Sharky's NFL play of the week

[Three]

Week 8:
1) Ravens +2.5 over BENGALS
2) Bills +3 over JETS
3) SEA/CAR over 44.5
4) Colts -2.5 over STEELERS

Results for 2014 season:
Week 4: 5-2-0
Week 5: 2-1-0
Week 6: 2-4-0
Week 7: 4-2-1
Season: 13-9-1

After viewing Thursdays injury report and I am dropping the SD +9 and the Vikings +3. You don't want to face DEN with most of you D secondary out. I will replace it with Bal +2.5. The Bengals are so beat up right now. The would be best off not putting Green in harms way against a physical team like the Ravens. They may play him but I don't think it will matter so why risk it.

[Exoter175]

Continuing using the grading system without having the right grades week 5 games flagged above:
1) Seattle -4 over CAR
2) Ravens +2.5 over BENGALS
3) Rams +7 over CHIEFS
4) BROWNS -7 over Raiders
5) redskins +10 over COWBOYS

Week 1: 2-4-1
Week 2: 1-1-0
Week 3: 2-4-0
week 4: 2-3-0
Week 5: 3-0-0
Week 6: 0-2-0
Week 7: 2-1-0
Season: 12-15-1

Yeah, that's probably going to be a bad game right there to predict, given the "governors cup" rivalry, and the massive homefield advantage the Chiefs will have here with the lopsided in-state rivalry.

[Three]

Week 8:
1) Ravens +2.5 over BENGALS
2) Bills +3 over JETS
3) SEA/CAR over 44.5
4) Colts -2.5 over STEELERS

Results for 2014 season:
Week 4: 5-2-0
Week 5: 2-1-0
Week 6: 2-4-0
Week 7: 4-2-1
Season: 13-9-1

After viewing Thursdays injury report and I am dropping the SD +9 and the Vikings +3. You don't want to face DEN with most of you D secondary out. I will replace it with Bal +2.5. The Bengals are so beat up right now. The would be best off not putting Green in harms way against a physical team like the Ravens. They may play him but I don't think it will matter so why risk it.

Changes after the injury report and a feel for what to expect in tomorrows injury report.

[Exoter175]

You notice it didn't make my picks.
CIN -1 was tempting but if Green is out CIN is toast. The pickings were pretty slim this week. I like SD over DEN with 9 points. Indy -2.5 over PIT was good but the rest of my picks are borderline. I like the over but that is not my speciality.

I basically try to avoid most of the AFC West and AFC North on my picks if I can. Its hard to pick a clear cut winner year after year between Cincy, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh. And in the West, you've got the hottest offense in the league competing against some super tough divisional competition. In which the West has literally the most efficient division for QB play, and two of the best pass rush teams as well. Those two combined make for EXTREMELY hard to pick games lol.

[Sharky]

At HOME SWEET HOME they have won 13 straight prime time games and 19 straight under their current coach (sans his 2012 suspension)….who dat’?...dat’ be da NAWLINS SAINTS…who face a very hot Green Bay Packer team and MVP candidate Rodgers who is making it look easy during their current 4 game winning streak with 13 of his 18 TD passes and ZERO interceptions …take NEW ORLEANS -1 for a BIG EZ win this week.

GOOD LUCK!

Sharky

Last week: 1-0
Season: 4-4

[Exoter175]

At HOME SWEET HOME they have won 13 straight prime time games and 19 straight under their current coach (sans his 2012 suspension)….who dat’?...dat’ be da NAWLINS SAINTS…who face a very hot Green Bay Packer team and MVP candidate Rodgers who is making it look easy during their current 4 game winning streak with 13 of his 18 TD passes and ZERO interceptions …take NEW ORLEANS -1 for a BIG EZ win this week.

GOOD LUCK!

Sharky

Last week: 1-0
Season: 4-4

New Orleans is going to get SMOKED this week.

Rodgers is carrying a 105.8 Passer rating on his road games, with half of his 18 touchdowns split Home and Away. When he's forced to throw the ball more than 30 times a game, he gets on fire, as his attempts pas the 30th have a QB Rating of 133.6.

The only thing slowing him up from a blowout win this week against a "dead in the water" saints team, is the turf, where he statistically puts up "human" numbers. Expect a close first half followed by a second half saints collapse, at home.

[Exoter175]

NO has a very strong home field advantage. They are a different team indoors and at home. I have NO winning by or 4. The only bet that looked good was te under but I scrapped that due to the lopsided injuries. GB is pretty healthy I would stay away from this one. NO has had success running the ball this year but with their top rusher and the third rusher that almost splits the rest of the runs as well as the center not participating in practice.GB has been soft against the run but tough against the pass this year. Often a backup center playing can have a big impact on the game. Especially long snappers and teams that favor the shotgun. The center handles the ball on every offensive play. This afternoons injury report will shed more light on who will play.

NO has passed the ball 63.7% of their plays this year for 72.8% of their total yardage but still average 123 yards/game rushing. Now NO is a tail of two teams. One at home or indoors and the other outside. Indoors in ATL they scored 34 points in a losing effort and 20 and 37 (OT) at home against MIN and TB respectively. Not exactly stout competition but TB has a good pass D. In other games you have Dallas's retractable dome where they scored 17 points. And in outdoor stadiums they scored 24 in CLE and 23 in DET. Saints have won every home game (two easy games) and lost every road game this year.

Margins are to small and with injuries raising variance I would stay away from this one. The only road blowout was the Cowboy game. The rest were decided by 3, 2 and 1 points chronologically against competitive teams. GB has struggled on the road this year but won their last 2 of their 4 road games beating CHI decisively and MIA by 3 points in a close one where they enjoyed a +3 turnover advantage in the game. Now GB is great at not turning the ball over (3 INT and 2 offensive fumbles) and NO is not good at getting takeaways (3 INT and 2 fumbles) in contrast to NO who turn the ball over more (7 INT and 2 fumbles) against an aggressive GB D getting 10 INT and 3 fumbles this year.GB has played 7 games and NO has played 6. IF this trend continues in the game you have to give the advantage to GB. But like I said the margins seem to close for me to bet either side. It should be a good game.

Home teams will always play well at home in a dome, there's a pretty hard statistic for that number there. However, you look at the SoS, The points and Turnover differential, and you can see why I'm calling this game for the Packers against the spread. New Orleans has not been able to successfully put away any "talented" team this year.

New Orleans' only two wins came against THE WORST teams of their respective divisions. And the only team they have faced at the "top" of their division (like Green Bay) smoked them by 21 points (Bowboys).

This game's going to go into halftime something close to 17-14 in favor of the Packers, and then the rout begins. Not many teams are good ATS picks (not like Kansas City at least), but this is absolutely one of those games where I'd be comfortable betting against the spread.

One thing I wouldn't touch is the over/under. This has the makings to be both a 31 point game, and a 95 point game lol.

[Gamblor]

NE -5.5 vs Chi - STONE COLD LOCK OF THE CENTURY OF THE WEEK! - Chicago is almost in dissarray, can't get their act together (that pretty much describes them in the Cutler era). Very few opportunities to get NE at less than -7 at home.
Buf +3 vs NYJ - Buffalo is the outright better better team. Geno Smith is basically good for 10 pts for Buf. Harvins, meh, he has his explosive games, but dissapears 75% of the time, got to like the odds.
CAR +6 vs Sea - Cam is getting healthier each weak. Too many players payed off for Seattle, not the same team as last year. Don't really have the leadership or coaching to keep doing what they did last year for another year. At the beginning of the year, feared a crazy unstoppable Wilson/Lynch/Harvins pistol option jet sweep play action offense, but thats not happening.
ARI -1.5 vs Phi - In general, small market teams get little respect, and big NE market teams get too much respect. By the numbers, line should be -3.

[Gamblor]

One more:

Bal -2 vs CIN - Injured AJ Green, looks like Baltimore is giving Will Hill decent reps. A kind of unknown player, he was a top 10 safety last year. Good in coverage, good tackler, and hard hitter, makes a huge difference on a defense.

[Exoter175]

Looks like a lot of us are going to be wrong this week about some of those picks haha.

[Sharky]

New Orleans is going to get SMOKED this week...

precisely why I am Sharky and you are not

[Exoter175]

precisely why I am Sharky and you are not

LOL please

[Sharky]

At the ½ way point, one thing is clear…the NY J-E-T-S are the worst “team” in football… “team” includes the whole enchilada (coach, GM, players, locker room, off field antics, focus, preparation, etc) …currently riding a 7 game losing streak after beating another poor team, the Raiders, at home in the opener by 5...of the 4 teams with 1, or zero wins (TB, Oak, Jax,) they are the only one without a new coach and QB…actually they may have a new coach soon (Rex surely won’t be unemployed for long though)… and “it’s over, Johnny” (Idsick)… they face a KANSA CITY team this week that is playing at a very high level (4-1, 169 pts to 78 over last 5 games)…at tough Arrowhead stadium no less …in a rout, take the CHIEFS -9.5 going away

GOOD LUCK!

Sharky

Last week: 1-0
Season: 5-4