New player - some general questions

[Fermat]

Hi there.

Per the title, I'm a new to Blackjack.

I understand the rules and basic strategy, but have never played the game on any serious level. I am familiar with virtually all the casino games of chance and thoroughly understand the odds for each game and the precise house advantage that exists in each scenario. Moreover, I'm very comfortable with both risk and the concept of volatility (variance) and can tolerate extreme swings in either direction.

In the past, I've never had the time nor inclination to play Blackjack on any serious level. I'm not looking to become a Pro or make my living from playing, but just to "even the odds" when I do spend time at Casinos, which I do relatively often. In other words, I'd just like to become proficient enough to swing the odds slightly in my favor when I begin to play more consistently.

Some general questions:

1. Recently, in a major Vegas casino, I decided to pay with about $500 on flat betting greens ($25) until I go broke. I played near perfect (made a few mistakes, since I've never played the game seriously) basic strategy, but was only able to last about 2.5 hours. Is it unusual to lose $500 in such a short time where the House advantage is purportedly only about 30 bps? By the way, the game was SS17, DAS, SA, Surrender, 6 decks.

2. I can easily play $50 - $100 minimum hands (which I noticed is the min bet for the good rules), what sort of bankroll would be required?

3. Finally, aside from reading the usual books (which I've done), would appreciate any practical advice on how to begin the process of becoming better at the game.

Thanks! Any insights would be greatly appreciated.

[ZenMaster_Flash]

Fermat,

Your little theorem aside ...

"I decided to pay with about $500 on flat betting greens ($25) until I go broke. I played near perfect (made a few mistakes, since I've never played the game seriously) basic strategy, but was only able to last about 2.5 hours. Is this unusual to lose $500 in such a short time where the House advantage is purportedly only about 30 bps? By the way, the game was HS17, DAS, SA, Surrender, 6 decks."

In 2.5 hrs you played between 150 and 300 hands.
Losing a mere 20 units in a flash is completely
"par for the course." $500 in a $25 game can be lost
in one shoe quite easily. That is NOT hyperbole. Not at all.

Blackjack is a game of massive volatility.

I can easily play $50 - $100 minimum hands (which I noticed is the min bet for the good rules), what sort of bankroll would be required?

That depends on table conditions. At $100 minimums that ranges between 80K and 120K

You will soon discover that playing at high minimums will result in your being surveilled

with great vigilance.

As an amateur you'll very quickly face barrings and trespasses.

I caution you -- study and practice for, at minimum, a few months before proceeding.

[Fermat]

@ZenMaster_Flash

Thanks for your reply. I''m not good at forum quotes, so I'll post my replies manually.

1. Had no idea losing a "mere" 20 units was a common occurrence in a game with such a low house advantage when played properly with basic strategy.

2. I'm not a very good player and only familiar with basic strategy. The casinos where I play (Vegas) usually have high limits on all the Blackjack tables. Even as a novice, I'll be surveilled simply by playing at the higher minimum 2 deck cards?

As I've said, I just want to play with slightly better odds. And, after my initial foray into the game, I couldn't agree more with you on the necessity to practice and study considerably more before I return to the tables. At some point, I must have lost about 15 out of 20 bets. I just assumed, "ok, this must be one of those aberrant bad streaks."

Any suggestions on to minimize the risk of being "barred?"

[Stealth]

Hi there.

Per the title, I'm a new to Blackjack.

I understand the rules and basic strategy, but have never played the game on any serious level. I am familiar with virtually all the casino games of chance and thoroughly understand the odds for each game and the precise house advantage that exists in each scenario. Moreover, I'm very comfortable with both risk and the concept of volatility (variance) and can tolerate extreme swings in either direction.

In the past, I've never had the time nor inclination to play Blackjack on any serious level. I'm not looking to become a Pro or make my living from playing, but just to "even the odds" when I do spend time at Casinos, which I do relatively often. In other words, I'd just like to become proficient enough to swing the odds slightly in my favor when I begin to play more consistently.

Some general questions:

1. Recently, in a major Vegas casino, I decided to pay with about $500 on flat betting greens ($25) until I go broke. I played near perfect (made a few mistakes, since I've never played the game seriously) basic strategy, but was only able to last about 2.5 hours. Is it unusual to lose $500 in such a short time where the House advantage is purportedly only about 30 bps? By the way, the game was SS17, DAS, SA, Surrender, 6 decks.

In rough numbers, you had a 95% of the result being between -1000 to 980. You had a 67% of the result being between -500 to 480.

2. I can easily play $50 - $100 minimum hands (which I noticed is the min bet for the good rules), what sort of bankroll would be required?

To beat the game, you must be counting and have a designed bet structure that is leveraging your advantage as it varies. Generally speaking, think in terms of 20K to 40K to begin to play at those levels. Would need to design a protocol to fit my risk tolerance before undertaking such a venture.

3. Finally, aside from reading the usual books (which I've done), would appreciate any practical advice on how to begin the process of becoming better at the game.

LEARN PERFECT BASIC STRATEGY
LEARN A COUNT SYSTEM AND MAKE ITS USE SECOND NATURE - Hilo and true count conversion are widely used and effective
Learn deviations from basic strategy based on the count (Illustrious 18 and Fab 4 are the bedrock one to start with)
Practice until you can do this flawlessly in the casino at low stakes.
Research and understand the range of results possible measured by risk of ruin and kelly optimal betting. Design your play.
Understand the value of different games, penetrations, rules ,etc to assist in game selection.

It is a marathon not a short race. The variance is brutal and exhilarating.


Here is wishing you good variance!


Thanks! Any insights would be greatly appreciated.

Stealth

[ZenMaster_Flash]

" ... aberrant bad streaks."

Aberrant bad streaks are not aberrant, but they appear that way to you.

Your R.O.R. ["Risk of Ruin"] the way you played was EXTREMELY

high in the short haul, but 100% in an extended time-frame.

You'll not be barred too quickly playing shoe games with a "polite"

bet spread (or ramp) e.g. 8-1 and that will keep you playing as

long as you do not play for too long in any one place. As we all

know ... "Counting Cards is easy. Winning the money is difficult."

[Fermat]

"In rough numbers, you had a 95% of the result being between -1000 to 980. You had a 67% of the result being between -500 to 480."

This is helpful.

On the bright side, I see it could have been worse! In actuality, the swings were likely to have been greater than I had experienced. I did notice a period during my play where I won considerably more than I had lost (could have been coincidence or an actual high count), and I would have been much better off had I increased the bets during this stretch.

Something interesting that I've noticed. At my table, every single player had perfect basic strategy and knew exactly what to do in virtually every scenario. if anything, even after reading and some study, I was the only person who made some mistakes and didn't have conviction to double when I should, such as S17 on dealer's 5 or 6.

Thanks for the suggestions!

[Zach Black]

3. Finally, aside from reading the usual books (which I've done), would appreciate any practical advice on how to begin the process of becoming better at the game.

1)You should purchase the software CVBJ and CVCX. https://www.qfit.com/orders.htm

2) Practice at home daily for 6 months with CVBJ. This is much cheaper than Casino practice and you will get a feel for the variance without the pain.

3) With the CVCX you can simulate the bet ramp and bankroll required for the games you will play. Do a little scouting and you will find in Vegas decent lower stakes games can be found. You can plug these rules and penetration into the simulator and come up with a bankroll requirement.

4) Save until you bankroll gives you decent shot at becoming an advantage player. Building a bankroll in a casino is a long shot. Some have done it, many more have failed. You likely need 100 to 200 max bets to give you a Risk of Ruin that is acceptable.

[DSchles]

The house edge for the game you played was 0.33%. If you played 100 hands per hour, for 2.5 hours, you played 250 hands. At $25 per hand, you bet a total of $6,250 and your expectation was to lose $20.63. Let's call it $21.

The s.d. for a blackjack hand, using your rules, is 1.15 units. So, that's 1.15 x $25 = $28.75 per hand. As s.d. is a square root function, the total s.d. was sqrt(250) x $28.75 = 15.81 x $28.75 = $454.58. Let's call it $455.

So, you were supposed to lose $21, but you lost $500, which is $500 - $21 = $479 more than what was expected. Expressed as a z-statistic (number of s.d.s) that is 479/455 = 1.05 s.d.s, which occurs with probability 14.7%, or once in every 6.8 attempts. Clear?

Bottom line: A bit of bad luck, but surely something that happens all the time.

Don

[Fermat]

The s.d. for a blackjack hand, using your rules, is 1.15 units. So, that's 1.15 x $25 = $28.75 per hand. As s.d. is a square root function, the total s.d. was sqrt(250) x $28.75 = 15.81 x $28.75 = $454.58. Let's call it $455.

So, you were supposed to lose $21, but you lost $500, which is $500 - $21 = $479 more than what was expected. Expressed as a z-statistic (number of s.d.s) that is 479/455 = 1.05 s.d.s, which occurs with probability 14.7%, or once in every 6.8 attempts. Clear?

Bottom line: A bit of bad luck, but surely something that happens all the time.

Don

Thanks for the precise calculations. This is very helpful!

While I didn't calculate the odds to this precision, I knew (or sensed) it would have been "unlucky" to lose everything in such a short time. My goal this time wasn't even to win, but just get acclimated to playing with basic strategy that I've tried memorize. I was hoping to pay for at least 5 hours before losing the initial amount, but was quite surprised it only lasted 2.5 hours.

14.7% is unlucky, but certainly something that happens all the time.

[DSchles]

The problem with such a small sample is that, as your first effort, you just have no reference point -- nothing to compare it to. Don't know if you ever had such a hand, but when DAS is permitted, and you split and get to double both hands, you have $100 on the felt. Losing everything, instead of winning all, is a "swing" of $200 on the one hand and, in some ways, "defines" the outcome for that particular session.

So, clearly, in such a small sample, the result is virtually all luck.

Don

[Fermat]

The problem with such a small sample is that, as your first effort, you just have no reference point -- nothing to compare it to. Don't know if you ever had such a hand, but when DAS is permitted, and you split and get to double both hands, you have $100 on the felt. Losing everything, instead of winning all, is a "swing" of $200 on the one hand and, in some ways, "defines" the outcome for that particular session.

I did have one had where I split a few times ultimately leading to 4 hands. I tried to play it by the book (though, it still feels unnatural hitting a S18 with a dealer high card) and doubled accordingly. The dealer had a 15 and hit a 6! So, as you've saliently observed, there goes $150 on one hand! Also, there were tons of times I was hit with an Ace on doubling 11s!

Worst feeling! Great, I've got 12 and can't hit!

[ZenMaster_Flash]

I did have one had where I split a few times ultimately leading to 4 hands. I tried to play it by the book (though, it still feels unnatural hitting a S18 with a dealer high card) and doubled accordingly. The dealer had a 15 and hit a 6! So, as you've saliently observed, there goes $150 on one hand! Also, there were tons of times I was hit with an Ace on doubling 11s! Worst feeling! I've got 12 and can't hit!

You spoke about "hitting Soft 18 vs. a high card."

In the next sentence you had "doubled accordingly."

That needs an explanation. Note that you would have

had less doubled 11's that become 12's had you been

using a strong count that Side-Counts the Aces.

[Fermat]

You spoke about "hitting Soft 18 vs. a high card."

In the next sentence you had "doubled accordingly."

I meant that I found it unnatural hitting on S18s and doubled when I should as stipulated by basic strategy. I didn't mean I doubled while hitting on S18s.