring all this. and a dealer shuffles at 50% pen because the count is a +2...That's just sick and wrong. At this point, you realize the "game" turned into an expensive blood bath and you're the one in the tub.

Most Casinos are like a football powerhouse that will only play underfunded D-II teams. C'mon you bunch of wimps let's play a real game okay?

What really sucks is getting a 16 and needing to insure. If I insure, I leave pretty quickly because I imagine the dealer and/or pitboss thinking "this person plays pretty well, why would they insure a 16?" At least with your example they may not think you are an AP.
I've never had any dealer change their pen. That would suck worse than anything. I know the dealers with the good pen and I follow them around (discretely of course).

**Rudy** · 11-25-2014, 02:09 PM

Originally Posted by marriedputter

This thread is for all of you out there in the red.

You already know that losing is good because of the element of cover (you can't win every time or you'll get 86'd for sure). Losing is also good for comps if your game allows you to safely collect them. There's nothing like free meals, hotels, shows, or whatever else you may be into to add into the EV. The real value of losing though is much more beneficial than any comp or cover.

The type of losing that I am referring to is not your redundant one session loss after three winning sessions. I am referring to the type of losing that makes you question card counting. It makes you question your abilities (sometimes a good thing). It makes you question whether or not some malevolent god is out there pulling strings and consistently causing the dealer to hit her 16 to a 21, even though the true count is +10. I'm talking about the type of losing where the count stays high through 3 decks and you just keep losing away at your max bet long after the ploppies have deserted the table. It's the type that makes the casino think that you are just futilely chasing your losses and are a degenerate gambler.

This losing is wonderful because if you are willing to test your will, it gives you a thick skin. It will change you and you will trust the math. Only when you can endure this type of freakishly crazy losing, and not freak out yourself, can you call yourself an investor.

If we use a scale of -10 to +10 to rate our emotions (-10 being miserable and +10 being ecstatic), we must diligently work to remove the negative numbers from our emotions. I used to be a -10 after a drubbing and a +10 after a big win. Now, I am a +10 after a big win and a big fat 0 after a mega loss. In other words, losing is just a shoulder shrug for me. This is now the way I approach card counting, the stock market, and my real estate holdings. Like Rocky said: "it's not about how hard you can hit, but how hard you can get hit and keep moving forward. How much you can take and keep moving forward."

If you are losing and you feel angry or depressed, keep at it. Provided that you are doing things correctly, you will be rewarded, and you can do it without fear with enough experience. The pain that you are feeling is just weakness leaving the body.

For all those like me who are currently in the red, this is for you. Good cards and may the math be with you!

Excellent post. After 7 months in the "green" field, last month was terrible, and is very frustating.

**hitthat16** · 11-25-2014, 03:18 PM

Originally Posted by marriedputter

What really sucks is getting a 16 and needing to insure.

I always say something like "I'm just hoping that you have it so I don't have to lose money on this crap hand".

Of course it's nonsense, but spewing off ploppy logic is +EV.

**stopgambling** · 11-25-2014, 03:19 PM

i m not saying 1 have 1000 max bets or one needs a 1000 max bets .Without a healthy bank and a chance to get to the "long run" ,our hero is gonna have a very tough time emotionally n financially. It certainly is not fun when one's losing .I don't look at it per round basis . i look at it at per session base 20-30 max bets /session. i have only played a 1000 hrs or so but have lost over 30-60 max bets in 4-8 hrs heads up of course for at least 5 times . IT WAS NOT FUN . i won over 120 max bets within 400 hours or so only to lose most back in another 500 hrs stretch . Emotionally it is very frustrating, so with a very healthy bankroll , i would not be stress most of the time. 200 max bets is what i operate with and clearly it is not enough to endure emotional stress ,maybe even from ror. As JG said card counting is a super grind at best and i totally agree with it.If i have a few people playing together and quite a few good games then it would be different. Please excuse my grammar and use of the language.

**stopgambling** · 11-25-2014, 03:23 PM

Also as in insurance bad hands with big bets out almost never got the dealer to think i was a ploppy. More than a few occasion i had them pointing me out as counting ,mostly indirect comments. if i was playing very short session then ... it maybe different.

**Blitzkrieg** · 11-25-2014, 09:53 PM

How can you say that losing is wonderful? I hate losing at any game regardless if the game is BJ or not. I feel that I should win every time I play even though I know it may not happen. If a player has thoughts of questioning their own ability in BJ after a big loss or through extended ass kickings on the felt... then they should have never taken a seat at the table and their probably not as good as they think they are.