Sharky's NFL play of the week

[Exoter175]

I enjoy your posts. I was wondering how long you have been an advantage player at Blackjack? We seem to agree on many issues beyond the basic mechanics. Regarding sports, is it a hobby or do you depend on it for a part of your advantage play income? You don't have to answer. Just wondering.

That is a great time to be in Vegas if you like 4th of July celebrations, but if you're leaving on the 4th you'll miss them. There are multiple fireworks displays around town that rival any such celebrations around the world.

And it's a great time to join in a backyard barbeque if you happen to know anyone who resides there. On the downside, I remember one backyard barbeque on the 4th with temperatures of around 115 degrees. We sat in the shade under a string of hoses that showered a cool mist on us. Even at that, I was hoping our hosts would lead us back into the house, which they didn't.

I will be long gone by the time you arrive. My schedule is pretty much driven my my wife's need to return to her job in Virginia, although I usually precede her to Vegas by a couple of weeks.

Sharky will be the fist to tell you, there's no "real" advantage play in sports betting, so you've got to be on your A game with handicapping to be able to make any money with it. For me, sports betting is more of a "companion" to Fantasy Football, of which I am far more than just a fan or hobbyist. While there is no "advantage" there either, the amount of work and detail I put into FF gives me a competitive edge in most leagues. Of course, every league I play in has a money pool or it wouldn't be worth my time. Over the last 6 or 7 years I think I've taken down about 65% of the pools I've played for and that equates to about a modest 4 figure income year after year. Nothing to live on, but something that I can count on from my undying love for the game of football. As for blackjack, I think I'm on month number 9 as far as "taking it seriously" is concerned, and machine/vp plays I'm 8 or 9 years into now. Though, it was only until the last 5 or 6 months that I went heavy into the VP side of things as far as machine/vp is concerned.

Exoter: PS-- You should be Peyton Manning's agent. I'm hoping for the best for him, as well. There are a few players who stand out over the years and he's one of them. My all time favorite QB-- can you guess?-- is Joe Montana. He's one who never disappointed.

I loved Peyton when he was a Colt, but ever since he joined "my" division I've had to force myself to dislike him. When he is retired as a player, I'll be a happy camper and fully support the guy as his agent haha.

[muffdiver]

What the hell? TWO championship playoff games coming up Sunday and no posts here for 4 days.
I gotta take Packers +7 1/2 and Colts +7
How's everyone else picking?

[Three]

What the hell? TWO championship playoff games coming up Sunday and no posts here for 4 days.
I gotta take Packers +7 1/2 and Colts +7
How's everyone else picking?

I haven't looked too close at the matchups but my only thoughts so far was take the points. I wasn't sure which way the line would move so no early betting.

[muffdiver]

The opening lines haven't moved one iota for either game (going by my local newspaper).

[Exoter175]

What the hell? TWO championship playoff games coming up Sunday and no posts here for 4 days.
I gotta take Packers +7 1/2 and Colts +7
How's everyone else picking?

Well its slim pickings around this time of year, hehe. Made a good chunk of money on Ohio State the other night, but that's about it. Not a fan of any of the spreads or O/U's this week.

The opening lines haven't moved one iota for either game (going by my local newspaper).

I think I saw half a point on the New England game, and that was it.


If I was absolutely forced to take a pick this week, I'd take the over on IND@NE (54). That GB@SEA O/U is ugly and that spread worse. I suspect most people are going to go ATS on that game barring any ill news from the GB camp tomorrow.

[Three]

I expected to be in support of Muff's pick's of taking the points in both games. I don't like giving up a lot of points in pro games. You know any given Sunday and all that. Iwas a little surprised ow the end analysis worked out.

IND@NE: Peyton hasn't been Peyton for maybe 6 games especially last week against IND. Flacco and the Ravens made NE look bad despite not going away with a win. First thing was my score analysis with no other factors added. I got NE by 6 to 8 points. The totals were slightly favoring the Under and recent games strongly favoring the Under. Then I ran a recent form score analysis and got NE by 6 to 7 points. So far the lines are looking pretty on. I looked at games played head to head and against common opponents. After adjusting for looking at ATS MOV and adjusting raw scores for venue NE started looking like the stronger pick.

Then I look at matchups. The colts should struggle to play up to their average form on offense while the Pats should be able to produce as is expected of them. Then the big clincher was the injuries. You can never really trust the Patriot injury report so I didn't worry about the players tat would play. But with IND missing both starting CB's against Brady!! Now I am not sure about the depth of IND at CB but there are a few positions that tend to have a big impact on outcomes or are hard to have backups that are up to snuff. Obviously each team has superstars that are hard to replace but the positions are LT, C, CB, long snapper and kickers. Injury clusters are very important as well.

Now often with 2 great QB talents each team plans to run the ball more and eat the clock to limit the other teams elite QB field time. But with Brady against 2 backup CBs you know the game plan will be geared to set up exploiting any weakness that produces. If successful it should run up the score and increase IND passing game. This one looks to be a high scorer despite my initial score runs and NE winning and covering.



GB@SEA: Running the year to date scores on this one I get SEA by 6.5 to 10 points. Doing recent form scores I get SEA by 11. That was surprising right away and was at a borderline play. The head to head even made SEA look better but that was week 1 when teams are still trying to gel so that must be taken with a grain of salt or maybe the whole salt shaker. Common games made GB look better. Most had to be severely adjusted for venue but still favored GB.

Then I looked at the matchups. You have a great O in GB against a normally very stingy defense that is equally stingy giving up points. CAR had a big day last week for those that like yards but turned the ball over a lot and didn't get many points for all the offensive production. GB rarely turns the ball over and scores a lot at home but struggles to score on the road. Well you know I love big D to shut down big O and SEA's big D is at home in one of the toughest places for an opposing offense to visit. On the other side SEA has a veru interesting and tough to stop offense. They have one of the best rush attacks in the game against a team that doesn't do well against the run and failed to stop an equally potent rush last week.

But last week SEA did it passing which GB also failed to stop last week. GB relied upon a late offensive surge to beat DAL and depending on if you saw the stretching for the goal line on Dez Bryants attempt after catching the ball after taking 3 steps a football move would have needed even more offense to win and be playing this week. Well the refs on the field viewed the stretching for the goal line a football move as did I. The replay officials didn't see it the same way. Then you look at the toughest part of playing SEA, the SEA pass/Wilson run attack. SEA did it in the air last week against a very good defense of CAR. and of course Rodgers' injury is huge. If they give him what they gave him at halftime last week before the game they have a better chance. With another week to heal maybe he will be stronger but that type of injury heals slowly. Look for that more statuesque QB getting pressured against a much better SEA defense than GB faced last week. On the SEA side they have been getting healthier for a while and have dealt with many injury issues this year. I am not considering the SEA injuries much into this one.

In a lot of ways this is a tough one ti pick. Great O and great D is hard to tell which one will win. But to me I got to go with SEA on this one as much as I hate giving up a bunch of points. I will stick with the Under reluctantly. I think SEA D has been so hot combined with GB injury to Rodgers that I can be comfortable with GB not scoring much. SEA might go score happy but without the turnovers they got last week


Picks Conference championship:
1) NE -6.5 over IND
2) SEA -7 over GB
3) IND/NE Over 53.5

[Exoter175]

I expected to be in support of Muff's pick's of taking the points in both games. I don't like giving up a lot of points in pro games. You know any given Sunday and all that. Iwas a little surprised ow the end analysis worked out.

IND@NE: Peyton hasn't been Peyton for maybe 6 games especially last week against IND. Flacco and the Ravens made NE look bad despite not going away with a win. First thing was my score analysis with no other factors added. I got NE by 6 to 8 points. The totals were slightly favoring the Under and recent games strongly favoring the Under. Then I ran a recent form score analysis and got NE by 6 to 7 points. So far the lines are looking pretty on. I looked at games played head to head and against common opponents. After adjusting for looking at ATS MOV and adjusting raw scores for venue NE started looking like the stronger pick.

Then I look at matchups. The colts should struggle to play up to their average form on offense while the Pats should be able to produce as is expected of them. Then the big clincher was the injuries. You can never really trust the Patriot injury report so I didn't worry about the players tat would play. But with IND missing both starting CB's against Brady!! Now I am not sure about the depth of IND at CB but there are a few positions that tend to have a big impact on outcomes or are hard to have backups that are up to snuff. Obviously each team has superstars that are hard to replace but the positions are LT, C, CB, long snapper and kickers. Injury clusters are very important as well.

Now often with 2 great QB talents each team plans to run the ball more and eat the clock to limit the other teams elite QB field time. But with Brady against 2 backup CBs you know the game plan will be geared to set up exploiting any weakness that produces. If successful it should run up the score and increase IND passing game. This one looks to be a high scorer despite my initial score runs and NE winning and covering.

So, maybe you should play some fantasy football or something so you're more "up on the news" T3, because even I caught this fatal error on your "analysis" and had known for a whiiiiiile now, with it being confirmed this morning.

Vontae Davis - DB - Colts

The Indianapolis Star's Stephen Holder said both Colts RCB Vontae Davis (knee) and LCB Greg Toler (groin) will play in the AFC Championship Game.

"No ifs, ands or buts," Holder said, adding both were limited in Friday's practice "out of caution." Despite being listed as questionable, there was never any doubt both Toler and Davis would suit up against the Patriots.
Related: Greg Toler

Source: Stephen Holder on Twitter
Jan 17 - 8:56 AM

GB@SEA: Running the year to date scores on this one I get SEA by 6.5 to 10 points. Doing recent form scores I get SEA by 11. That was surprising right away and was at a borderline play. The head to head even made SEA look better but that was week 1 when teams are still trying to gel so that must be taken with a grain of salt or maybe the whole salt shaker. Common games made GB look better. Most had to be severely adjusted for venue but still favored GB.

Then I looked at the matchups. You have a great O in GB against a normally very stingy defense that is equally stingy giving up points. CAR had a big day last week for those that like yards but turned the ball over a lot and didn't get many points for all the offensive production. GB rarely turns the ball over and scores a lot at home but struggles to score on the road. Well you know I love big D to shut down big O and SEA's big D is at home in one of the toughest places for an opposing offense to visit. On the other side SEA has a veru interesting and tough to stop offense. They have one of the best rush attacks in the game against a team that doesn't do well against the run and failed to stop an equally potent rush last week.

But last week SEA did it passing which GB also failed to stop last week. GB relied upon a late offensive surge to beat DAL and depending on if you saw the stretching for the goal line on Dez Bryants attempt after catching the ball after taking 3 steps a football move would have needed even more offense to win and be playing this week. Well the refs on the field viewed the stretching for the goal line a football move as did I. The replay officials didn't see it the same way. Then you look at the toughest part of playing SEA, the SEA pass/Wilson run attack. SEA did it in the air last week against a very good defense of CAR. and of course Rodgers' injury is huge. If they give him what they gave him at halftime last week before the game they have a better chance. With another week to heal maybe he will be stronger but that type of injury heals slowly. Look for that more statuesque QB getting pressured against a much better SEA defense than GB faced last week. On the SEA side they have been getting healthier for a while and have dealt with many injury issues this year. I am not considering the SEA injuries much into this one.

In a lot of ways this is a tough one ti pick. Great O and great D is hard to tell which one will win. But to me I got to go with SEA on this one as much as I hate giving up a bunch of points. I will stick with the Under reluctantly. I think SEA D has been so hot combined with GB injury to Rodgers that I can be comfortable with GB not scoring much. SEA might go score happy but without the turnovers they got last week

Packers are 3-1 against teams with "above average" "mobile" QB's, their only loss coming in the home opener against........drumroll..........Seattle. You know what they say about rematch games. "throw everything you know out the window".

Lets narrow down the perspective here to what takes place.

Either A: Aaron Rodgers torches the Seattle D, which is totally possible and more prone to happening this year than last, or B: Seattle's Defense, backed by a solid effort in the run game by their offense, holds the Packers under 23 points and the Seahawks get a first class ticket to the big show where they'll get smoked by New England and the Bill Bellicheats.

I want Green Bay to win because my nearly year long pick of the 96 season rematch of the Patriots and Packers come to life. On top of that, despite the league loving the idea of a "back to back champ", there's a bigger "line" here to follow, which is a heroic Aaron Rodgers fighting off the Rainy City ***** Pigeons to go to the playoffs while on a hobbled leg, thus putting a crown atop the "Aaron Rodgers should be MVP this season" bandwagon. Its better for the NFL if this happens, despite the MILLIONS of bandwagon Seattle fans. At the end of the day, there's more Patriots/Packers fans both new and old rooting for that matchup. The NFL wants it, the NFL needs it, and just about everyone wants to see Brady v. Rodgers in a Super Bowl. Its the ultimate title fight. The "Field General" Brady vs. the "Heir Apparent" Rodgers.

That being said, unless we see broken play after broken play against the Seattle Defense, there's just no way that the Packers survive. Or is there? Every once in a blue moon the bookies and their cronies toss a curse on the "heavy favorite" going into the AFC/NFC Championship games. Unless going up against a total "cinderella story" type of affair, the "heavy favorite" of both games either gets beat, or has the toughest time covering the spread. Granted, there's no real math behind it, and its all smoke and mirrors and voodoo and science and robots, but you get the idea.

Here's where it gets a little weight this week. Admittedly, more than any other team (though this shouldn't be true but it is) the odds makers in charge have a higher value for Century Link's HFA than any other team's home venue (despite being only the 2nd loudest stadium in the NFL.......twice beaten by the Chiefs in that regard and the second time being a HUGE crushing of the 12th man mystery) and this week it accounts for 4 out of the 7.5 points of the spread by all accounts. Unfortunately for Seattle's sake, over the last 10 years of games in the NFL, they are pretty "far beyond" teams like the Patriots, Colts, Ravens, Steelers, and Packers for most home wins over that time, so it remains to be seen if there really is a "12th man" at century link. Certainly over the last few years, with a winning team, the crowd has impacted the game, and they most undoubtedly will again this week, but what happens if the ball bounces the other way and they find themselves trailing early and by a decent margin? Their advantage dissipates in magnitude, they won't focus on the run (aside from scrambling), they wont' be able to stop Eddie Lacy and Company on the ground when GB is up by 2 scores or more, they will literally force feed him the ball and just wear away at that Seattle Defense, even if its ineffective. There are few teams in the NFL who do this better, save for Kansas City and Pittsburgh, just pounding away at your interior linemen until something gives, and usually the thing that gives is a deep PAP or gimmick play that "goes yard" to truly break a game open. We saw this when Kansas City faced Seattle at arrowhead in week 11. Kansas City was fighting with Seattle in all three phases of the game, and ultimately dominated them on Special Teams, but even in a close/come from behind fashion as they did, they never abandoned the run and ultimately beat Seattle "between the tackles" with the 1-2 knock out punch of Charles and Davis. Offensively for the Seahawks, they did well. They ran all over the Chiefs on this day, but when it mattered the most (and with a ton of defensive injuries and starters missing) the Chiefs buckled down on 3rd and short and 4th and short situations to absolutely stymie the Seattle Rushing attack, and they eventually just ran them out of time. Green Bay is going to try this. They have a better offensive line than Kansas City, a better QB, a better group of linebackers on Defense (accounting for KC's injuries) and a fairly solid pass rush. Green Bay is far and beyond the most "complete" team in the NFC, and perhaps the most "complete" team in the NFL, though they'd eventually lose to Brady and company.

It feels like Seattle is going to win, but the on paper vs. "tape test" don't match up for seattle in this one. Just about anyone who likes money is keeping their hands off this game because it has the potential to be upset-city this week.

[Three]

Well the one thing I missed was the weather. I always check the weather but failed to before betting because when oddshark had the injury report on Friday evening I wanted to get my bet on that game before the line moved. The line didn't really move much. Oh well. Both games will be somewhat windy and wet. SEA is used to this and thrives on it. It is the more likely weather in SEA. Brady doesn't always through a tight spiral so exploiting the injuries at CB may be a little tougher in the wind.

The wet doesn't worry my Over because it favors the offense since they don't have to react (it may cause more running plays which does affect the total) but the wind does tend to shave some points off the total. Hopefully the fact that I tease totals except that rare exception in the correlated parlay will make the Over safe, for my net anyway. Brady is more used to the windy conditions typical late in the year in Foxboro than Luck, who plays in a dome. the wet may make throwing that tight spiral tougher for all 4 teams. Combine that with the wind which isn't forecast to be that strong but strong enough to affect a wobbly longish pass.

Brady has always been a short to mid-range pass thrower anyway so the conditions may play right into his wheel house. Brady may be a great long passer but we never really get to see it because the best game plan for the team only includes that to keep the D-backs honest. I doubt we will see much of it today. Some make the mistake of assuming a player can't do something because they rarely do it. Many times their best game plan is not to do it unless it is necessary and if the game plan works it is not necessary so you just rarely see it. Then the ones that tink a player can't do it are amazed at the execution when he and his team is asked to do it by the way the game plan fell short of success.

SEA giving up points in these conditions I am comfortable with. The conditions really favor Brady so I am comfortable with the NE pick. It is the Over that might fall short but I still like the pick. had I checked the weather as I always do I might not have picked it. I probably would have still used it in a teaser but it would most likely not have been a pick.

Good luck to everyone who bet this week. Good luck to your Packers Muff. I now we had a Pats fan in what used to be common posters on this thread series for so many years so good luck to you. I would name you but my memory of who it was is to fuzzy. I might get it wrong.

[Gamblor]

NE -7 vs Indy - a good match up for NE
Indy vs NE under 52.5 - shootouts not too common playoff time

[Math Demon]

NFC Championship - GB @ SEA:

Seahawks win!

How sweet it is.

[Three]

Wow, sorry muff. They will be talking about that comeback for years. GB looked so good and SEA looked so unbelievably bad in the first half. My pick failed but I won the first leg of my teaser. Now we will see if the total comes in Over 47.5 for IND/NE. I am glad I dropped the notion of the Under for GB/SEA. I still would be a leg up on my teaser but would have a loss for SEA ATS. I am glad the 7 point line had the high vig because that is what made that pick be the other part of the Over teaser. I got a better line and the vig disappeared in the teaser.

[Exoter175]

Well the one thing I missed was the weather. I always check the weather but failed to before betting because when oddshark had the injury report on Friday evening I wanted to get my bet on that game before the line moved. The line didn't really move much. Oh well. Both games will be somewhat windy and wet. SEA is used to this and thrives on it. It is the more likely weather in SEA. Brady doesn't always through a tight spiral so exploiting the injuries at CB may be a little tougher in the wind.

/facepalm

No, the thing you missed was that Toler and Davis would play in this game, as suspected all week long, and verified Saturday MORNING In the post I quoted. There is NO "exploiting injuries at CB". Both Toler and Davis are fine, and they were being held back in practice so that they were "full bore" to face the Patriots.

L2FFLUPDATES

[Three]

It looks like the Oddshark injury report was wrong (I double checked it after I saw Davis in the game). It may be better for the Pats though. Sometimes players playing injured are not as good as their backups. That is the last time I don't double check their stats. They bit me before on another type of stat but how do you screw up the injury report?