Optimal exit point FELT count

[Koz84]

Hi there, I've got a question about an optimal exit count for a BP using the FELT count.

They would enter at TC+3, and ramp up accordingly.

[Bodarc]

It depends on the # of decks, cut and the rules. For example 6D DAS H17 4.5/6 cut Win/Loss at TC3 FELT using I18 is .36% 2D H17 DAS 1.5/ cut Win/Loss is .64%. I do not have sim for S17 surrender etc but it will change.

You need to sim the game you are going to be playing and then look at the advantages and decide where you want to enter and leave.

[muckz]

He's probably looking for the proven ODP such as the ones in the Wonging chapter of Don's book. I don't remember seeing how they got the numbers, something about grosjeans own simulator I think. Messing around on CV would get you pretty close.

[Koz84]

6 deck, S17, D9-11, DAS, BJ 3:2, nRSA, SPL3, 4.5/6 pen.

[AnzaExo]

99% of true counts are too brash and crude to actually give you the correct information to make an optimal departure point. it's in the range for -1 to -2 TC hi-lo for 1-5 decks I believe, then the departure point actually gives the signal at progressively higher counts on the final deck. there's probably a way to ball-park convert the hi-lo odp to felt, but i'm not familiar with felt.

keep in mind as well that the -1 to -2 TC range assumes a very short period of time between finding new tables (and then you have to be lucky in finding a table with a brand new shoe), so it's not a clear cut procedure at all.

[Bodarc]

Hi-Lo Optimum Decks Depart Win/Loss % Played TC HI-LO FELT 1 -1 -0.68 -0.55 2 -1.5 -0.93 -0.84

I thought you would have an answer by now. I will tell you what I think and you can take it for what it is worth. On page 362 of Blackjack Attack, Don has the departure figures for 6D,4.5-6 game with 1-12 spread S17, LS. He does not give amounts for non surrender. With 1 deck played optimum departure TC for HI-Lo is -1 which yields a win/loss percent of -.068. I ran a sim with FELT using your rules and one using HI-Lo using the same rules. At -1 TC FELT, the win/loss percent is -.55. This is as close as I could get but it appears the optimum departure TC using FELT is also -1.

As you can see with 2 decks played, HI-Lo percent is -.93 and FELT is -.84. This holds approx true until the decks played reaches 4.5 at which point the departure point rises drastically. Since your are shuffling at 4.5, you will not be affected by this.

Now, this discussion is about wonging and not specifically about BP. I would think that if the BP got a signal that he had a good count at another table, he would leave as soon as his current count dropped. If he did not receive a signal, then this should apply since it takes into account the time it would require him to locate another table.

Anyway, that is how I see it but I don't claim to be smarter than the average bear. Hope it helps.

Thanks murkz!

[Koz84]

Thank you very much for your assistance! It's greatly appreciated.

[Three]

BJA3 chapter 13 gives an in depth study of this for HILO. I think you all are missing the boat by worrying about win/loss. It is about whether or not it is worth allowing the count time to recover or whether you have more EV moving on to a fresh shoe or to find a fresh shoe. That is about how quick the count can recover.

HILO balances 5 cards against 5 cards all plus or minus 1. Felt balances 5 cards all -2 against 6 cards, 4 counted +2 and 2 counted +1. The average low card counts as +10/6 = +1.67.

I would think multiplying the HILO optimal departure points in BJA3 by 1.7 would be a very close approximation.

[DSchles]

"I would think multiplying the HILO optimal departure points in BJA3 by 1.7 would be a very close approximation."

Actually, the "proper" way to convert an index or true count from one system to another is to form the ratio of the square root of the sum of the squared values of each tag. Hi-Lo sums to 10. FELT (RPC) sums to 38. 38/10 = 3.8. Sqrt(3.8) = 1.95.

Don

[Three]

Thanks Don. I considered sum of the squares but wasn't sure which to use so I went the easy route. I didn't look it up or use the more difficult calculation. I figured if I was wrong but on the right track someone would correct me and the OP would have his answer.

You are saying the sum of the squares gives the right conversion and not that the sum of the squares would be right if my logic was sound, right? I just want the OP to get the answer he is looking for. So multiplying the ODP's from your book for HILO by 1.95 will give the FELT ODP's? Or at least a very good approximation of the same?

[Bodarc]

Thanks for the explanation Don. That makes sense because all FELT indices are usually double the Hi-Lo index. I always thought rounding was the effect since if you have 7 in FELT, do you have 3 or 4 in Hi-Lo and 1.95 is approximately double.

Therefore to convert a FELT index to a Hi-LO index 10/38=.263158 and sqrt of .263158 =.512989

Felt index is 10 so Hi-Lo index is 10 X .512989 = 5.12989
Hi-Lo index is 5.12989 so Felt index is 1.949359 x 5.12989 = 9.9999977 or 10

Three, thanks for getting the ball rolling!

[Bodarc]

	FELT		HI-Lo
		Tag		Tag
Card	Tag	Squared	Tag	Squared
2	1	1	1	1
3	2	4	1	1
4	2	4	1	1
5	2	4	1	1
6	2	4	1	1
7	1	1	0	0
8	0	0	0	0
9	0	0	0	0
10	-2	4	-1	1
J	-2	4	-1	1
Q	-2	4	-1	1
K	-2	4	-1	1
A	-2	4	-1	1
Sum of Squares		38		10
Ratio		38	/	10	=	3.8
Square Root of 3.8						1.949359
Ratio		10	/	38	=	0.263158
Square Root of .263158						0.512989

[Bodarc]

Thought that might be useful to some of the more math challenged like me.