Would you play this??

[dalmatian]

Due to restrictions on playing without a players card, I am limited to this:

1 spot with spread of 1x100-1x1000$

S17 5/6 game (no surr, DAS, RSA)

However, they have a lot of tables and I can optimally depart @ -1 true and just go to another open table about to begin.

I can sim the play without optimally departing and with the following bet spread I get:

1x100 @ neutral and negative counts

1x500 @ +1 true

Max out 1x1000 @ +2 true

Win Rate: 325$/hr

ROR 0.1% on my bank

N0 = 280 hours (@100 rounds per hour)

My question is, how much will optimally departing help me here to improve win rate and reduce N0? I understand the lag factor (how quickly you can find a new fresh open table) but like i said they have many many tables open usually waiting for a new player. If the lag is particularly bad (a lot of customers, hard to find open tables) I can wait till -2 or even -3 true to optimally depart. Thanks for any feedback.

Also, is there a way to calculate optimal departure effects on CVCX?


Thanks a lot for any advice

Dalmatian

[Freightman]

I often comment on easily beating sims with various strategies including departure from optimal ramping. Though true, it doesn’t preclude me from having my ass handed to me from time to time - which happened recently.

Now, my loss was in the 4K area with my ramping on the the lower spectrum due to my philosophies on QTC. ROR in the .001 area.
1. Compare your .1 ROR to my .001 ROR.
2. Despite the still low ROR, I have a feeling that variance is through the roof.

Summary - possibility of total crash and burn with total decimation in 1 session. Kelly is there for a reason. Also, for shits and giggles, when next to my office, I’ll sim your ROR numbers using a bank of 200k, 300k, and 400k. Second last but not least, I’ve also commented on your subtlety of ramp escalation compared to store back offs. Last, but not least - too much risk for too little reward - A $1000 max bet needs to generate more than a high variance $325 per hour.