Typical Media Betting Earnee Stupidity
These days I seldom listen to radio shows/watch TV shows in which the hosts ‘analyze and predict games’ and make point spread predictions. For my needed information (which helps my bets/selections for clients), I read a few on-line stories (“The Bleacher Report” is most helpful in this regard/though I ‘dabble’ in other online spots) or read newspapers of the cities of the teams involved in the information I wish to find out about. When I do my reading, I ALWAYS separate REAL FACTS (which I care much about) from WRITER OPINIONS (which mean virtually nothing to me). My present nearly universal ‘boycott’ of media prediction sources happened for two reasons.
1) I came to realize that these radio hosts say NOTHING of any value to me. Thus, it is a waste of my time.
2) To be somewhat boastful, NONE of these folks research or check out the various ‘angles’ on games the way and with the thoroughness that I do.
3) Years back (from 1983-1990) I was part of the sports media. Having ‘been there’, I KNOW that every person on these shows—where ‘politics’ and ‘butt kissing’ is rewarded with the big bucks and actual competency means and earns NOTHING—would see/talk to me with total contempt. I try to keep such folks out of ALL parts of my life.
However, today, as I was relaxing/sleeping a little in my car on a nice fall day, I ‘broke my boycott’ as I listened to a sports related radio station.
One selection made by one of these ‘esteemed media pundits’ was on the Packers now at -1 ½ over the Bears. As I implied earlier in the week, I favored the same side when the Packers were GETTING one point and not LAYING 1 ½ points. Of course, I knew and had long digested all of the factors that this ‘pundit’ was talking about: this was a key divisional game for the Packers who will fall two games behind the Bears if they lose, plus fall to 0-2 in their division, how poor and injured the Bear defense is, etc.
However, since the Packers were ALSO UP LAST WEEK FOR THEIR GAME AT DETROIT AND WERE BADLY OUTPLAYED IN THAT GAME, THAT RESULT INFLUENCED MY LETTER POWER RATING ON THEM. (Which I shared with you earlier in the week.) This, in turn, made me aware that the Packers (who my power rating favors in this week’s game in Chicago by ½ a point) would have the needed value for us to bet them—BUT ONLY AT +2 ½ POINTS. This price, at least in the world I live in, never existed and thus this game became a pass to me.
In fact, the +1 on the Packers quickly went to -1 ½ on them and now is -2, which in turn has destroyed ANY price value they had (at +1). For me, a team having no price value means no bet is made on them.
The media ‘pundit’ making this ‘strong selection’ said that what often influences his ‘thinking’ is ‘how the early week lines move.’ In this obvious betting earnees mind since the line had moved from Packers +1 to Packers – 1 ½, he obviously liked ‘the right side’ since ‘the smart money did as well.’
What never occurs to a betting earnee like this is that ANYTIME one takes the worst of a line move his chances of winning his bet decrease. Though it is true that one is NOT a ‘key’ NFL number (and the chances of a game ending in a tie are rather remote), this rule still holds.
I think I can safely predict that this media ‘pundit’ either has NO method of power rating games (or coming up with the REAL PRICE on them) or any ‘system’ he has of doing such is a joke.
Let me now share with you part of a new chapter in my revised “Memoirs of a Sports Betting and Blackjack Earner” book, which deals with types of game betting situations. The above-described Packer-Bear one is entitled a “Bath Room Game” which—virtually without exception—should be avoided by betting EARNERS. I hope that this read helps each of you gain further betting insights and helps you further earn on your wagers—even in betting situations where I am not advising you!!
. Bathroom Games
As implied in my “Memoirs,” one is betting a “Bathroom Game” when one bets at worse than the opening number. I quickly saw the comparison of doing this with going to use a bathroom that many people had just used. Doing so in both instances, I felt truly ‘stunk!’ Since I like to live my life in as little discomfort as possible, I try to avoid smelly bathrooms as well as poor value or ‘stinky’ lines. If I am to bet what WILL BECOME a Bathroom Game (a game in which the line will move in the direction I bet it), I want to be ‘the first person to use the bathroom!’
One sees Bathroom Games virtually every day in the sports betting world. Their biggest existence comes during the NFL season when many bettors who have no early week betting access bet late in the week into massively adjusted and usually poor value lines. Again, these bettors are like folks using a bathroom that ALREADY HAS HAD MAJOR USAGE!! These bettors have all sorts of excuses/rationalizations for their earnee betting behavior. Some of these excuses are:
A) “The ‘smart money’ likes my side.” It never occurs to such Bathroom Game betting earnees that perhaps the ‘smart money liked their side at a far different price.’ Maybe the ‘smart money’ felt there was good value at -3 but that they would never even consider giving the -4 (or higher) that the earnee is now laying. Also never considered by the betting earnee is that maybe (as discussed in the “Stupid Sports Betting Myths” chapter) ‘the smart money is not that smart.’ If the ‘smart money’ is making a poor value wager giving -3, what long range chances do Bathroom Game betting earnees have giving -4 or higher on the game??!!
B) “What difference does the price make? If I bet the ‘right side’ I will win no matter what price I give.”
If you have read my book to this point, you ALREADY KNOW how stupid that ‘thinking’ is! I will just add here that bookmakers LOVE bettors with this mindset!
As I mentioned in both the “Stupid Betting Myths” chapter as well as in the “Earnee Bettor” chapter piece on Mike (AKA the Fat Boy) Francesa, there is a very simple but fundamental fact of wagering. (This fact holds in both point-spread and odds wagering, but will use point-spread examples here.) The better the price one is able to make his bet at, the better the chance of winning. If, for example, one lays -3 on a game, one will ALWAYS do better than if -4 ½ is given. In its basic premise, there are NO EXCEPTIONS to this principle.
The only RARE cases in which I might consider betting at a number worse than the opening number is if key NEW INFORMATION (most often SIGNIFICANT INJURIES) that was unknown, now becomes known to me.
To use an NBA example, let us say that the home Miami Heat (now with their ‘Big Three’ lineup) is four-point favorites on the opening line over the visiting LA Clippers. When I see this line, I am of the assumption that both teams are healthy. Let us now assume that it becomes known to me that LeBron (AKA Zucchini Ears) James will NOT PLAY in this game due to some injury. In my power ratings, Zucchini Ears has a five-point ‘worth’ to the Heat. Let us now say that the Heat now—when I ascertained this information--are -2 ½ instead of -4 point favorites over the Clippers. Since a 1 ½ point adjustment is far less than a five point one (this does not even take into account the ‘further’ value in my power rating in betting a road superior team), the Clippers now—AT LEAST IN TERMS OF VALUE—are a better bet at +2 ½ with NO ZUCCHINI EARS IN THE HEAT LINE-UP THAN THEY WERE AT +4 AGAINST THE HEAT WITH A HEALTHY ZUCCHINI EARS. (Of course, there are other factors to consider in the above mythical Clipper-Heat game, which might also determine my actions on it.)
Another situation in which I am sure that at times, ‘take the worst of the price’ (or even could be said that I am making a “Bathroom Bet”) at times is on my pre-season NFL and NBA over/under season win bets. The reason I am willing to do such here is that when I make my bets I have far more ACCURATE information to use than I do when the lines are first put up. In the NFL and NBA pre-season injuries, changes of season expectations, and major line-up changes can drastically revise an ACCURATE ESTIMATION as concerns a team’s upcoming season performance. Over the long run of my sports betting career (which included 18 seasons of betting NFL season over/under win numbers and 13 seasons of betting NBA ones) my gaining more accurate information has been a ‘winning exchange’ versus getting the best number on an early bet but having far inferior information.
Three examples of how ‘later information’ helped overcome my betting ‘bad numbers:’
1) For most of the 2007 NFL pre-season, the Jaguars seemed that they would be continuing to use Bryon Leftwich at quarterback. I much felt that David Gerrard was the far better quarterback choice. As the pre-season ended, the Jaguars, quite unexpectedly, made what I considered the correct choice in promoting Gerrard to starting quarterback (and also cut Leftwich at the same time). This move, in my letter power ratings, moved the Jaguars from a C team to a B- one. In turn, that heightened the Jaguar ‘performance’ in my ‘season-play out.’ In it, the Jaguars were projected to be close to an 11 win team. Betting over 8 ½ wins now had value. Betting over the earlier number of eight wins (with LEFTWICH as the quarterback) would NOT have given an ‘over 8’ win bet (1/2 game less than what I later went over) much value at all. With Gerrard at the helm, the Jaguars won 11 games. If Leftwich had been at the helm, I much doubt the Jaguars would have had a won-loss record even close to 11-5.
2) In each of the 2012-2013 (33 wins) and 2013-2014 NBA (36 ½ wins) seasons I went OVER on the Toronto Raptor season win total. Characteristics I noted about their pre-season performances led to both bets. In 2013-14 I also bet and won an Atlantic Division (+14.00 or 14-1) future bet on the Raptors. That bet was based not only on what I observed about the Raptors, but my observations of their main Atlantic Division competition (Brooklyn Nets and New York Knicks), as well.
On all three winning Raptor bets, I probably would have received better numbers earlier in the pre-season. However, in each case, I would bet without vital insights and information, which made these bets, certain earning ones.
However, the vast majority of the time, I have the needed information when the ‘Bathroom Game barometer’ (opening line) is post. Thus, the vast majority of the time I am EXTREMELY insistent on betting at NO WORSE A PRICE THAN THE OPENING LINE! In other words, the vast majority of the time I avoid betting Bathroom Games! Tied in with this is insistence to having access to early lines to take advantage of their weaknesses or in effect being, the FIRST PERSON IN THE BATH ROOM!
Here are just a couple of examples of how my avoiding Bath Room Games helped in my 2013 NFL betting season.
1) In Week Four, the opening line of the Seahawks at the Texans favored the Seahawks at -3 (at -1.25 vig). I was able to get +3 ½ on the Texans. Though they blew a 20-3 third quarter lead (this game destroyed the Texans season in which they ended 2-14 in losing their last 14 games) in a 20-23 overtime loss, I still won my bet. Millions of bettors piled in on the ‘hot side’ (BATHROOM GAME!) Texans at +2 ½ and even less (as little as +1). These Bathroom Game bettors lost their bets by ‘getting into a stinking bath room’ too late!
2) In Week Six, I took +3 ½ (with -1.25 vig) on the home underdog Ravens against the Packers. Once again, I got better than the opening line of +3 (-1.20) on the Ravens. The game quickly went down to +2 on the Ravens and closed at +1 ½. The bathroom stunk and its ‘door shut’ on the late week (‘following the smart money’) Raven bettors in their 17-19 loss (I will admit that this game was my luckiest win of the season).
Most ‘normal people’ spend nearly their entire sad and pathetic financial lives, in effect, betting/living Bathroom Games. They follow the ‘smart advice’ in the stock market and forever buy at $20 a share when early access would have given them $10. They forever buy retail instead of wholesale. In pensions and other ‘deals’ their employer gets them, they take the worst of it; this sometimes results—as it did for many in the 2008 Financial Meltdown (Swindle)—in their entire financial future being destroyed. They work for bosses who ‘generously’ pay them $25 an hour, while themselves making $50 an hour off their labor. (In addition, the parasitic bosses deduct all employee costs on their tax returns, which in the long run causes the employee to further get swindled on his taxes—and further with the tax withholding swindle/theft—which I described further in the last chapter of this book (“How an Earner Views the World”).
One can truly say that financially speaking that the lives of the hundreds of millions of ‘normal’ Americans truly STINK since their lives forever involve them in betting Bathroom Games! This also happens most often when they make their earnee sports wagers!
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