Absolutely, positively, unequivocally no mathematical +ev in sports bettingOriginally Posted by hitthat16
Guess that answers my question! Haha.
I guess I lied about never betting on sports. I remembered I'm in a paid fantasy football league this year. I'd say it's neutral EV because we are all at generally the same skill level and there is no "juice" taken.
MIA -1 vs sd - Travel. Miami is kind of an underrated team that teams sleep against. Rivers goes on these long streaks where he looks good, then bad, then good... Looks like he's in his bad phase.
stl +11 vs SF - Lot of points for a STL team that tends to get into slug it out low scoring affairs, and STL plays their NFC West rivals closely. Vengeance for blowout.
PIT PK vs Bal - Pit vs Bal should just default to -3 for the home team. Weakest of the 3 picks.
At the halfway mark, 17-15-3. 2-1 Stone Cold Locks.
Last edited by Gamblor; 11-02-2014 at 09:19 AM.
Timidity is dangerous: Better to enter with boldness. Any mistakes you commit through audacity are easily corrected with more audacity.
1. They might not face each other on the field, but they are certainly facing the results of the other, on the field. If Manning turns it over, there's more "Fire" in Brady to go and score on it, and likely a better opportunity in terms of morale. Likewise, if Brady goes and scores after a Manning Turnover, there's more pressure on Manning the next time to go out and score to make up for the gap. This is why the common buzzword for this game is "chess match" because of some of the choices an interactions these guys make that raises and lowers the pressures on the individual to perform in these games, which leads me to my next point.
2. If you comb through the statistics of every Brady vs. Manning bowl there's ever been, you're going to find out that not only are there far more interceptions thrown in these games, leading to more "unexpected" points as you call them (hello, Ty Law vs. Peyton Manning), but the scoring tends to be higher because of a lot of these unexpected points, as well as the "heightened" level of play that these guys tend to produce (Branch, Moss vs. Colts).
I get your point that if these things wouldn't have happened, the "takeaway" of the points shows that the game is much closer, but in all honesty, wouldn't have changed the scoring outcome all that much, these games have a higher scoring standard than any "common" game because of the propensity for these guys to abandon the run and go pass heavy to compete. Passing = Scoring in this league, name me a time where they combined for less than 65 attempts in this type of game, and then tell me how many times they combined for 80+.
You'd be surprised by the statistics. I'm not saying you're wrong so much for the pick, but wrong for omitting some of the results of prior games from "different" teams.
T3, I didn't bring up Ty Law to make a historically representative point of each and every matchup, I brought it up because like the Brady Vs. Manning matchup, the Ty Law vs. Manning matchup, one where they actually get to play on the field at the same time (which is why I brought this up since you mentioned it earlier) has been another of the matchups in league history where Peyton Manning looks middling as a Quarterback when throwing in Ty Law's direction, especially in the playoffs.
The point here, that you seem to not be able to acknowledge, is that you picked this game for the under because you threw out a TON of stats on this matchup that would have helped you, and chose only to focus on the most recent years of the Brady vs. Manning matchups, the years in which Tom Brady had fewer receiving threats, a weaker defense, and the Broncos went full tilt on acquiring players to get them a super bowl before Peyton can no longer throw the ball. You literally looked at the stats from what many considered to be "anomaly" games in this historic matchup, and threw the rest of the matchups out, because Brady is no longer with the Colts, but with the Broncos, like that even mattered offensively, since Peyton is like having an extra Offensive Coordinator on the field. Do you know why the Broncos don't have a big name offensive coordinator on the team? Because Peyton has discretion over what happens on the field, and John Fox allows it.
As for you continuing to turn to "unexpected" points, how many punt, kick, and defensive returns were made this last week for touchdowns? How many blocked punts, blocked kicks, and safeties?
You might consider those "unexpected" points, but if they happen every single week of the NFL, and to just about every team at some point in the season, sometimes multiple times, how can you consider them to be unexpected?
And as for gronk being taken with a grain of salt, that's a joke, you're taking that one with a shot of tequila, a lime, some kleenex, and a pound of salt, he's half their receiving corps when healthy, and their only logical redzone threat, which is why the Patriots had to hing on Edelman so much last year.
Yeah, Brady was afraid to throw the ball anywhere near Ed Reed. He had horrible stats against the Ravens. It is pretty easy to defend a QB he he automatically eliminates half the field when throwing the ball. Brady admitted it on more than one occasion. He said, I look to see where Reed is and then I throw the ball elsewhere.
Factoring in the fact that Denver went all in to field a great defense before Peyton retired so they could not just get to a SB but win one and the improvement in the Pats defense were considered and called for a lowering of scoring in a score prediction. You keep assuming I am not looking at things but any pick I pull and then put back up was looked at in great detail. The fact I pulled it means it probably isn't a strong pick but putting it back up means I looked at it from every angle and it panned out.
You need to reread my post. I tried to say take that years red zone stats with a grain of salt because Gronk was out or hurt most of the year. The point was with Gronk in as he is now that stat is not very useful. That is the kind of detail I look at stats with. I clearly stated that. The fact that you didn't understand shows you don't know what stats are applicable and what stats need a big grain of salt when looking at a play. I think we beat this horse to death. If you want to have the last word have at it. I doubt I will reply.
Its not that I didn't read your post about factoring details in or out in regards to Gronk, but you keep weighting certain statistics higher, while tossing much more important statistics out. The fact alone that you took the previous 12 match ups out of the equation for factoring your score almost negates the entirety of your equation for a game like this, yet you're hassling me about semantics and playing the "last word" card.
You could literally throw any bit of statistics that you wish at me, and in the hypothetical world, I'm sure they are absolutely on point, but the second you negate any matchup from previous encounters between Brady and Manning, you're going to lose any argument, or credibility of argument, then and there.
KANSAS CITY enters week 10 on a roll, having won 3 straight and 5 of their last 6 while outscoring opponents 173 to 88…this streak includes wins against AFC LEast foes NE, Miami & the Jets…2 of their 3 losses have come on the road @ Denver and @ San Fran…with RBs Fred Jackson (Quest) and CJ Spiller (IR) hurt, they have turned to Anthony Dixon who is averaging a career high 3.7 yard/game…the CHIEFS stout D (5th ranked, in total yards allowed) should contain Dixon and force them to pass….if you are 1 dimensional, Kyle Orton would not be the choice to face the #1 ranked pass defense…the Bills are a deck of cards, KANSAS CITY is legit….get out your brooms and take the CHIEFS -2 to complete the sweep of the division.
GOOD LUCK!
Sharky
Last week: 1-0
Season: 6-4
it is peculiar to me why so many aren't sold on KC as they are a team that, after a poor opening game loss against the Titans at home, have only lost on the road to Denver and the 49ers - 2 very talented teams...you keep selling KC, and we'll keep buying them
as for your pick, that game is priced exactly where I expected, so there is no value play in that game to me...after the halfway point, picking a 3-9 team (or any team with <=3 wins) against the team with the best record in the NFL (7-1) at home...GOOD LUCK!
Sharky
Here's the thing, I'm a huge Chiefs fan, have been all my life, so I've been through all the ups and downs for quite some time now, and I believe the team is good, even with all of the injuries plaguing the team, but I wouldn't yet call us "legit". Even though we've beaten some of the best teams in football, we still have to face some of the best teams in football, including a road game against Arizona, and its going to be games like that, that will solidify our "legitness". I like the pick though, since I"m liable to pick the Chiefs 16 weeks out of the year.
You might "disagree" with it, but that doesn't make you right for reducing your entire sample size to something so small the statistic itself is basically unusable. I like to win, so I take a lot of things into account, like you do, but we apparently differ on what "should" matter, like the past 12 matchups vs. the weather. lol. But hey, we won't agree on that because you sample things from a statistical formula, I model them after what I "see". And I've seen Brady put up 50+ points in a windy, snow packed day. I've seen him beat teams by 30+ almost every year in windy, snow packed days. So I don't consider weather nearly as big of a factor for that specific matchup (Brady vs. Manning) as I would in a Baltimore vs. Pittsburgh type matchup where the weather is almost entirely the biggest affecting variable.
As for my picks, I've never really been one to post with consistency, but if you'd like, I guess we can start?? I'm not nearly as solid on the spread picks as I am on the over/under though, part of that is because I'm a Chiefs fan I'd think :P
I'm sold on them being good, just not sold on them being nearly as "legit" as Sharky things. Most of that is my hesitance to allow myself to think MY team is as good as I feel they can be, so I can limit my disappointment when we miss the playoffs this year by 1 game unless we can actually beat Denver this year.
This, I don't think the Cardinals are nearly as good as their record reflects, especially with the blunders in their division where teams like the Seahawks and Niners are playing so badly, despite my Chiefs shooting themselves in the foot to give the Niners a W. Arizona has and will play in a lot of close matchups this year, and they are going to get into the playoffs with one of the best records in football, but they are going to get hit hard in the mouth by the AFC if they can even get that far into the playoffs and avoid the Eagles, Lions, and Packers, who should all just murder the Cardinals in January.
The Rams are a total fluke team. They have nothing to play for, their Franchise QB is on IR, they keep rotating RB's left and right and can't commit to what was their franchise RB. Their talented WR pool from the past draft has done all but nothing for them until these last two weeks, and their defense front has been mauled repeatedly by inferior offensive lines (KC vs. STL as an example). You literally cannot take a single Rams game this year without serious risk to what Tthree will call unexpected points, of which are almost completely expected in every Rams game, regardless of which team scores them, especially with Jeff Fisher as their head coach.
I would LOVE to take the Rams in this game against the Cardinals, partly because its time for the Cardinals to show some weakness, partly because its a divisional game, party because its about that time for the Rams offense to wake up and start taking shots at people.
I wouldn't say I'd take a team in either game this week, KC@Buf or STL@Ari
Brady does well in the wind because his typical game plan is what another QB or offensive coordinator would do to compensate for a windy day. People seem to assume Brady is some kind of deep treat. He may have that ability but his typical game is focused around short high percentage passes. He throws longer passes to keep the defense honest so they can't key on the shorter passes. I knew that going in but Peyton likes to throw deeper and would need to adjust to the conditions to be successful which he didn't. Despite completing more passes than in any other game this year and gaining over 400 yards passing for the second time this year, Manning had a very bad day. The fewest TD,s and most interceptions this season. He threw 40% of his INT this season in this game and the other 60% in the preceding 7 games. His worst QB rating of the season of 80.9, only the second time his rating was less than 110 this season. Manning has faced much better pass defenses than NE's pass defense but performed effectively. His interceptions didn't even take points off the board for DEN as is often the case with INT's. They gave the Pats 14 easy points.
You have to give Brady credit. Although his usual game plan fit the conditions perfectly he executed well against a greatly improved DEN pass defense. High scoring teams will give up a lot of passing yards. This is what Dan Gordon calls a phony win. Denver gained more net yards/pass 7.4 versus the Pats 6.15 and Denver committed more turnovers yet NE won. First downs, 3rd down efficiency, penalty yardage, red zone efficiency and time of possession was almost identical for both teams. Den gained about 20% more yards and threw 1 more INT. The punt return for a TD and the result of the 2 DEN INT make a very even game between the two teams into a rout. A look at the game stats with no reference to score and you would think DEN won the game. What does that tell you? That the Pats score should have been close to the Broncos score of 21. I guess you really have to give the Pats D credit. They allowed a boatload of yardage but generally kept the Broncos out of the red zone. They got the Pats O an opportunity for 2 easy TDS. In a game Brady should have lost or at least been a field goal difference game the bend but don't break defense made it a rout. Brady and the offense did their part by getting the 2 easy TDs when the chance was presented to them.
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