Getting this thread back on track and hopefully away from personal attacks, I'd like to bring up that point made earlier about the half point being so big. I went 3-2 this week because of a half a point line making or breaking me.
Originally Posted by Tthree
I'm sorry, Tthree! I haven't had time to read the whole post, but I will.
However, I don't and I can't believe in the above-referenced statement. Stafford is the 24th-ranked QB with 85 qbr, 268 ypg, 7.3 ypa, 13 td, 9 int, 31 sacks.
In QB rating, he ranks behind stellar QBs: Austin Davis (STL - benched), Eli (NYG - HOF QB), Shaun Hill (STL - benched), Hoyer (CLE), Cousins (WAS - benched), Fitz (HOU - benched), Mettenberger (TEN - Rookie) and RG3 (LOL!).
From NFL.com: "For his career, Matthew Stafford is 0-15 on the road against teams that finished the season with winning records."
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In contrast, Brady is 5th-ranked QB with 102 qbr, 265 ypg, 7.3 ypa, 24 td, 5 int, 14 sacks.
I'll finish reading the rest of the post. Thanks!
*** Update: I got my ranking wrong. According to NFL.com, Stafford is 24th-ranked QB of starting QBs. He is, in fact, 35th-ranked QB of all QBs who played this season.
Detroit's powerhouse Offense had improved in Week 12. It helped DET's special teams produce 3 FGs (at NE) vs just 2 FGs (at ARZ). The Offense (and Defense, for that matter) had produced zero points for 2 straight games.
Stafford had regressed with QB rating of 49.5. Stafford was ranked 26th out of 27 QBs who played Week 12 -- just ahead of Ryan Mallett. Ryan Mallett had torn his pectoral muscles during warm-ups before the game, yet still played. What is Stafford's excuse?
QB rating - NFL 2014 - Week 12.jpg
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/pgl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=game&year_min=2014& year_max=2014&season_start=1&season_end=-1&age_min=0&age_max=99&game_type=R&league_id=&team _id=&opp_id=&game_num_min=0&game_num_max=99&week_n um_min=12&week_num_max=12&game_day_of_week=&game_l ocation=&game_result=&handedness=&is_active=&is_ho f=&c1stat=pass_att&c1comp=gt&c1val=1&c2stat=&c2com p=gt&c2val=&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4com p=gt&c4val=&order_by=pass_rating
Last edited by Math Demon; 11-24-2014 at 11:42 PM. Reason: added snapshot
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To NFL newbies: Please perform your own analysis. Confirm any stats presented. Draw your own conclusions.
Handicapping is EXTREMELY hard! All statistical evidence (and game insights) may indicate strongly a specific outcome, winner, or continuing trend; but a turn-over, a missed field goal, an erroneous call, a key injury, etc. can easily change the outcome, the margins, and/or the totals. Division rivalry games and games with playoff implications are highly unpredictable.
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How often do you see my picks agree with the other guys system. If you paid attention you probably noticed my picks disagreed more often than agreed. I just started posting the system early in the year when I wouldn't make picks and just kept posting it after that. If I had the correct ratings then I would consider it but I don't. I couldn't find them and stopped my subscription to the news letter that published rankings for the final roster improvement over last years team. It is not my system and they are not my picks. They would only influence my picks if they had the right rankings, which they don't. You constantly make wrong assumptions about what I am doing.
The system with the right rankings is 61.3% over the previous 13 years. I didn't get the right rankings so garbage in garbage out like I have said so many times. If that is what you continually read as my opinion on those selections why in the h*ll would you think I would consider them in my picks. That is a really poor reasoning on your part. The evidence you have is I have constantly said it is garbage in garbage out. You can see I pick against the systems selections more often than with them. Yet you still assume what all the evidence contradicts.
I have been considering whether or not you are trolling in this thread. The repeated misunderstanding of this explained in great detail and posting things contrary to all evidence seems to keep pushing the conclusion toward big time troll. I try not to make assumptions but the evidence that you are a troll is getting overwhelming.
I never said I was an ATS man. I look for value. I prefer to find it in ATS bets but when you have a choice between a crappy number like +2.5 with good odds and a great number like +3.5 with crappy odds you either don't bet or you do something to negate the crappy odds like teasing the bet. That gives you value. You move the line across many high frequency MOV numbers and don't get the crappy odds or the crappy line.
To work the sign up bonus for online sights you need to cycle through your bonus money a dozen or so times with bets if you maximize the amount of the bonus. By spotting the value in early lines you can bet the other side of the wager after the line moves a few points. Then you get to cycle through money on both sides of the wager. Use of teasers can make for a huge middle but is much more volatile. With multiple accounts on different sites you can get nice middles without teasing. The payoff odds will tip you off on where the line is likely to move. They usually first try to get you to bet a team they want more action on with great odds. If they don't get enough that way to balance the game's wagers the line moves to get those waiting for a better line to jump in. Most online books give you 100% sign up bonus or more if you deposit enough money. The trick is to get through the rollover before you tap out of money. Miiddles on the same site or split between sites is a great tool to lower variance while making the rollover.
When betting an online book there are lots of ways to get value. It all starts with the accuracy of your picks but you can win a lot even if your picks aren't hitting if you know where and how to work the advantage angles.
Last edited by Three; 11-25-2014 at 04:31 AM.
I am not a Stafford apologist but I will look at the game stats and se what they suggest. The first one to look at is the sacks. Pressure will kill a QB's stats. Only 2 sacks which may be a lot for some teams is small for a team like DET that gives up so many sacks and a team like NE that gets so many. Stats would suggest 5 or 6 stats for this matchup. The implication is NE was happy with the pressure it got sending fewer rushers. That means more people in coverage and perhaps DET holding an eligible receiver back to get better pass protection on some plays to deal with the expected pressure further helping the secondary with even more DB's to cover fewer receivers. DET was trailing except for a field goal lead. They kept it close enough to make their inept rushing game need to be accounted for by the defense but by halftime a rout was starting to show on the scoreboard. This would likely make DET even more 1 dimensional than they are with their poor rushing threat. having to throw the ball consistently into more DB's than receivers is a daunting task specially when you are talking the opportunistic NE DB's.
The one small victory, Stafford had was no INT which was a pretty good feat in this game especially the way it unfolded. Other than that he really stunk it up. A 46.7% comp percentage, no TD's, really nothing good to hang his hat on. DET is missing the key ingredient to a good passing game, an O-line that can give the QB some time. Until that changes they will only have success by luck or against a team that can't pressure the QB or perhaps when certain defensive mismatches are asked to cover some of their great receivers.
I didn't watch the game so this is just a bunch of guesses from how the teams match up and the game stats. As long as Stafford is on his back after a lot of plays I don't see him performing up to his ability. This is a team sport. Even elite QB's don't do well if they don't have time or their receivers don't get separation. DET certainly has a good defense but that only wins you games when you keep the opponents score low enough.
T3, you are a smart guy and I respect you, but there is a time and a place to write novel response; like explaining to a newbie, like you once did for me, how certain things might affect EV values and so forth in APBJ. Explaining your reasoning for using a guys' system that you don't fully agree with, on a forum with some football/odds/FFL pros on the other hand, is going to fall on a LOT of deaf ears. Especially with your line sources being a little misshapen. And I realize you make your own lines, but you are just never going to BET your own lines. You get to BET their lines, and while its a good idea to have a system to determine the lines early so you can get IN on the early line odds, it is exceptionally rare for those early odds to truly affect the pocketbook for a PLETHORA of reasons. Now, if you've got set lines for one place, and another, and those lines aren't going to move, say, on a Saturday before a Sunday game, sure, shop for the best line, of course! Most line advantages happen Wednesday and prior though, and with practices happening Wednesday-friday in this day and age, you can't really take advantage of the early lines like you would have before the past two CBA's.
Anyways, couple comments to some quotes of interest.
If that's the case, why even post them here? Nobody on this forum wholeheartedly agrees with that ranking system, and if you yourself don't agree with them; A: why post them here? B: why use them in your own determination?
I think a lot of your theory and reasoning is rather mediocre here, either because you're a little less "versed" in this field, or because you're looking at this from a very flawed, statistical approach.
Either way, I'm with you in that Stafford is a very good, franchise Quarterback, and his team is lucky to have him. His team has been building for the last 7 years, even before him, and they lack a few pieces to the puzzle, unfortunately, I do not believe Detroits OC can truly take advantage of the skillsets he has on the field, offensively, and I think there's a lot of room for statistical improvement in Stafford's future, without it being so much on his level of play, rather than the designs of the plays and the personnel involved.
No I am sure you are trolling. I have repeatedly explained the system is valid but the rankings are not. It is not hard to understand. GARBAGE IN-GARBAGE OUT. Is that really so hard for you to understand. I have said it overe and over without even talking to you.
This is supposed to be a fun thread for most here. I started posting them and in fact have already posted all the picks for the system for the whole season (like around week 6 or 7) despite the poor input not being right. So I am not continuing to post picks, I am just keeping track of the results. It is just interesting to see how it goes and fun. Anybody that reads how it has the wrong data and its record with the wrong rankings and bets using it is doing so informed and at their own risk.
WOW, You just want to twist the meaning of everything I say (like a troll). I clearly said I was a value man . I prefer to find that value in ATS picks for lower variance. My betting track record would have any of my books say I am a teaser man or a middle bettor if they looked collectively. The key to middles is the MOV frequencies of the MOV that make you win. If your middle include a MOV of 3 it is more powerful than a middle that contains a MOV of more than one number especially weak MOV frequencies like 11 and 12. The line usually gets the zone of MOV to expect pretty close. What I mean is if a team is a 20 point favorite the MOV is not very likely to be 3. But the line is usually close to where you can expect the MOV to fall so the line takes care of this issue.
Tthree, I frankly suggest looking at another source for your stats, because according to NFL.com ...
Stafford was 18 out of 46 (39% completion rate) with one (1) INT and 2 sacks for -20 yards. DET was 5 for 17 (29%) on 3rd down. You're right about no TDs. He's had no TDs for 2 straight games.
You said you are not a Stafford apologist, but excuses for Stafford's abject performance is all I see here. DET's "poor rushing threat" actually outgained NE's rushing group in yardage. With that logic, NE should have no TDs and less than 3 FGs.
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For stats, try using www.NFL.com or www.pro-football-reference.com
http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2014112306/2014/REG12/lions@patriots#menu=gameinfo|contentId%3A0ap300000 0433901&tab=analyze&analyze=boxscore
QB rating - NFL 2014 - Week 12.jpg
Last edited by Math Demon; 11-25-2014 at 08:59 AM. Reason: highlighted useful links
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To NFL newbies: Please perform your own analysis. Confirm any stats presented. Draw your own conclusions.
Handicapping is EXTREMELY hard! All statistical evidence (and game insights) may indicate strongly a specific outcome, winner, or continuing trend; but a turn-over, a missed field goal, an erroneous call, a key injury, etc. can easily change the outcome, the margins, and/or the totals. Division rivalry games and games with playoff implications are highly unpredictable.
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Detroit isn't the only NFC north team with a grossly overpaid QB. Jay Cutler underachieves big time for what the Bears are giving him. On the flip side, it looks like the Packers have a real bargain in Aaron Rodgers. The only other division team is the Vikings and the jury is still out on Bridgewater there but Adrian Petersen (off field) ruined any Minnesota dreams for this season. Too bad because they have a good new coach (Zimmer).
http://www.oddsshark.com/nfl/computer-picks
Computer Picks from oddsshark. Anybody agree with their ATS picks?
Thursday:
DET 20, CHI 15 so CHI + 7
DAL 33, PHI 31 so PHI + 3
SEA 25, SFO 21 (SEA pk)
NE 41, GB 40 so NE + 3
NFC South Watch:
ARZ 26, ATL 20 (ARZ - 2.5)
PIT 27, NO 25 (NO + 3)
MIN 15, CAR 13 (CAR + 2.5)
CIN 23, TB 14 (CIN - 4)
* If ALL Computer Picks for NFC South are correct, ATL will lead division with 4-8, NO (4-8), CAR (3-8-1), and TB (2-10).
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To NFL newbies: Please perform your own analysis. Confirm any stats presented. Draw your own conclusions.
Handicapping is EXTREMELY hard! All statistical evidence (and game insights) may indicate strongly a specific outcome, winner, or continuing trend; but a turn-over, a missed field goal, an erroneous call, a key injury, etc. can easily change the outcome, the margins, and/or the totals. Division rivalry games and games with playoff implications are highly unpredictable.
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I either got it from nfl.com or your lonk. Moat likely I just read the chart wrong. It looks like I combined Stafford and Ryan Mallett listed below Stafford in your link. When I typed in 46.7% I remember thinking I thought it was lower than that.
WOW, another trying to take things out of context. NE average 3.9 yards/carry and and 115.7 yards/game rushing 44% of the time vs DET 3.2 yards/carry and 79.2 yards/game rushing 39.8% of the time in the 10 games each played before this game. The mentality going into the game would be not much to worry about from the DET rush. In the game NE averaged 4.5 yards/carry for 90 yards while rushing 27.4% of the time for 2 TD's because they faced the top rush defense in the league that had given up an average only 3 yards/carry in the previous 10 games. DET faced a rush defense that had given up 4.2 yards/play on average for the 10 games this season. But they rushed 39.4% of the time against NE and averaged 3.6 yards/carry for 91 yards and no TD's.
Now if you want to call a team that averages 3.2 yards/carry rushing and only rushes less than 40% of the time for less than 80 yards a game a rush threat that is up to you. To me that is a poor rushing team. Now do you understand the context. Each team uses the rush in their own way. Running keeps the D honest so even if you are a poor rush threat rushing closer to 50% of the time will help the pass game (you are a two dimensional threat and the opponent's D can't sit on the pass play because they have to be ready for the run every play). It also can be used to help take time off the clock. If you have a strong run game it can be part of your primary offensive production. Whether your team puts up big number or small running the ball, how effective your run game is depends on how well it accomplishes the goal of why you are running in the first place. For most teams that is by gaining lots of yards but some teams passing game stats and scoring are directly proportional to the percentage of the time they run.
Look at the Ravens stats over the years. If they ran enough times they had success passing and outscored their opponent. If they abandoned the pass early (because they were behind in most cases) the found passing difficult (not surprising) and lost. When they had success passing they came out running first and started passing as the defense adjusted to stop the run. They would do this even if their run game wasn't gaining many yards. Once their pass game started to be utilized and was productive the run game became productive.
I was accused of being long winded so I pared down my post assuming people were informed enough to fill in the blanks. Either I am just being ganged on or people aren't as informed as I had assumed or somewhere in the middle.
Anyway neither team put up big rushing yardage. NE had a high average rush at 4.5/carry. NE was successful rushing with 2 TD's rushing and a very productive pass game as DET had to worry about them gaining 4 yards/rush (they averaged 4.5 yards/run) which allowed for more openings either for the rush or the pass depending on the D. In my book DET succeeded in nothing the run game can help your offense with and NE had a very successful offense with the run being an important part. I would more say their passing game gave them running success than vise versa though. NE really didn't utilize the run much at all but when they did they were successful.
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