Sharky's NFL play of the week

[Three]

1. NE@ Indy: Good lord, I totally want to believe that's going to be a 75 point game, because it has all the makings to historically do so. New England is playing great, Indy is playing great, the line here is set at 58 points, and I'm taking the over. You've got to believe Andrew Luck will keep this one close, or pull out the game winning drive, and you know New England is going to pick apart that defense pretty badly. I'd love to see this a low scoring game, but Brady vs. Luck has been building up to become a thing of beauty.

2. Den @ STL: Stl is switching QB's, Denver is on the road, line is set at 51 points, take the under.

3. Sea @ KC: Line is set at 42 points, you've got to believe these two running teams will keep a low scoring game early, with the game breaking out in the 3rd quarter. I'm taking the over on this one. KC hasn't put up 30 points in a while, I expect them to do it this week against an imposter Seattle team who has their hands full defensively. KC offense will light up the Seattle Defense with Kelce looking to start his first game and potentially playing 75%+ of the offensive snaps. This might just be the week that he has his super duper breakout game and goes over 100 receiving yards, his YAC is amazing and he'll be in constant mismatches all game long.

4. Pittsburgh @ Ten, line set at 47 points, not going to happen, take the Under.

5. Phi @ GB line set at 55 points, I don't like this game, smells like a heartbreaker. I don't trust Mark Sanchez in any offense, but I trust Chip Kelly to get points on the board, I also Trust the pack to put up 30+ in this game against that defense. I'm taking the over.

1) I have this as an under with totals of 45 and 48 but I learned my lesson last week so I didn't pick it.

2) This one was too close to bet even though both scores had the same total. I got a total of 53 which is over but not enough for a bet.

3) I get totals of 40 and 41.5. Both barely under so it was a no play.

4) I get totals of 38.7 and 43. This is a strong play.

5) I get totals of 54 and 57 making it a no play but I picked it due to a better line and what the check I use for my predictions from another source I respect having a much higher total. I use this source as a check to look closer at plays that either disagree with it or plays I may have missed. After second review prompted by this check I decided that my numbers had a conservative bias bumping it into a play.

Looks like 2-1 and 2 coin flips. Good luck.

[Exoter175]

Eight in the box isn't used to frequently in games. Usually just on goal line or short yardage late down situations. It is pretty lame that you act like he will be at the line stopping the run every play. All that yardage given up or gained by KC and SEA is most likely not in this situation. Nice try at trying to snow me but I do know the game very well. Let me translate. On the plays that SEA gains all those big gains to get 5.7 yards/rush average there most likely was not eight in the box. On all those plays by opposing offenses that gained all the yards to have a 4.7 yards/rush average there were most likely not eight in the box. The eight in the box defense is for short yardage almost certain run plays. Goal line stands and 3rd or 4th and 1 yard to go. Calling a guy that only plays those situations an important guy to change the run stats shows a lack of understanding of the game or a con job by your post.


If you bothered to read my post you would see that I said SEA would have no trouble moving the ball down the field but KC has not given up a rushing TD all season (a streak I predicted would end this week) so the question is will SEA find the endzone or just kick a lot of field goals. Then I said if SEA is finding the endzone KC will have a long day.

You must learn when to ignore stats because the matchup is unique enough that the stats from other teams aren't representative of the game in question. I prefer dominate stats like SEA rush against KC run D. It is easily predicted what will happen. The next best thing is matching stats on both sides of the football. This tends to be predictable like tonight's game, BUF rush attack vs MIA rush D.
BUF rush O: 25.4 runs/game, 3.9 yards/rush, 100.2 yards/game, 3 TDs and 3 fumbles.
MIA rush D: 25.3 runs/game, 3.9 yards/rush, 99 yards/game, 4 TDs and 5 fumbles.

The tricky ones are the mismatches like KC rush against SEA Run D. You can guess that the result will be in the middle but one may win the matchup maintaining its dominance while neutralizing the other teams great record for the matchup.

Looking at how 2 QBs stack up against each other is meaningless. They never face each other on the field. Comparing eight in the box defense to general rushing stats is meaningless.

Just as anticipated the dominance in the trenches of BUF D against the MIA O-line is apparent in the game tonight. Whether that is enough to neutralize the MIA scoring threat only time will tell.

Comparing general rushing stats to general defensive stats is meaningless.

Unless you understand how the Chiefs will use Eric Berry now that he's back in the lineup and healthy, you'll likely assume way too much about the defense, or way to little.

Eric Berry, when healthy, is the single best Strong Safety in the league, arguably the best safety, period. He's a big time run defender and pass coverage playmaker, and his TFL stats (run game specifically) are out of this world.

I compared one QB to another the other week, against your advice, and I won that contest. Argue all you want about how they don't see the field at the same time, but its one guys turn vs. the next, and each drive's success or lack thereof alters the moves of the opposing QB in chess match games like Manning V Brady.

In all honesty, you're looking at some very interesting numbers, and by interesting, I mean, numbers that won't matter in this game, or numbers that don't matter, in general.

Did you know that Seattle is the worst defense in the league when defending against passes under 10 yards? Did you know Kansas City has the best offense when passing under 10 yards? Did you know that Alex Smith has over 80% of his passes within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage?

ToP is a HUGE deal in a game like this, and Seattle simply won't have the opportunities to run against Kansas City, the way these two teams match up. A majority of the rushing yards will come from broken plays with QB pressure where Wilson has to break the pocket and get to the edge, and I mean the MAJORITY of it, too. Lynch won't have a big game this weekend, despite you so enthusiastically assuming so because of a statistical anomaly last week.

[Sharky]

This week features a rare DOUBLE play-o-the-weak as both matchups graded equally value wise:

KANSAS CITY continues to roll having won 4 straight and 6 of their last 7 games…defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks have won 3 straight against the lowly NY Giants, Oakland and Carolina after losing at St Louis and home to the Cowboys…KANSAS CITY’s ARROWHEAD Stadium reclaimed the Guinness world record for loudest stadium, beating Seattle’s Century Link field, in their 41-14 rout over New England earlier this year…the Hawks are a pedestrian 2-2 on the road and the CHIEFS are anything, but….roll Chiefs roll, take KANSAS CITY -1.5

The 49ers visit the NY Giants and are trying to stay relevant in the NFC wildcard chase after making it the NFC championship game the previous 2 years…the G-Men have lost 4 straight and ATS while being outscored 136-62….the 49res welcome back QB menacing LB Aldon Smith who has amassed an amazing 42 career sacks in 43 games…these teams are heading in opposite directions…in a real snozzzZZZZZzzzer, take the SAN FRANCISCO – 4

GOOD LUCK!

Sharky

Last week: 1-0
Season: 6-4

edit: in at pick and -3.5

[Three]

Unless you understand how the Chiefs will use Eric Berry now that he's back in the lineup and healthy, you'll likely assume way too much about the defense, or way to little.

Players coming off an injury are never 100%. They come back when they can play and re-injury risks are low enough. Schedule and playoff hopes can cause a player to come back too early or get extra rest to recover.

I compared one QB to another the other week, against your advice, and I won that contest.

I can't believe on a sight that is all about stats that you would act like this was the correct analysis because you gat a good result. That is the most ploppy-like statement I have heard in a while.

Did you know that Seattle is the worst defense in the league when defending against passes under 10 yards? Did you know Kansas City has the best offense when passing under 10 yards? Did you know that Alex Smith has over 80% of his passes within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage?

N But KC will run the ball 50% of the time no matter what happens in the game. They stick to their offensive game plan religiously. No other team in the NFL is harder to get to go off their style of play.
You want to compare passers by zone.
Russell Wilson:
Mid-range passing (5 to 15 yards): rank #2 passer rating 108
Long-range passing (15+ yard passes): rank #5 passer rating 110
Leads the league in mid-range passing to the right.


Alex Smith:
Doesn't make the league leaders (top 5) in any general range passing category.
But he leads the league in mid-range middle passing.

Seattle simply won't have the opportunities to run against Kansas City, the way these two teams match up.

So KC has the second worst yards/play rush defense against the best rush offense and they will shut the best rush offense (a run first offense) down. I what fantasy world do you live in. I agree that SEA will get a ton of scramble yards against the over aggressive KC defense. Aggression works great against most teams but the openings left behind by an aggressive move will either be exploited by Wilson passing or Wiison running. This is where a KC strength will be their achilles heal in this matchup.

A majority of the rushing yards will come from broken plays with QB pressure where Wilson has to break the pocket and get to the edge, and I mean the MAJORITY of it, too.

Like I said Wilson is a huge part of the run game for SEA. hat you say just means SEA will have a much better than average day running the ball. Teams that get a lot of sacks get killed by SEA. If you bring your D-backs up to cover the scramble his incredible Mid-range and deep passing stats kill you. You must wait for Wilson to cross the line of scrimmage to commit to stopping him or you get big time burned. It is a unique headache for the opposing D. The more aggressive the D the worse they fair.

Look at what has happened this year:
GB: 22 sacks this year. GB lost in a blowout 16-36. They got 1 sack for no yards. Wilson gained 27 yards in 7 attempts.
SD: 15 sacks this year. SD won 21-30. They got 2 sacks for 22 yards. Wilson gained 18 yards in 2 attempts.
DEN: 24 sacks this year. DEN lost 20-26. They got 3 sacks for 27 yards. Wilson gained 17 yards in 1 attempt.
WAS: 23 sacks this year. WAS lost big 27-17. They got 1 sack for 8 yards. Wilson gained 122 yards in 11 attempts.
DAL: 10 sacks. DAL won 30-23. They got 2 sacks for no yards. Wilson gained 12 yards in 2 attempts.
STL: 17 sacks. STL won 26-28. They got 3 sacks for 21 yards. Wilson gained 106 yards in 7 attempts.
CAR: 21 sacks. CAR lost 31-9. They got 1 sack for 8 yards. Wilson gained 35 yards in 6 attempts.
OAK: 8 sacks. OAK lost 24-30. They got 1 sack for 2 yards. Wilson gained 31 yards in 8 attempts.
NYG: 16 sacks. NYG lost in a blowout 17-38. They got 2 sacks for 12 yards. Wilson got 107 yards in 14 attempts.

So SEA is teams with 20 sacks or more are 0-4 against SEA. These teams are GB, DEN, WAS and CAR. Now GB and DEN are two of the best teams in the NFC. KC has 28 sacks. Wilson is just a nightmare to blitz against. He finds the uncovered receiver or picks up yards on his own if the receivers are covered.

The trouble with facing SEA is you are facing the QB rated #3 in the league. The best running game in the league. They are a run first team which is something you rarely face. If you line up to stop the run you are facing the #3 rated passer in the league If you play for the pass and blitz Wilson rolls right and either beats you on foot or hits the open receivers left on the right to stop the run. That is why Wilson is the top rated QB for right mid-range passes and close to the top rating for deep right passes. You leave him alone and you have the 3rd best passer with time to throw. It is almost impossible to stop such a versatile offense.

[Exoter175]

Players coming off an injury are never 100%. They come back when they can play and re-injury risks are low enough. Schedule and playoff hopes can cause a player to come back too early or get extra rest to recover.


I can't believe on a sight that is all about stats that you would act like this was the correct analysis because you gat a good result. That is the most ploppy-like statement I have heard in a while.


N But KC will run the ball 50% of the time no matter what happens in the game. They stick to their offensive game plan religiously. No other team in the NFL is harder to get to go off their style of play.
You want to compare passers by zone.
Russell Wilson:
Mid-range passing (5 to 15 yards): rank #2 passer rating 108
Long-range passing (15+ yard passes): rank #5 passer rating 110
Leads the league in mid-range passing to the right.


Alex Smith:
Doesn't make the league leaders (top 5) in any general range passing category.
But he leads the league in mid-range middle passing.


So KC has the second worst yards/play rush defense against the best rush offense and they will shut the best rush offense (a run first offense) down. I what fantasy world do you live in. I agree that SEA will get a ton of scramble yards against the over aggressive KC defense. Aggression works great against most teams but the openings left behind by an aggressive move will either be exploited by Wilson passing or Wiison running. This is where a KC strength will be their achilles heal in this matchup.
Like I said Wilson is a huge part of the run game for SEA. hat you say just means SEA will have a much better than average day running the ball. Teams that get a lot of sacks get killed by SEA. If you bring your D-backs up to cover the scramble his incredible Mid-range and deep passing stats kill you. You must wait for Wilson to cross the line of scrimmage to commit to stopping him or you get big time burned. It is a unique headache for the opposing D. The more aggressive the D the worse they fair.

Look at what has happened this year:
GB: 22 sacks this year. GB lost in a blowout 16-36. They got 1 sack for no yards. Wilson gained 27 yards in 7 attempts.
SD: 15 sacks this year. SD won 21-30. They got 2 sacks for 22 yards. Wilson gained 18 yards in 2 attempts.
DEN: 24 sacks this year. DEN lost 20-26. They got 3 sacks for 27 yards. Wilson gained 17 yards in 1 attempt.
WAS: 23 sacks this year. WAS lost big 27-17. They got 1 sack for 8 yards. Wilson gained 122 yards in 11 attempts.
DAL: 10 sacks. DAL won 30-23. They got 2 sacks for no yards. Wilson gained 12 yards in 2 attempts.
STL: 17 sacks. STL won 26-28. They got 3 sacks for 21 yards. Wilson gained 106 yards in 7 attempts.
CAR: 21 sacks. CAR lost 31-9. They got 1 sack for 8 yards. Wilson gained 35 yards in 6 attempts.
OAK: 8 sacks. OAK lost 24-30. They got 1 sack for 2 yards. Wilson gained 31 yards in 8 attempts.
NYG: 16 sacks. NYG lost in a blowout 17-38. They got 2 sacks for 12 yards. Wilson got 107 yards in 14 attempts.

So SEA is teams with 20 sacks or more are 0-4 against SEA. These teams are GB, DEN, WAS and CAR. Now GB and DEN are two of the best teams in the NFC. KC has 28 sacks. Wilson is just a nightmare to blitz against. He finds the uncovered receiver or picks up yards on his own if the receivers are covered.

The trouble with facing SEA is you are facing the QB rated #3 in the league. The best running game in the league. They are a run first team which is something you rarely face. If you line up to stop the run you are facing the #3 rated passer in the league If you play for the pass and blitz Wilson rolls right and either beats you on foot or hits the open receivers left on the right to stop the run. That is why Wilson is the top rated QB for right mid-range passes and close to the top rating for deep right passes. You leave him alone and you have the 3rd best passer with time to throw. It is almost impossible to stop such a versatile offense.

Nothing but more long winded remarks about empty statistics.

Let me touch on a few things real quick.

1. Players are never 100% when coming off injury? Perhaps, but did you know the Chiefs intentionally held Eric Berry out longer than needed so that he'd come back and play 100% healthy? Even when 100% healthy, they eased his introduction back to the defense over the last two weeks partially because of outstanding play from new signees (A mark where your analysis you keep posting about grades them as an F), and partially because of the packages we'd be using against those teams.

2. Blitzing teams are 0-4 against Russel Wilson and the Seahawks, and he causes them nightmares. How often do you think Kansas City actually blitzes? Do some research on this one, Kansas City RARELY blitzes. In fact, most of their sacks come from a 3 or 4 man rush while dropping 7 or 8 into coverage/contain/spy. Kyle Orton, one of the worst passers in the league against the blitz, didn't get blitzed much last week, do you know why? Because KC chose to tighten up the deep passing attack and limit the Bills offense to short, pedestrian passes to keep the ball in front of them. They call this the "bend but don't break" mentality. Do you know what statistic is the most "harmed" in this kind of defensive play? Yards Per Carry. When you are dropping 7 or 8 guys back into coverage, you're giving yourself a huge mismatch against the run when you've got 3 or 4 guys trying to teat up the offensive line and very often a Tight End, to stop the run. In situations like these, its very common to give up 3-5 yards per carry when you're facing a 6 on 4 blocking affair.

3. Your underhanded remark about statistics on a statistics site is ridiculous. I'm giving you reasons why you shouldn't put as much stock in some of your stats, and giving you statistics that matter, and you're shooting me down for "empty" statistics.

4. Quit talking about the "best rushing offense". They gained 350 yards last week in a statistical anomaly of a game. If you take away the "over expectation" yards, they are 3rd in the league. And even then you'd make more weight of that than you should, with Kansas City facing many run first teams this year, and then coupling that with having faced the best QB's in the game which does nothing but make the run game more effective against this style of defense.

5. What is all this nonsense about Russel Wilson being the #3 rated passer in the league? According to the stats you follow so adamantly, he's the #36 passer in the league according to Passer Rating, on the 31st rated passing team. But no, you want to skew his statistics a little to justify your argument.

6. Lets look at a few points that matter. Kansas City having faced the harder schedule thusfar in the season, with Seattle pretty close on its coattails, Seattle has scored 2.x more points per game than KC, but gives up 3.x more points per game than KC. KC gives up about 17 points per game, and scores 24. Seattle scores about 27 points per game, and gives up 21. (Numbers rounded up and down of course).

Take those numbers into consideration with KC being a 3-1 home team and 3-2 road team. Now bring Seattle into Arrowhead stadium, loudest stadium in the league where you simply can't go off of cadence or make that many audibles, and Kansas City will have your number from the first whistle, especially with Kansas City fans being there in support, snow or not. This is a "playoff" game to us in Kansas City. This is the only game left on the schedule we can afford to lose, and we don't want to lose it because we want to keep pace with Denver in the division, with 1 more matchup, at Arrowhead, between them left to play.

In fact, to date, if Kansas City wins out their division matchups, including that game at Arrowhead with the Broncos, and both teams finish with the same records, the tie breaker will go to division games, in which they will tie, and then to common games. Where as of this week, Kansas City would hold a 1 game advantage over the Broncos, if they beat Seattle this week.

That's a ton of motivation for this team, at home, and for this crowd.

Another statistic you've failed to talk about that matters? Time of Possession. Kansas City is #7 in TOP for offense, Seattle #11. #6 on defensive ToP for KC, # 13 for Seattle.

Remember that remark I made about Seattle not having much of a chance to get drives going? That's what I mean, that's what I'm implying. If the Chiefs are averaging about 4 more minutes with the ball per game, they are going to beat you because either they are leading, or they are within a single drive of beating you.

I baffles me to believe you could be so adamant about Seattle running the ball, when the Chiefs have the #3 ranked defense against 3rd down conversions, while Seattle is ranked #23. You make this big deal about Kansas City's defense giving up so much because of a 20th ranked defense "supposedly", yet they are #9 in yards per play allowed and #5 in first downs allowed per game.

Give me a break, quit looking at just "yardage".

[Math Demon]

1. NE@ Indy: Good lord, I totally want to believe that's going to be a 75 point game, because it has all the makings to historically do so. New England is playing great, Indy is playing great, the line here is set at 58 points, and I'm taking the over.

1) I have this as an under with totals of 45 and 48 but I learned my lesson last week so I didn't pick it.

Not siding with anyone, just stating the stats.

Since 2005, there had been 4 games with OU at 57 or more. All four (4) went over the OU line with the winners' minimum score at 45 points: 45-14, 45-28, 52-20, and 45-21.

The average totals for IND (9 games) = 55.68, and NE (9 games) = 53.21. And that's just IND's and NE's average game. Now imagine each team trying to outscore each other for 60 minutes.

BTW, DEN @ NE was 43-21 (total of 64), and that was with windy, cold, and snowy conditions. IND is the highest-scoring team, and NE is 4th (DEN is 2nd). With the contest indoors, how much higher than 64 can it get?

[Gamblor]

One more:

pit -6 vs TEN - Last week's Jets game was a fluke, typical trap game - I didn't pick Jets because the travel distance wasn't that great. And you need balls of steel to bet on the Jets. I guess I don't have those.

[Math Demon]

1. NE@ Indy: Good lord, I totally want to believe that's going to be a 75 point game, because it has all the makings to historically do so. New England is playing great, Indy is playing great, the line here is set at 58 points, and I'm taking the over.

1) I have this as an under with totals of 45 and 48 but I learned my lesson last week so I didn't pick it.

Not siding with anyone, just stating the stats.

Since 2005, there had been 4 games with OU at 57 or more. All four (4) went over the OU line with the winners' minimum score at 45 points: 45-14, 45-28, 52-20, and 45-21.

The average totals for IND (9 games) = 55.68, and NE (9 games) = 53.21. And that's just IND's and NE's average game. Now imagine each team trying to outscore each other for 60 minutes.

BTW, DEN @ NE was 43-21 (total of 64), and that was with windy, cold, and snowy conditions. IND is the highest-scoring team, and NE is 4th (DEN is 2nd). With the contest indoors, how much higher than 64 can it get?

The final score for the NE&IND game is 42-20 (Over 57.5).

Since 2005, there had been 4 games with OU at 57 or more. All four (4) went over the OU line with the winners' minimum score at 45 points: 45-14, 45-28, 52-20, and 45-21.

The average totals for IND (9 games) = 55.68, and NE (9 games) = 53.21. And that's just IND's and NE's average game. Now imagine each team trying to outscore each other for 60 minutes.

The previous statements have to be updated: "Since 2005, there had been five (5) games with OU at 57 or more. All five (5) went over the OU line with the winners' minimum score at 42 points: 45-14, 45-28, 52-20, 45-21, and 42-20.

The average totals for IND (10 games) = 56.31, and NE (10 games) = 54.09"

[Three]

*** Note: DET tends to keep their games Under the total, both through great Defense and ineffective Offense. Unless this game becomes similar to the NYJ @ NE rivalry game, expect NE to score 42 to 51. You just need DET's Offense to score two FGs (like last week) to approach the Over.

Don't mistake the lack of need to score points for a team to play its best game wit ineffective offense. The best possible team will have a great D that is relied upon to win most games. In those games the offenses job is to win a field position battle with the other team while eating the clock and not turning the ball over. Unnecessarily aggressive offense can lose a game they would have won by either turning the ball over, not eating the clock enough or losing the field position battle which allows the opposition to score. If the team is really well rounded they do in fact have a great offense. In games that get away from the defense the offense is expected to step up and win the game rather than not lose it. Most Super Bowl winning teams fit this template.

There are two possible ways for this game to go. DET shuts down the big O of NE and play a conservative offense to not give NE too much time with the ball (eat the clock) or easy opportunities through turnovers which NE is very good at creating. Or NE scores some points and DET must play more aggressively on offense to win the game. Obviously the former will be an Under and the latter will probably go Over. Now NE has a better defense than their stats say because they give up a lot of garbage stats when they have a big lead.

[Three]

I am not trying to convince you of anything. I am not planning a pick on this game at this time. Winning teams convert those last minute drives for the points they need to secure a win and trust their defense to get a stop when they need it late in the game. DET has the talent to be such a team and the mindset and versatility to adjust their game strategy to what the game requires and execute that new game plan. That doesn't mean they will be successful every time but it does mean they will have a good shot at it.

Being a Ravens fan I get to watch them a lot. They have always aspired to be such a team. This year they too quickly get pushed off their best game plan involving a lot of running and commit to being a 1 dimensional passing team to catch up. Their passing game is good but not strong enough to be used as a 1 dimensional attack. They need the defense to have to cover the run in order to be more effective passing. They always had the defense to lean on but needed a ball control QB that didn't lose most games and could step up and win on those games that the defense doesn't win. This is a winning model that many teams are using today. SEA and SF fit that mold last year. People kept assuming they couldn't get the points when called for because their best team effort rarely required that of the offense. Then when it is required people are surprised the O can execute. This year you have DET, AZ and KC very successfully using this model. You have BAL, MIA, HOU, SF and SEA hoping to make this model work but not quite having the combination of skills to pull it off. Big O teams that are moving towards this model but not attempting to use it because they want to win a SB rather than get to a SB or Championship game are DEN, SD and DAL.

This model has been the most successful at winning Super Bowls in recent years. SEA last year (number 9 scoring offense at 26.1 pts/game, number scoring 1 defense at 14.4 pts/game) . BAL in 2012 season (10th in scoring but much of it was defense and special teams 24.9 pts/game, 12th in defense scoring 21.5 pts/game). Not the best performance for the model. While the Giants didn't fit this model for the entire season, the run that got them to the play offs and their playoff run did. Green Bay didn't quite fit this model in 2011. They had a great D but were more pass oriented on O (10th in scoring offense @ 24.2 pts/game, number 2 ranked scoring D @ 15 pts/game). The Saints didn't fit the model in 2009. The Steelers did in 2008 season (20th ranked scoring offense 21.7 pts/game and number 1 ranked scoring defense 13.9 pts/game).

It has not gone unnoticed by perennial conference championship contenders that their big O model fails when hitting this model in the final games of the post season.

My point is that ideally teams trying to use this model can win with offensive performance if need be but their best game plan is to only do so when necessary. No need to risk losing a game you could have won with a more conservative game plan. This game between DET and NE is such a matchup. Can DET D stop NE? If not can DET O step up to keep pace? Can DET get that last scoring push to end the game or get that stop at the end from their D? If I thought I had the answers I would be sure I would have a pick for this game. It should be an interesting matchup. DET held GB to 7 points and NO to 23. They got it done against both these big O teams but they were both played in DET.

[Math Demon]

I am not trying to convince you of anything. I am not planning a pick on this game at this time. Winning teams convert those last minute drives for the points they need to secure a win and trust their defense to get a stop when they need it late in the game. DET has the talent to be such a team and the mindset and versatility to adjust their game strategy to what the game requires and execute that new game plan. That doesn't mean they will be successful every time but it does mean they will have a good shot at it.

Being a Ravens fan I get to watch them a lot. They have always aspired to be such a team. This year they too quickly get pushed off their best game plan involving a lot of running and commit to being a 1 dimensional passing team to catch up. Their passing game is good but not strong enough to be used as a 1 dimensional attack. They need the defense to have to cover the run in order to be more effective passing. They always had the defense to lean on but needed a ball control QB that didn't lose most games and could step up and win on those games that the defense doesn't win. This is a winning model that many teams are using today. SEA and SF fit that mold last year. People kept assuming they couldn't get the points when called for because their best team effort rarely required that of the offense. Then when it is required people are surprised the O can execute. This year you have DET, AZ and KC very successfully using this model. You have BAL, MIA, HOU, SF and SEA hoping to make this model work but not quite having the combination of skills to pull it off. Big O teams that are moving towards this model but not attempting to use it because they want to win a SB rather than get to a SB or Championship game are DEN, SD and DAL.

This model has been the most successful at winning Super Bowls in recent years. SEA last year (number 9 scoring offense at 26.1 pts/game, number scoring 1 defense at 14.4 pts/game) . BAL in 2012 season (10th in scoring but much of it was defense and special teams 24.9 pts/game, 12th in defense scoring 21.5 pts/game). Not the best performance for the model. While the Giants didn't fit this model for the entire season, the run that got them to the play offs and their playoff run did. Green Bay didn't quite fit this model in 2011. They had a great D but were more pass oriented on O (10th in scoring offense @ 24.2 pts/game, number 2 ranked scoring D @ 15 pts/game). The Saints didn't fit the model in 2009. The Steelers did in 2008 season (20th ranked scoring offense 21.7 pts/game and number 1 ranked scoring defense 13.9 pts/game).

It has not gone unnoticed by perennial conference championship contenders that their big O model fails when hitting this model in the final games of the post season.

My point is that ideally teams trying to use this model can win with offensive performance if need be but their best game plan is to only do so when necessary. No need to risk losing a game you could have won with a more conservative game plan. This game between DET and NE is such a matchup. Can DET D stop NE? If not can DET O step up to keep pace? Can DET get that last scoring push to end the game or get that stop at the end from their D? If I thought I had the answers I would be sure I would have a pick for this game. It should be an interesting matchup. DET held GB to 7 points and NO to 23. They got it done against both these big O teams but they were both played in DET.

I know what you were trying to say, Tthree: "Don't assume that low-scoring teams are signs of an ineffective Offense."

I totally agreed with that statement. My subsequent response was to show that my statement of "DET has ineffective Offense" was directed at DET specifically, and backed up by stats.
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I think they have a great Defense as manifested by the lowest ppg and ypg. However, their Offense sucks!

DET W/L records have been 7-9 (2013), 4-12 (2012), 10-7 (2011), 6-10 (2010), 2-14 (2009), 0-16 (2008). I don't think they're following the SuperBowl formula.


BTW, DET holds the record for all-time loser, going 0-16 in 2008. A record which will never be broken until we go to a 17- or 18-game season, AND a team goes 0-17 or 0-18. Unfortunately, with more games, it's also harder to go winless.

[Sharky]

First I am happy to report that I made a mistake in my season record….the week before last had the same season's record, 6-4, as the previous week…so last week’s record should have been 7-4

All good things must come to an end…and, hopefully, I’m not referring to my current 6 game winning streak…Kansas City visits the RAIDERS tonight at the BLACK HOLE after moving into a tie with the Broncos who they play at home next week…as you know, I have been a staunch supporter of the undervalued Chiefs and have been buying all year….this week, I’m selling…take OAKLAND +7.5 for this week’s play.

Good Luck,

Sharky

Last week: 2-0
Season: 9-4

[Three]

DET W/L records have been 7-9 (2013), 4-12 (2012), 10-7 (2011), 6-10 (2010), 2-14 (2009), 0-16 (2008). I don't think they're following the SuperBowl formula.

They are improving and have a pretty good team. Stafford is a great QB. He has one of the best if not the best receiver in the league in "Megatron". Johnson has been hurt this year and missed some time. Now that the rosy part of their offense is out there, the warts are their O-line can't protect their QB and they have no rushing game. You need both of these to have a great O. The best QB's make sure they have a good O line as well as some great targets. If DET addresses their O-line issues with either better pass protection or better run blocking or in the best of all worlds both, they will have some a potent offense. Right now they are pretty one dimensional. You have to be pretty good at your 1 thing to pull that off. DET and KC are much in the same boat. They are emerging teams with just a few missing pieces playing in a division each dominated by great teams with the most potent offenses in the league. KC is a little further on their way but both are likely to play second fiddle in their division no matter what. DET won their division last year but only because Rogers missed 3 games late in the season. KC is in a good position to take their division this year after DEN lost and KC won last week but they need to beat DEN to make a tie mean something. Even then DEN probably win the tie breakers.

How this relates to the NE game is DET matches up OK with the NE D. They should be able to play their game without unusual difficulty. NE has a good and versatile D. The amount of garbage stats mixed into their stats can make them seem weaker on D. NE enjoys a good turnover advantage as much from their offense not turning the ball over as from their D getting takeaways. Both defenses have 16 takeaways but DET has given the ball over on offense more readily. NE doesn't turn the ball over much. The main thing notable about the DET O to NE D matchup is NE brings pressure and DET can't protect their QB very well. You are correct in that DET may have a tough day on offense but their offense is not well rounded. Until they address the O-line issues they will be one dimensional. Unless your team has a crappy pass defense DET will have to work hard to get a lot of points. Stafford does well when he has time so NE will bring the pressure. Stafford doesn't do well under pressure.

Until DET deals with a few issues on their offense the will be a good competitive team that must rely on the defense to win the game for them. The offense can be relied on not to lose the game but can't be relied upon to win games that get away from the defense. You are right that their offense is their achilles heal right now but I wouldn't go so far as to say the suck. They just are missing a few key pieces. You have correctly sighted the failing of their offense to win games where they had lots of time to do so. I think you are right that this game will not be won by their defense alone. The question is will NE tendency to give up garbage stats allow the DET O enough leeway to stay in the game when the clock is running out. You have to lay around 7 points to take NE. I think you are in good shape but NE did win a rout win under the lights on prime time last week. Sometimes there is a letdown after a win like that.