Originally Posted by Tthree
Now I see where you're coming from. Thanks Tthree!
Now if DET can just improve from scoring 2 FGs (vs ARZ) then 3 FGs (vs NE) then to 4 FGs (vs CHI) this Thursday.
Computer picks have DET scoring 20 points. I was thinking: "What! 6 FGs and a safety?"
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To NFL newbies: Please perform your own analysis. Confirm any stats presented. Draw your own conclusions.
Handicapping is EXTREMELY hard! All statistical evidence (and game insights) may indicate strongly a specific outcome, winner, or continuing trend; but a turn-over, a missed field goal, an erroneous call, a key injury, etc. can easily change the outcome, the margins, and/or the totals. Division rivalry games and games with playoff implications are highly unpredictable.
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AZ has a great D. NE has a pretty good D that gives up garbage stats. CHI D has been beat up pretty good. Injury clusters in their D. Even if they were good most teams don't have the depth to survive injury clusters. Now you can add LB Briggs and DB Fuller to the injury list. A great player excelling may have as much to do with good players around them as it is to their ability. With no good D players to account for the great player gets extra attention. Don't be surprised if you see some TDs from DET this week. DET is a passing team and CHI has not faired well against the pass this year.
1. It isn't trolling, I'm just reiterating the point that if you KNOW something is wrong with that system, why use it? You think his "idea" behind it is right, but his rankings are "wrong", doesn't that render the entire system useless in the first place since those rankings are dependent on the system? And how does he actually letter grade the system? Simple mathematical algorithm of contract salaries in vs. out? Madden rankings? I mean, really, what is the exact basis (without a novel) for the F- vs. the D+ in those letter grades?
2. That goes back, again, to the question of why use them and why post them here on the forum, if you know they are wrong? Here's an addition to that. We are now 11 games deep into the season, new starters have emerged, injuries have been had, why would you take a pre-season ranking of a team based on a letter grade, and match them to a team now? THat's the most ridiculous thing I've ever heard, you'd have the Falcons and Saints as two of the best teams in the NFC while the Chiefs, Ravens, and Bengals would have to be some of the worst.......
3. I'm not twisting your words at all. You CLEARLY stated it and I CLEARLY quoted it. If you want to claim one thing to suit your argument today, and then skew it a little to fit your argument tomorrow, that's fine. But don't sit here and tell me you're an ATS man, and then claim not to be one when I hammer you over your idiotic letter graded system that you keep posting here that is clearly outdated, misinformed, and flat out "wrong" about 90% of the teams in this league.
You think I'm trolling, but actually I'm more "upset" that you'd keep posting that nonsense week after week. There might be people on this forum that respect you as much as I do, that don't know any better about sports betting, but see you post that rubbish and actually make a bet based on what you posted, without reading in depth like the rest of us have.
And that's where you have the biggest disadvantage. If your eye is on the bottom line of the box scores, you're going in the wrong direction with your analysis.
How in the hell is Rodgers a bargain? Rodgers signed a 5/110 deal, Cutler signed a 7/126 deal. That's a HUGE difference in a teams' ability to manage cap space year after year.
Cutler is one hell of a productive quarterback, and neither Cutler nor Stafford are "grossly" overpaid.
Rodgers might be one of the best QB's in the league, but he's also commanding the highest average salary.
The upside for Stafford in this case, is that he's still in his mid 20's as a QB and has his best years ahead of him, historically speaking.
How in the hell is Rodgers a bargain? Rodgers signed a 5/110 deal, Cutler signed a 7/126 deal. That's a HUGE difference in a teams' ability to manage cap space year after year.
Cutler is one hell of a productive quarterback, and neither Cutler nor Stafford are "grossly" overpaid.
Rodgers might be one of the best QB's in the league, but he's also commanding the highest average salary.
The upside for Stafford in this case, is that he's still in his mid 20's as a QB and has his best years ahead of him, historically speaking.[/QUOTE]
How is Rodgers a bargain? Let's start with his 30 TD passes vs. just 3 Ints. Then we could go to the fact that he holds the highest lifetime QB rating of alltime.
If salary was based on stats alone, Rodgers would be making 25X more than Cutler (tell Bears fans how productive he's been) and 10X more than Stafford. Check it out.
Since when is the "worth" of a salary determined by statistics alone?
By that metric, Tom Brady is the biggest bargain in the NFL, as he has 3 times the super bowl wins Rodgers has, at something like 8 million per year cheaper than Rodgers. That equates to the average salaries of two starting offensive linemen in the NFL.
Of course, if all you are concerned about is a QB's statistics, and not his wins, then I'm sure you view Rodgers as the single greatest QB in the NFL, of which I assure you he is not.
Both QB's are "winning" QB's, and neither, by NFL metrics, is overpaid according to the league. Is Rodgers a bargain COMPARED to cutler? Debatable, but is Rodgers a bargain compared to the rest of the league? Absolutely not.
The starting QB's with current winning percentages higher than Rodgers; Brady, Wilson, Kaepernick, Manning, Roethlisberger, and Hoyer. Within 1/100th of a percentage point, Luck and Flacco. Within 5 100ths of a percentage point? Rivers and Foles.
Brady has 5 super bowl starts, Manning and Roethlisberger have 3 a piece, even Eli Manning has 2 super bowl starts with 2 super bowl wins!
Lets relax on what we call a "bargain", the next 3-4 years of that team are going to be crippled by the way they adjusted his contract, and without John Dorsey (now with the Chiefs) to fix it for them.
The true bargain of the NFL, is getting the most winning active QB in the NFL for 5-6 mil/year cheaper than the average.
2-3 last week in a tough week for picks, this week is definitely more interesting. 26-22-3 this year.
SF PK vs Sea - Thanksgiving special. Strong/strongish pick. Im sure SF is tired of Seattle's yappin' and success.
Will have more picks for Sunday, sure everyone is waiting with bated breath.
Timidity is dangerous: Better to enter with boldness. Any mistakes you commit through audacity are easily corrected with more audacity.
One more before the line moves too much on this:
Was +10 vs IND - Colt McCoy baby! As long as its not Bob Griffin or Cousins.
Timidity is dangerous: Better to enter with boldness. Any mistakes you commit through audacity are easily corrected with more audacity.
You don't even read a post thoroughly before you spout off. Reread my unedited post 201 an you'll see that I said "if" salary was based on stats. Then you use "winning percentage" as the ultimate measuring stick for QBs. What kind of winning percentages would Wilson, Kaepernick, etc. have without the defenses fielded by their respective teams? Best QBs can't win a lot of games if the rest of the team is weak which the Packers defense has been since their last SB win (2010-2011). Then you talk about QBs having more SB wins. How many years have Manning, Brady, Roethlisburger, etc. played compared to Rodgers?
You're also wrong about his contract crippling the team. Ted Thompson is one of the sharpest GMs in the game. The contract will be restructured when/if the need arises.
Lastly, since you're such a know it all expert------------please tell me who the best QB in the game is at present so I can replace Rodgers with him!
I have no opinion on the game, so I do NOT agree or disagree with your pick of WAS + 10 vs IND.
Just a reminder, though, that IND is 8-3 ATS. The three (3) non-covers (ALL losses) were against potential playoff participants, NE (9-2), PHI (8-3), and PIT (7-4). Sub-par teams JAX (1-10) twice, TEN (2-9), NYG (3-8) and CIN (7-3-1) were demolished with scores: IND 44, JAX 17; IND 41, TEN 17; IND 40, NYG 24; IND 23, JAX 3; IND 27, CIN 0.
On the other hand, McCoy, I believe, is 2-0 in two starts this season. Will WAS (3-8) break the trend?
Last edited by Math Demon; 11-26-2014 at 01:02 PM. Reason: Forgot: IND 27, CIN 0
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To NFL newbies: Please perform your own analysis. Confirm any stats presented. Draw your own conclusions.
Handicapping is EXTREMELY hard! All statistical evidence (and game insights) may indicate strongly a specific outcome, winner, or continuing trend; but a turn-over, a missed field goal, an erroneous call, a key injury, etc. can easily change the outcome, the margins, and/or the totals. Division rivalry games and games with playoff implications are highly unpredictable.
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I feel like banging my head against the wall. I think I have told you at least 8 times I am not using it. Since I started posting it I have made that clear and I have not once said I do use it but you just keep assuming I do even when my picks go against them more than with them. How is this not trolling? I will explain this one more time as I have explained it almost a dozen times already but you just refuse to listen to anything. The system is based on how a team's 52 ma roster at the end of the post season compares to the team it fielded last year. There were weaknesses that needed to be addressed. Did they improve, stay the same or get worse. There were platers to resign. Did they retain players and if not how does the replacement stack up against the former player. How deep are they at all positions compared to last year. The ranking s I am using are for the start of the preseason because try as I did I couldn't find any for the 52 man roster improvement. It is basically how free agent signings and the draft did at plugging the teams holes and needs from last season. Preseason injuries and cuts and anything about the preseason are NOT a part of the rankings I could get. NOBODY IS USING THIS SO STFU AND UNDERSTAND WHAT IS BEING SAID. I know that you really really are bad at that by how horribly you have done on getting anything explained to you in this thread.
It is about the public and the books tending to bet and set lines by last years perceptions. When this years team is vastly different by both sides in the game in opposite directions the line tends to be off. Every talented handicapper knows to look for these types of situations and this rating system is designed to flag them for a closer look. I explained that at least a half dozen times already but you just want to post things that you know are wrong just to get a reaction. Either that or you have no ability to comprehend any sort of communication. I would insult you by saying you are stupid so you must be trolling. That is the only way you could continually post that you don't understand something that was explained in great detail so many times. Of course maybe you are stupid but I don't believe that.
I said I prefer to find value ATS. Value is wherever you find it. I wish it would always be against the spread but more often than not the good lines pay crappy odds so there is no value in the good ATS numbers and the bad lines have no value to begin with even with good odds. Fortunately you can do something to get value where ATS bets don't have any. That is why I bet teasers so much. A lot of value in a line is about the number based on the frequencies of MOV in the NFL. The difference between 3 and 3.5 and 2.5 is huge compared to the difference between 7.5 and 9.5. Some numbers I pretty much always tease. -6.5 to -8.5 are very valuable teaser lines. +1.5 to +3 are very valuable lines when teased. Then I tease crappy odds with a good number and almost all O/U bets. Like I said there is an archival thread on this site with every bet I made last year after a similar idiot questioned the way I used my picks. ATS bets have the least variance so I prefer them. That doesn't mean they are even close to my most common bet. Just check my bet history for last year. My picks didn't do that well but my betting results went almost contrary to my picks. I had my worst weeks when my picks weren't that bad and some of my best weeks when the picks missed but not by much. I would love it if all the value was in ATS picks but unfortunately I don't see ithe value there most of the time. It is like in BJ you would love to get a BJ every time. There would be little variance. Non if you insured. But that just isn't hoe it works. Your best plays may be doubles and sometimes splits and they are high variance plays.
Then they have a reading comprehension problem as well.
I looked at all the info in the box scores and the matchups going into the game and took my best educated guess. I would be surprised if I nailed it 100% but figure a fair percentage was right. I could have been totally wrong. I did not see the game. There was a couple more assumptions I could have made from all the stats in the box scores . I thought they were getting to iffy. Every aspect of the game was listed. I just didn't have a half or quarterly breakdown of how game plan's changed for both teams as the game unfolded. I had to guess at how the score changes affected them..
Don't you think Rogers is worth it? He is pretty durable despite missing enough of the late season last year to pretty much kill GB playoff hopes. He is probably the best QB in the league. If you want to quibble over who is best, as if that matters in this conversation, Most everyone would have him in their top 3 QBs. Many teams try to build a team around D and a well rounded ball control offense. This formula is probably the one that turns out the strongest team when it works but it is hard to find a QB humble enough not to get in the way of this model by trying to put up big stats. With this model the QB has a simple job. Get some first downs, eat the clock and don't turn the ball over and in the event he is asked to put up the numbers to come from behind to win the game. That means lots of short passes that can't be intercepted and handing the ball off a lot. Most QB's just won't do that when asked. Brady has made a staple of the short pass but most QBs don't want to throw short. You get a team like KC and the QB should be throwing short. Alex Smith gets it and KC is close to being one of those teams with a great shot at winning the SB. Many times it is just a matter of your team staying healthy or having the depth to deal with injuries as they come. The trouble is once you win the SB everyone wants a big payday. That can make it hard to do the cap dance and be a SB threat the following season(s). Seattle got lucky with Wilson being so young that he is still a bargain. But lots of veterans got big contracts.
Didn't KC just lose to the only winless team in the league (0-10 Oakland)? Russell Wilson isn't in the top ten of QBs. He's smart, a nice guy with many more attributes but is far short of being in the "elite" group. The defense and Lynch (running back) were the strong suits on last years SB winning team. Even so, Wilson would definitely be an asset on a team having more balance than Seattle has this year.
Last edited by muffdiver; 11-26-2014 at 12:24 PM.
Super Bowls are won by a team not a QB. Games are won by a team not a QB. Even QB stats are reflective of the offensive effort but are probably more by the QB then the others mentioned.
Every great QB gets the ego contract that is backloaded and then either conceded some of the back end or gets cut or traded. Brady has always played this game to the teams advantage. He knows his stats and legacy depend on the players he can get to play around him. Some teams are just better at playing the salary cap dance than others. I will be willing to bet Rodgers allows the club to renegotiate the back end of his contract when the time comes.
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Exoter, your comparing of the two contracts of Rodgers and Cutler shows you don't understand how contracts are structured and how the cap dance is played in the NFL.
Cutlers/Rodgers by year of contract:
Signing bonus: $5 million/ $33.6 million (Both averaged over 5 years for cap hit)
Guaranteed money: $38 million and 2 years (average $19 million/year)/ $54 million and 3 years (average $18 million/year)
1: $17.5 million (cap hit $18.5 million)/ $5 million (cap hit $12 million)
2: $15.5 million (cap hit $16.5 million, end of contract guarantee)/ $10.9 million (cap hit $17.55 million)
3: $16 million (cap hit $17 million)/ $11.6 million (cap hit $18.25 million, end of contract guarantee)
4: $15 million (cap hit $16 million)/ $12.6 million (cap hit $19.25 million)
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5: $16 million (cap hit $17 million)/ $13.65 million (cap hit $20.3 million)
6: $20 million (cap hit $20 million)/ $20.9 million (cap hit $20.9 million)
7: $21.7 million (cap hit $21.7 million)/ $21.1 million (cap hit $21.1 million)
Total: $126.7 million (cap hit $126.7 million)/ $129.35 million ($129.35 million)
Numbers courtesy of overthecap.com
http://overthecap.com/player/jay-cutler/130/
http://overthecap.com/player/aaron-rodgers/1085/
Both contracts will likely be renegotiated in their 4th year if both players last that long so anything beyond tat is just for show. They look about the same to me but Rodgers is structured much more team friendly. I think Rodgers' contract is a much better value considering the talent.
Last edited by Three; 11-26-2014 at 02:45 PM.
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