Rounds/hands advantage player

[Picasso]

Question for counters: when the tide turns in favor of the player, for how many hands/rounds on average does this last? I suppose if you are playing one on one with the dealer this may last longer, or does it?

Advantage player: how many hands on average will this last one on one?
Advantage player: how many rounds on average will this last with a full table?

Forgive me, but I’m not a counter, so my question may be ill asked.

[hitthat16]

How many decks in the game?

[Picasso]

Thanks for your reply: 6 decks but if you have answers for 4 or 8 decks, feel free

[moo321]

I think Blackjack Attack has info on TC frequencies in the sims section. This should (indirectly) give you the answer, if you add up the frequencies of all the positive counts.

[Nyne]

The true count theorem says, essentially, that whatever the TC is now, the average TC will tend to remain the same over the remainder of the shoe. In other words, there is no tendency for the TC to return to zero. Sometimes it rises, sometimes it falls, of course, so the average length of play once it hits any particular threshold is not equal to the remainder of the shoe, but it's probably not a lot less either. I think what you are asking is different than what moo mentioned about true count frequencies because the TC distribution from any given time to the end of the shoe is correlated to the current count, and will be different from the overall distribution.

Short answer: the count can tank or skyrocket, but the general tendency is to stay relatively the same, so once you get to +3 or so, you are likely to have an advantage for several rounds or more.

[21forme]

The true count theorem says, essentially, that whatever the TC is now, the average TC will tend to remain the same over the remainder of the shoe.

I've never understood this. How can the TC not return to zero at the end of the shoe?

[Norm]

There is no TC at the end of a shoe. You can't divide by zero.

[Canceler]

So now he just needs to think about what happens to the TC when there is only one card left, and decks remaining = 1/52?

[RS]

TC is a ratio. The RC falls while cards remaining decreases.

RC = 12, decks remaining = 3. There are 4 extra high cards per deck. And 2 per half deck.

1/2 deck later: RC is 10, decks remaining is 2.5, TC is still 4.

1/2 deck later: RC 8, decks rem 2, TC 4

1 deck later. RC is 4, 1 deck rem, 4 TC.

[bigplayer]

The Running count tends to move towards zero, not the True Count. Cards are being depleted from the shoe as fast as the Running Count moves back to zero thus the True Count tends to stay the same. As an example, take a fresh shoe and take out all of the 5's and replaced them with 8's. You'd have a +4 True Count off the top of the shoe. Now imagine you just start betting the shoe and ignore counting any of the cards that come out. Knowing nothing else halfway through the shoe if you had to make an estimate as to the True Count at that point what would it be? It would still be +4. You'd still have a +24 running count and you'd still have 6 decks unseen. That is what the True Count Theorem refers to. It does not mean the TC for a typical shoe has to stay the same, only that it tends to stay the same (or revolve up and down around that point). This is why when a shoe tanks you should assume that it will not rebound because most of the time it won't, sometimes it will but it won't rebound often enough or intensely enough to make it worthwhile so this is why you should look for greener pastures.

[Three]

I've never understood this. How can the TC not return to zero at the end of the shoe?

If the shoe was dealt to the absurdity of 1 card left the TC for hILO would either be +52, 0 or -52 depending on the last card. If the TC is positive with 13 cards left (+4, +8, +12 ...)it will most likely end at +52. Of course with no info on the neutral cards there might be 1 low cards and 2 high card left and 8 neutral cards for a TC of +4 with 13 cards left.

If the TC is +4 you expect 1 more low card to be taken out than high cards for each 13 cards dealt. if that happens the numerator (RC) drops by 1 but the denominator drops by 1/4 deck. This maintains a perfect balance and a TC staying at +4.The bigger the slug considered the more likely it will be at the expected amounts.