Do playing deviations give you an extra % edge over the current 1-2% average edge that comes from counting, or are all the true count index playing deviations already factored into the 1-2% average edge someone gets from counting cards?
I remember that i believe Semyon Dukach has mentioned that it adds 15-20% somewhere but maybe i misunderstood it in the wrong context. 15-20% does seem a bit high and I'm wondering if hes applying that 15-20% to the additional 1-2% from counting.
Last edited by RoadWarrior; 09-04-2014 at 03:43 PM.
This is an ambiguous question. It seems you are implying that counting while using BS for decisions gets you the edge you think you are getting.
It is actually a complicated interweaving between playing and betting. You calculate an optimal bet ramp for your BR and desired ROR and your spread. The more accurate your playing decisions the more you can bet using the same BR and ROR. So better playing decisions allows you to win more hands but also allows you to be betting more without increasing your long term risk. This in turn lowers your N0 (increases SCORE) and slightly decreases variance even though it increases win rate.
So as you can see making strong playing decisions makes every stat that is important in BJ better and the gain from a PE boost is only a very small part from how many hands you would play differently. The gain is in every important statistic that a counter cares about. Getting more money out at the same risk when you have an advantage, a higher EV, lower variance, lower N0, higher SCORE and making some marginal or unplayable games playable. In my book anything you can do accurately to increase PE is worth it. Not because you will win a few more hands but because your optimal play will be more aggressive and more accurate than if you didn't use it. Nothing like a steeper EV with a tighter probability cone (cone of uncertainty) for making your results far easier to stomach. I tried to find illustrations of probability cones for BJ but I failed. Basically a plot of EV over rounds played with lines around it at plus or minus 1, 2 and 3 standard deviation for optimal bets for your BR, RoR and spread using each set of playing deviations is a probability cone. You can really visualize just what you gain from increasing playing decision accuracy.
You don't know how many times people with a lot of blackjack experience and knowledge talk about the PE gain as if it is only from the rare instance it would change the decision at hand. The truth is you gain on every bet you make and the gain is to every important stat in blackjack. They may come up with a 5% increase in EV for a more complex approach. Sure its 5% if you bet sub-optimally, the same way you bet when your decisions were less accurate. But I am going to bet optimally for my BR and desired RoR for my spread. That means larger bets for each +EV situation with no additional long run risk and a 15 to 20% increase in EV for common more complicated approaches.
Anyway, as you can see you asked a question that has lots of things that play into the answer. I hope this post was helpful.
Last edited by Three; 09-04-2014 at 05:06 PM.
I'm not reall asking about PE per se, im asking about does it increase our overall edge 15-20% as Semyon Dukach mentioned? We all know straight counting gives us a 1-2% advantage over the casino, i just want to know if those play deviations are factored into that 1-2% or is 15-20% added to 1-2% from perfect playing deviations giving us a 16-17% edge or 21-22% edge?
Ahh ok I assume thats what Semyon was referring too and originally thought that as well. Thanks for the clarification.Originally Posted by Tthree
But I was hoping it would add 15-20% edge on that particular round? Oh well, but it does answer my question that playing deviations are not factored into the original 1-2% avg edge a counter has, it DOES increase 15-20%
Last edited by RoadWarrior; 09-04-2014 at 06:00 PM.
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