If that was directed at me I didn't mean it in any way except asking a serious question. Those lines are the ones that are on the website I bet on and was just asking if anyone had an opinion because I was stuck. Sorry if I offended.
Originally Posted by tjr5259
I'm not sure we're allowed to name sites. But there are sites which will allow to compare current lines from different online books.
There is one book that I know that will allow you to choose two (2) NFL teams, NBA teams, etc as your favorites. When you bet these favorites, you enjoy a half-point movement in your favor (for free)!
There is another book that week-in and week-out favors the underdog. For example, if everywhere you look you find NYG+3, this book usually has NYG+3.5. Most of the time, I don't bet favorites on this book. Their OU line is almost always a half-point higher. So if you want to bet Under and/or the dog, this is the place.
Right now, the lines are DAL - 5, NYG + 5.5. Sometimes, you have to get in early. But as of last night, I was able to get DAL - 3.
Good Luck!
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To NFL newbies: Please perform your own analysis. Confirm any stats presented. Draw your own conclusions.
Handicapping is EXTREMELY hard! All statistical evidence (and game insights) may indicate strongly a specific outcome, winner, or continuing trend; but a turn-over, a missed field goal, an erroneous call, a key injury, etc. can easily change the outcome, the margins, and/or the totals. Division rivalry games and games with playoff implications are highly unpredictable.
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I can't speak for others, but specially since you're stuck, it might be better to wait until MNF (2 games), Thanksgiving Day (with 3 games), or next Sunday (12 games). This will give you the time to thoroughly analyze the strengths and weaknesses of the teams.
Half of us will recommend the dog, half the favorite. Only half of us will be correct. Which half would it be? We ourselves don't know.
Good Luck!
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To NFL newbies: Please perform your own analysis. Confirm any stats presented. Draw your own conclusions.
Handicapping is EXTREMELY hard! All statistical evidence (and game insights) may indicate strongly a specific outcome, winner, or continuing trend; but a turn-over, a missed field goal, an erroneous call, a key injury, etc. can easily change the outcome, the margins, and/or the totals. Division rivalry games and games with playoff implications are highly unpredictable.
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If I am going to bet I am going to get the best line I can. I will wait for certain numbers and sometimes they never quite get there. Like I said with the HOU game, I wanted +1 and the best line I could get all week was HOU PK and that didn't last long. Try looking at the early lines that is where the value usually is.
GB closed at -7.5 in most casinos. If I ad waited longer I could have got AZ +8. I mostly bet online.
Tampa bay hit +7 midweek. I wish I would have passed it up.
Close of online books:
GB:
BETONLINE.ag: -7.5
5Dimes.eu: -7.5
Sortsbetting.ag: -7.5
Bovada: -9
fantasy911: -8.5
I couldn't get-8 anywhere and I am sure going to bet -7.5 rather than -8.5 or -9.
AZ:
BOL.ag: +7
5Dimes: +7.5
Sportsbetting.ag: +7
BOVADA: +7
Fantasy911.com: +7
That extra half point is huge but came at a cost as you can see. -108 instead of no vig. I thought it was worth it.
The lines bounce around all week. If I like a play I try to get the best line I can. Wouldn't you. There is a big advantage to having money in multiple books. You can develop middles or pick your best lines. ML bets can be very different. I am not sure why you think there is just one line that doesn't change all week. The line rarely closes where it opens at the beginning of this week. Some books let you bet on next weeks games before this weeks are over. The lines may move a lot after the games are played. Can you say huge point spread middle. It sounds like you are really missing some of the best betting opportunities.
http://espn.go.com/nfl/lines
It bottomed out at DAL -2.5 midweek. That was what I was waiting for. It was at -3 most of the early week. But there is a big difference between -3 and -2.5. You can still get it at -5 but it has been heading in the wrong direction since mid-week. BETONLINE.ag, 5dimes and Sportsbotting .ag still have -5. BOVADA -5.5. At least the last I checked. Their O/U number is either 48 or 48.5. I hope you can do better but if you don't already have an account you won't be able to make these bets.
Well I have been adding things to make my estimates better but they seem to be getting worse. This week was a bad one. There weren't any strong picks and all the ones I weeded out were winners and the ones I left in losers. It happens that way sometimes.
I have been spending too much time on this anyway. I have too many things going on right now. You make the decision easy which one to stop doing.
As you can see from the lines I didn't get in peak this week on every game or O/U. When a line is at a key number (like 3, 6, 7 or 10. Even 13 or 14) I try to get it at a better number by waiting patiently. Sometimes I get it sometimes I don't. If I don't I either don't bet, buy the 1/2 point or bet the number I can get. Of course you only get to see the ones I do get as unusual. The ones I don't bet you don't see and the ones I bet without getting the number I want look normal to you. If you want everyone to pick what you think the line should be rather than what they got their bet at post the line you want people to choose from every week. That doesn't mean I am going to bet that line when I can get better with half the online books.
Well I bet a lot of teasers so my winnings are more than one might think. Usually I prefer ATS bets. But if the number I want has a crappy payoff I look to tease it. If the number can be moved across enough high frequency numbers like 3,6 and 7 I look to tease it.Fortunately that is saving me this week a lot of those extreme lines came with bad odds as they usually do and were teased but AZ while the odds were comparatively bad at -108 rather than no vig it was still good odds (teaser wouldn't have helped that pick anyway). I teased TB with GB and got a winner. I teased DEN to -1 with DAL but even at DAL +3.5 that half of the teaser doesn't look good. I always tease point totals but still lost the STL/SD leg of that bet by 1 point I lost the other leg anyway. So My bets are 1-2 with 1 more pending with the first leg already won. No vig on teasers so 2-2 is almost a freebie after losing one ATS bet at -108.
If you have a strong tip PM me. I shouldn't have picked so many games in a poor opportunity week but I thought it a bad idea to do a 3 team teaser so I added one fortunately. And I needed 2 O?U to tease them. I should have just dropped the O/U.
I hope everyone else is doing better. It looks like I may get skunked this week. Everything went so bad I think I will just sit on any picks for tomorrow. I was still waiting for a better line on the BAL. I was waiting for +5.5 but it peaked at +4 and now the best I can get is +3.5. and real bad odds. No good bet to tease crappy odds away with so at -120 even the number I am waiting for is not good. I guess I need to look at Thursday's games. there might be a good teaser partner found there. the change of venue messed up any plans on the BUF game. I was leaning BUF but needed -1.5 and the best I saw was -2.5. The change of venue makes NYJ look more attractive but not a pick at +3.5. It was at NYJ +4.5 but that was before the change of venue.
It looks like DAL is waking up. they are down 4 so I am down 1/2 point on the second leg of my teaser. I might go almost even money for the week after all.
Last edited by Three; 11-23-2014 at 07:54 PM.
Now now, lets be nice
I don't really buy this based on the fact that whatever guidelines you keep posting information from, have KC ranked as godawful, but they are one of the best ATS teams over the last year or two.
I have explained this many times. That system bases picks on the ratings of how teams improved from the end of last season to the end of the preseason. That rating will not change after the season starts. I actually could get the ratings for the end of the preseason after the roster was set so the ratings are for the beginning of the preseason which isn't what the system is supposed to use. The rating of F for the Chiefs doesn't mean they are the worst team . It means they addressed issues they had with their team very poorly in the off season and the roster looks like their team will be worse than last year. The Chiefs had a good team last year so being worse doesn't mean being bad. Teams graded to need to improve at certain positions as the most important thing to become a better team. The strength of the team including team depth is reviewed and compared to last years final roster and a grade is given. You never can tell how a team will gel by the sum of its parts. Football is a team sport more than any other. Putting Peyton or Brady on the Jags roster isn't going to make them a great team. They have a horrible defense and can't protect their QB. A top elite QB won't have much affect there.
IT IS A RATING OF HOW WELL THEY ADDRESSED THEIR TEAMS WEAKNESSES IN THE OFF SEASON AND HOW MOVES AFFECTED THEIR STRENGTHS. You may have noticed the picks for the entire season were posted weeks ago because the ratings will never change. LInes makers and the betting public often remember what last years team was like and bet or set lines based on that. THe disparity of that perception and the final roster brings opportunity as lines are not what they should be to try and balance the betting based on last years team rather than this years team.
As much as you love the Chiefs the grade their team got for how their post draft moves and players that left and new signings will never change. The grade is supposed to be for the final roster before the season starts but the ones I have are for the huge roster at the beginning of the preseason. Garbage in-garbage out. If it makes you feel better KC was ranked 8th before week 12. Losing to the team ranked 32nd (last) is most likely going to have that drop.OAK is now ranked 29th. KC is ranked 13th this week (rankings courtesy of Bleacher Report). Unfortunately if you want them at number 3 to be happy the are in the body of the bell curve for rankings this week. KC has some big opponents coming up. If they can win in the next 2 weeks they may have a high ranking. My picks are based on current power rankings when it comes to factoring in rankings. I prefer quantitative stats. The difference between a power ranking of 12 and 20 may be almost nothing and the difference between 20 and 21 may be huge. Qualitative stats always need context to be meaningful. You might as well go with the quantitative stats that give them context.
I wouldn't worry much about the rankings if I were you. KC has the type of team that has been winning SB's in recent years especially if they play a big O team. First they need to make the playoffs. They are in good shape but have some tough games left. DEN, @ AZ a rematch of their loss this week with OAK (it should be easy but this week should have been easy), @ PIT, SD with Rivers having plenty of time to heal up from nagging injuries affecting his play in the last several weeks. The division title is looking like a long shot and the wild card race has 4 teams tied and 3 more very close. I think you have a good shot at the playoffs at this time. You are playing many of the key teams in tie breakers in the coming weeks. The key is to beat SD in a tie breaker in order to represent your division in a larger tie breaker. That is controlling your own destiny, but that is likely to change as we progress. Then after making the playoffs your team needs to go on a run to make the SB. Defense performing great is key to get past the big O teams. Once you are in the big game anything can happen.
If you don't believe my betting style look at my thread from last year where I posted all my bets. Lots of teasers and some parlays. The added variance of these bets caught of with me last year. So far this year the added variance has been helping. It really sucks when a week of great picks is a loser because you didn't need the teasers or waiting for the better line for most bets but unfortunate teaser groupings made a few bad picks spoil what should have been a good week. At least DAL came through last night to make this weeks bets almost a push.
I would like to say I grade my performance on my pick success not my bet success because of the crazy variance that accompanies teasers. Teaser groupings can be a matter of luck for a number of picks. 3-3 on picks can go 3-0 for the teasers or 0-3. If all your picks lose by a narrow margin you win all your teasers your teasers. The skill is in the picks so that is were I measure my success. Teasing strong picks is stupid unless the poor odds have killed the value. Teasing weak picks is practically a must. If you are interested in teasers at least 2 online books still have the 1:1 payout odds for 2 team 6 point teasers. Most every other place to bet a teaser has made the odds worse because AP's using strong move totals based on frequency of MOV type teasers to consistently win money against the books. After Wong published it and the books figured out why some were beating their sucker teaser bets most books changed the teaser odds. If you are interested I can shoot you a PM with those 2 sites. Of course the flow of money is pretty choppy with teasers due to the higher variance associated with teasers. Each total differential (MOV) has a different frequency of occurrence due to the nature of scoring in the NFL being limited to 2, 3, 6, 7 and 8 points with only 3 and 7 being very likely). The 3 (15.67% of game point differentials), 7 (9.97% of point differentials) ,6 ( 5.55% of point differentials) and 4 ( 5.17% of point differentials) point MOV are the most frequent point differentials. Being able to tease a line across all or to a lesser degree most of these numbers increases your chances much more than teasing across other numbers. Only 6 other MOV have over 3% frequency. Of the 6 (10, 14, 2, 3, 8 and 21) only a 10 point MOV (6.03%) falls within the frequency range of the 4 MOV 's that I listed as the perfect numbers to move the line across.
Okay, again, I'm not taking the time to read ALL of that, when it is clear you missed the point from the start.
I understand what your ranking analysis means, after you've explained it, but to claim to be an ATS pick man, and then USE information from that system, for whatever purpose, to influence your own picks, is the reason why I question it.
After all, what's the point of using that information in your picks, if it makes no sense or has little statistical value?
Again, reiterating here, if you're an ATS man, why would you take ANY stock in that letter grade system that has some of the best ATS teams of last year and this year, ranked so poorly?
That's like playing through THE WORST TC ever, because the theory is that it can only go UP from there.
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