Statistics Knowledge Necessary?

[ThePunisher000]

I understand some basics of statistics, like standard deviation and variance, but beyond that I am usually lost. I recently purchased BJA3 and I am learning a lot, especially about the practical aspects of implementing a chosen counting system; however, I do not fully understand a lot of the underlying mathematics involved. It has been about five years since I took a statistics course in undergraduate, and currently, in law school, there is a complete absence of math in my studies.

I am starting with a very small bankroll of $10k, using REKO-F 8D. Do I need to learn more about the math to be effective and decrease my chances of going broke? (To be clear, I am capable of counting quickly and doing simple division in my head, so the actual counting is not a problem.) I want to purchase CVData, but I want to be assured that I will be able to appreciate all of its capabilities. Would it be beneficial and/or necessary for me to "refresh" my statistics knowledge to increase my chances of success? Do I need to understand the "why" to be effective?

I apologize in advance for my somewhat disorganized post and jumbled questions.

[Coyote]

You don't necessarily need to know all the statistics and probability to play the game. However it will make you appreciate the game more.

[ThePunisher000]

Thanks, Coyote.

That is what I was initially thinking. I realize my original post was confusing. I wanted to make sure that running simulations, with something like CVCX, is not too difficult if you aren't the best with statistics. As usual, I should have looked around the site first; I see that Norm provides a demo of CVCX, which seems to provide all that a recreational player would need (as far as calculations) to bet ramps, bankroll requirements, etc.

[sagefr0g]

fluctuation can be a devastatingly brutal heartbreaking experience, or on the other hand it can be a joyful uplifting experience.
with respect to our goal of making money both ends of the spectrum are really illusion too where expected value over the long term is the really meaningful thing.
so your intellectual understanding of expected value, standard deviation and variance and just plain old experience at the games can help you tame the emotional upheaval that you will experience in the short run on a daily basis.
also an understanding of advantage,edit: (frequencies), expected value, standard deviation and variance can help you as you discover new stuff, not to mention the ability to deal with risk.
so Coyote is correct, you can do this stuff with little math ability, but it will clearly be a positive thing for one to be a numbers sort of guy or gal, employing probability, averages, percentages, algebra and just plain ole arithmetic.
it'll pay to understand the concept of advantage, which isn't all a completely mathematically understood thing, since it's got to do with the nature of the physical world and our understanding of that is incomplete.
eventually if you stick with this stuff, you may have the opportunity to meet some people who really know what they are doing, that will be a real boost to your abilities and understanding that will be fairly astronomical. this and other forums is just such an example, as are meetings such as the bj bash's of the past.
hey wouldn't just having a knack for advantage be a good thing for a guy practicing law, even?

[blackjack avenger]

A little knowledge is a dangerous thing

I'm proof no knowledge is necessary

Though any knowledge can't hurt

An important thing to understand is to not overbet
Be quick to cut bets on bank depletion
Be slow to increase bets on bank growth
This can help one to keep playing

[ThePunisher000]

Thanks, Sage. Until you mentioned it, I did not consider the important and practical benefit from understanding the statistics, specifically with regards to expected value and standard deviation. After reading through many sections of BJA3 (multiple times), I am beginning to appreciate the fact that many of my trip results, good or bad, are not representative of my long term expectation.

I used to be an avid online boxing bettor. (I know I am probably the only one that still watches boxing.) Anyway, I felt a point of diminishing returns, in terms of happiness, when I won a boxing wager; BUT, no matter how many times I placed a losing wager, it never got easier to handle. On the other hand, since beginning my journey into AP, I have come to respect the math, i.e., loses don't upset me (as much as with boxing), because I know that so long as I am placing my large wagers at the right time, I stand to increase my BR given enough trials. I did not have that sense of comfort in boxing, where each fight was independent of the next, and there nothing [as sure as the probabilities of BJ] to ease the pain of losing $1,800 in one night.

I am in this for the long run, so I look forward to having the opportunity to meet some experienced AP's in the future (I have had the chance to chat with a few online, which is I know is not the same.) When boxing, I always believed that competing against superior fighters was crucial to improving your own skill, and I feel that the same can be said for many things, including AP. I am glad I found this site, because I am always learning something new from you guys.

Thanks BJ Avenger. I will heed that advice. Thankfully, I have access to $5 and $10 minimum 8D games, so I will be able to bet as little as possible during negative and neutral counts. I say 'will' because, up until this point, I have been playing recreationally and spending my winnings (I do log my wins, losses, hours); of course, I will not continue this practice next month when I actually set aside $10k.

[moo321]

I'd recommend a stats 101 class at community college. If you can understand BJA3 you'll get an A, and it's useful in finance as well.