Need an inspirational speech

[SiMi]

Hi, ChuckD!

I put your game in CVCX and got an EV of 1.7% and an N0 right at 10,000 rounds. Is that what you get?
You say you've played 100 hours. At 80-100 RPH, I'm guessing you are getting close to 10,000 rounds and thus nearing N0.
If you played 10,000 rounds with an EV of 1.7% and an average bet of about $29 (given your aggressive ramp), your total EV would be:

$29 avg bet per round x 10,000 rounds x .017 EV = $4,930.

So, your expectation would be to be AHEAD about $5,000 at N0. And, at N0, you have an 84% chance of NOT being in the hole. Despite this, you say you are $5,000 down which is almost exactly 1 standard deviation.
At N0, you can be 1 standard deviation behind EV and still not be in the hole. Here, however, you are probably close to N0 and you are 2 standard deviations behind EV. The odds of that are small.
You have a standard deviation of $500 per hour so the $1,500 busts seem high.
It's possible I'm missing something or it's just really bad variance but the odds seem against you being behind at this point.
I'm sure that's why you're writing...
You say your counting is perfect and your betting is good so that rules out mistakes at the table, I guess.
If I were facing this, I'd spend even more time on CVCX and CVBJ to be sure everything is the way I think it is and that I'm playing the game I think I am and playing it correctly. If it all checks out, I'd have to conclude it's just bad variance and I'd soldier on.
These games seem well worth playing and I'm curious about the intriguing option to "add a hand." How does that work and how do you sim it?
Also, I would change my bet ramp as others have said.

Best of luck!
SiMi

[ChuckD]

Tthree, we think alike. They have a dealer there that only deals about 40 hands/hr and also cuts 50-60%. I just get up and take a 30 minute break. This isn't a bigger casino, there is only 1 table. They have six deck but the only thing they give you is RSA, so the double deck is much better. I have seen them only cut off a half deck out of six though, which I find impressive. But.. You mentioned separating the aces and 2s for PE and I've already considered doing this very thing. But to the forum I'm a total newb, so someone please tell me what NO stands for(I assume it is factored off standard deviation from the way it's described.)

I may add that I do play long sessions. The host there will give me a room anytime and they send me a coupon each week so I go stay the night and usually play 8hrs/day. Most of the floor are huge football fans and we are constantly chatting it up. It's really a good time, they always try to needle me to raise my bet and rout for me. Quite the opposite of the feel I get in Vegas when I've played there. I have mostly stuck with poker in Vegas.

[ChuckD]

Thanks Simi. Unfortunately, I'm seeing more like 60 hand/hr and my results have been this:
-940
-960
+1000
+720
+50
+1175
-3900
+250
-1000
+755
-2555
+740
Total result=4530

I will admit that during the monster loss I pressed my bet in counts over 5 to 250(max bet). Other than that I haven't done that. My rational at the time was... Sure, it may cost me but I sure am squeezing more EV out of it. So, it was I suppose a bit of a learning mistake that could've paid off, but clearly didn't.

[ChuckD]

Also, sorry to spam replies rather than put everything in one. I have been playing at the same place until the last session I posted, which is +740. The first has the rules that I described first and does not allow mid-shoe entry. You can play 2 hands at double the minimum bet, but once you drop a hand you can't get it back. The second game, I wish I knew about sooner. They have a spread of $10-$500 H17 DAS DA2 LS 60-75%pen. Never saw one cut under 60%. They allow midshoe entry, so I can add a hand whenever. So.. Here's how I played after tinkering with the sims. I bet $10 on one spot to begin and ramp to 20x2@tc2 30x2@tc3 40x2@tc5. According to the sim@60hnds/per I'm still making 20/hr(which I consider worthwhile) but what amazed me was the huge drop in standard deviation from the other game I was playing.

[SiMi]

Howdy, again, ChuckD!

N0 is pronounced "N-Zero" and it is the number of rounds (N) you must play at a given +EV (Expected Value) BJ game with a given strategy and bet ramp so that your total EV equals 1 Standard Deviation. Because Blackjack is considered to be a random game, most of us believe the results over an infinite number of trials will produce the so-called Normal Curve (or "bell-shaped curve") from Statistics. The bell-shaped curve has the majority of the results crammed near the EV point at the middle of the curve (the tall part of the curve) and fewer and fewer results as you move away from the middle toward the 'tails' of the curve.

One of the cool things about the Normal Curve is that you can apply the SD to it and determine the odds of a result obtaining. You (or a computer program such as CVCX!) can calculate your SD in a given game of BJ with a given strategy (HiLo Sweet 16 and Fab 4, or whatever you're doing) and a given Bet Ramp, Rules, Pen., etc. If you visualize the Normal Curve for your game and draw a vertical line at 1 Standard Deviation on either side of your EV, you will have enclosed an area that equals about 68% of ALL the possible outcomes for this game. In other words, about 1/2 of 68% (or 34%) of the possible outcomes are contained in the area between your EV and -1 SD and another 34% of the possible outcomes are contained in the area between your EV and +1 SD.

If you draw another set of vertical lines at +2 SD and -2 SD from the EV, you will have contained 95% of all the possible outcomes between those lines. At +/- 3 SD from EV, you have covered 99.7% of all the possible outcomes. This is sometimes called the "68/95/99.7 Rule."

So, if we do a VERY clever calculation that was developed by Brett Harris to find the number of rounds you must play at this game to have a total EV that equals 1 SD, then we know that, at that number of rounds, you can be as much as 1 SD BEHIND expectation and still NOT be in the hole. This number of rounds is called N0. And, because of the 68/95/99.7% rule, we know that, at that point, you have an 84% chance of NOT being behind at that point because, if you add up the areas under the normal curve from zero all the way to the right out to +3 SD, you would add: 34% for the -1 SD; and 34% for the +1 SD; and 13.5% for the part between +1 SD and +2 SD; and 2.5% for the part between +2 and +3 SD. 34 + 34 + 13.5 + 2.5 = 84.

Similarly, if you add up the areas under the normal curve that lie below zero, you would add: 13.5% for the part between -1 SD and -2 SD; and 2.5% for the part between -2 SD and -3 SD. 13.5 + 2.5 = 16. So, you have only a 16% chance of being in the hole at N0.

That's why I said that the odds of you being 2 SD behind at N0 are very small. Unless I'm making a math error, at N0, you have only a 2.5% chance of being behind 2 SD or more at N0. You have about a 97.5% chance of doing better than that!

Looking at your results, I'm guessing that part of the "problem" might be that your SD is much bigger than I calculated with CVCX because you are "pressing your bets." This increases your Risk of Ruin and your SD so you might get some hellacious swings that are messing with your head!

This means you are not following the Bet Ramp you described. If you don't follow the Bet Ramp, then the N0 calculations don't work, of course. To me, it's important to have a plan and stick to it so I know what to expect. If you go off the plan, you really have no idea what to expect over the Long Run and, even though you're playing with an advantage, the psychological toll can be too great as the swings from large SD and large RoR get you down. To me, understanding N0 is the KEY to having the discipline to stick to the plan!

I hope this helps and that I didn't screw up the math too bad!
SiMi

[ChuckD]

Thanks for the explanation. Definitely agree with you and have stopped bet pressing. Getting desperate to reclaim the lost bankroll is a hazardous way to play. With an infant bankroll it definitely seems that lower variation trumps EV. As long as I can clear 20/hr EV I am happy. As far as lower values, I would just as soon work and deposit to my bankroll. Blackjack is fun at times, but to me it isn't worth <$20. My plan is to use Kelly betting once I get to $3000(which is where the second game I described yields a 13%~ ROR.

[DSchles]

Really nice post. Very well written and very accurate. The precise value you want for 2 s.d.s is 97.72%.

Good job!

Don

[SiMi]

Hi, Don

Thanks!

SiMi

[bigplayer]

Card Counting = Thin Edges If the swings make you uncomfortable, lower your Risk of Ruin by betting lower amounts. Swings, sometimes some very uncomfortable ones, are part of the game.

[Dieter]

Thanks Simi. Unfortunately, I'm seeing more like 60 hand/hr and my results have been this:

Don't overbet your bankroll. Find a table where you can play alone and get more hands per hour.

[ZenKinG]

So let me get this straight, you have 10 years of exprience researching and playing as a counter and you're amazed at what's happening with your results after 100 hours? LOL, either you're lying straight off the bat to have some sort of credibility so we answer your thread without attacking you, or you've spent the last 10 years blindfolded.

Please go buy CV blackjack, not just CVCX and test your skills there, log as many hands as you can and see if you're playing a winning game and if you're as accurate as you think you are. Maybe you will be amazed that you aren't as good as you think. That and also always make sure you're playing great games, shoe games can be just as good as pitch games depending on the pen and rules which is easy to find if you're a well seasoned scouter.

Also listen precisely to everything Tthree, bigplayer, KJ, Flash, and Moo tell you as they are extremely knowledgable and have a ton of real world experience. (no sarcasm intended)

[Nikky_Flash]

KJ knows his limitations and that is the most important part of success in this endeavor. Too many won't admit their limitations and hurt themselves trying to do too much when they aren't skilled enough yet. There is nothing wrong with finding your comfort zone and sticking with it especially when you are enjoying success.

good advice / marked as "helpful"

[ChuckD]

I'm just nice. I like hilo. It's easy and comfortable. I wasn't trying to suggest that I've been at a desk analyzing blackjack for 10 years. I'm new but been aware of "how" to count for that long. Maybe mistakes are made *shrug* it's not hard to keep the count. I work harder memorizing cards played at hearts. Mistakes made are over betting the bankroll, but it's restorable. The real issue is being new and down right off the bat. Made me question the legitimacy of the programs and literature that has guided me. So, quit hating fellas. If you don't like what I'm saying quit wasting your life reading it. If you want to offer real help, then thank you.