Sharky's NFL play of the week

[Three]

What do you think of the DAL-3 @ CHI pick?

Comparing stats:
DAL passing O; 244/364, 67.0%, 30.3 att/gm, 8.2 yds/att, 231.9 yds/gm, 24 TDs, 10 INT, 25 sacks, RTG 102.5
CHI passing D: 277/422, 65.6%, 35.2 att/gm, 8.1 yds/att, 270.7 yds/gm, 27 TDs, 11 INT, 29 sacks, RTG 101.1

This has very similar stats on both sides of the ball for the DAL passing O. It should be predictable with DAL doing what tey usually do or better.

DAL rush O: 30.4 att/gm, (rushing 50.0% of the time), 4.8 yds/ carry, 145.3 yds/gm, 9 TDs , 7 lost fumbles
CHI rush D: 30.2 att/gm, (opp rush 46.2% of the time), 4.2 yds/carry, 105.5 yds/gm, 7 TDs, 3 takeaways by fumble

DAL should have no trouble running the ball which will make their passing game that much more effective. They use a balanced offensive attack so the defense must be ready to stop both the pass and the run. Not an easy task for many teams.

DAL red zone O TD Percentage: 64.71%, 71.43% on the road. 2.8 opp/gm, 2.8 on the road. 1.8 TDs/gm, 2.0 on the road.
Total offensive scoring 25.2 pts/gm, 30.4 on the road.
CHI red zone D TD percentage: 52.94%, 55.00% at home. 4.2 opp/gm, 4.0 at home. 2.2 TDs/gm, 2.2 at home.:
Total opp offensive scoring 28.1 pts/gm, 22.8 at home.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CHI passing O: 301/457, 65.9%, 38.1 att.gm, 6.9 yds/att, 246.9 yds/gm, 24 TDs, 14 INT, 30 sacks, RTG 90.4
DAL passing D: 265/399, 66.4%, 33.2 att/gm, 7.6 yds/gm, 244.5 yds/gm, 18 TDs, 11 INT, 18 sacks, RTG 92.5

Looks somewhat predictable except that DAL doesn't allow as many TDs passing (only 75% of CHI output). Can CHI make it up running for TDs?

CHI rush O: 23.1 att/gm, (rushing 37.7% of the time), 4.0 yards/carry,93.2 yds/gm, 6 TDs, 6 lost fumbles
DAL rush D: 26.8 att/gm, (opp rush 44.2% of the time), 4.5 yds/carry, 119.6 yds/gm, 12 TDs, 2 takeaways by fumble

It looks like CHI can make it up rushing but will they? They are not a rushing team and DAL will need to score to force them to be more pass prone. IF DAL can get a decent lead CHI chances of catching up are not playing to their better matchups. Their stats indicate they don't rush as much as they will need to. Is this because they are behind or just their tendency.

CHI red zone O TD percentage: 64.86%, 66.67% at home. 3.1 opp/gm, 3.0 at home. 2.0 TDs/gm, 2.0 at home.
Total offensive scoring 21.1 pts/gm, 18.6 at home.
DAL red zone D TD percentage: 61.11%,50.00% on the road. 3.0 opp/gm, 2.8 on the road. 1.8 TDs/gm, 1.4 on the road.
Total opp offense scoring 22.8 pts/gm, 21.8 on the road.


DAL -3 giveaway/takeaway, CHI -4 giveaway/takeaway. About the same and the tendencies of how the ball is turned over are about the same.

CHI has been dealing with injuries on defense. A big injury cluster in the secondary.

DALLAS BY 7+

[Exoter175]

DALLAS BY 7+

Whaaaaaaaaaaaaat?

Excuse me, where is the math on this one?

Allow me to add a few points you're not talking about here.

1. Tony Romo has a bad back, still not recovered fully.
2. Dallas is the ROAD team on TNF giving them ~38.6% chance of winning this game, historically.
3. Its going to be a coooooooooooold game at Soldier field. Something Romo and Murray have never done exceptionally well on, historically.

The line for this game according to a quick glance at ESPN is Dallas by 3.5 O/U of 51.5 and I'm inclined to believe that both the game and the O/U could come down to making or breaking on that .5 mark. I "expect" dallas to win, but I wouldn't be so sure on betting Dallas to win by 7+ in Soldier Field.

This game in all honestly will likely get decided by 6 points or less IF Dallas wins it, and 10+ if Chicago wins it.

Comparing passing stats and rushing stats like they matter is a joke.

Let me answer a few questions for you real quick T3.

The last thing Dallas needs is Chicago behind by less than 7 with the ball. Chicago has one of THE best receiving corps in the league with Jeffery and Marshall, with a gunslinger willing to put that ball into tight spaces (Cutler). They have one of the most dynamic running backs in the league (forte) with one of the top 15 receiving tight ends in the league (Bennet). This team is exactly designed to compete with quick scoring teams like the Packers, while limiting "long" gain runs.

This is also December football with Tony Romo coming off an embarassing blowout loss to the Eagles on Thanksgiving, something that doesn't usually happen historically under Romo. Tony Romo is something like 12-18 in December as the Cowboys' starting QB. Including a brutal loss last year to the Bears in Soldier field by 17 points WITHOUT Cutler at QB mind you.


There's no way you can pick this game with any confidence on the side of the cowboys, if anything you're giving it to the bears but their play this year leaves me a little unsure about this one. I honestly don't think you could even take this as an O/U pick this week.


NO PLAY this week.

[Three]

1. Tony Romo has a bad back, still not recovered fully.

DAL has a balanced attack. They rush as much as they run. Their run game is better than their passing game. Historically Romo has been leaned on to win games and it never worked for getting to the SB. This year they committed to having a team that doesn't require Romo to win games. Romo has proved he is fine with going with the game plan. Romo will need to be the guy if: (A) CHI is blowing out DAL. An unlikely scenario but if need be Romo can put up the numbers and mix in enough run by audible to keep the pass more open. The later in the game it gets the more he will throw if he is behind. That plays against DAL strength. The question is do you think CHI will have the lead? I don't and I don't think they will be blowing out DAL.
(B) For some reason the run just isn't working. Again an unlikely scenario given the matchup stats.

DAL rush O: 30.4 att/gm, (rushing 50.0% of the time), 4.8 yds/ carry, 145.3 yds/gm, 9 TDs , 7 lost fumbles
CHI rush D: 30.2 att/gm, (opp rush 46.2% of the time), 4.2 yds/carry, 105.5 yds/gm, 7 TDs, 3 takeaways by fumble

2. Dallas is the ROAD team on TNF giving them ~38.6% chance of winning this game, historically.

In order to use stats effectively you must not just be able to site them but understand enough about the game to know why the stat is the way it is. Obviously you don't have that level of knowledge of the game. Typically on TNF both teams are handicapped by playing on a short week. The team that has to travel is handicapped much worse for obvious reasons. This TNF game is unique. Both teams played last Thursday and are playing on a full weeks rest just like a normal Sunday game. If you use the TNF stat you sited, you just don't understand where the edge for the home team on TNF comes from.

3. Its going to be a coooooooooooold game at Soldier field. Something Romo and Murray have never done exceptionally well on, historically.

It will be cold, if you call 30 degrees cold. Coming off an embarrassing loss to the Eagles at home last Thursday the Cowboys will look to show that they are a better team. Add that motivation to the fact that there are huge playoff implications now that Dallas is not in first place and lost the first of 2 to the now first place Eagles. DAL has been practicing in 30 degree weather this week to be ready for the cold. The game time weather is cloudy with a less than 10% chance of light rain/drizzle, 34 degrees, light SE winds. The cloud cover holds in the temperature at night. the humidity (60%) makes it feel colder than the temperature. It is actually supposed to get warmer as the game progresses but in a minimal sense. That isn't going to hurt the Cowboys chances. As for using DAL team stats from previous years. DAL has a different offensive attack now. They run the ball 50% of the time for 4.8 yds/carry and 145.3 yds/gm but in 2013 they ran 36.5% of the time 4.5 yds/carry and 94 yds/gm and in 2012 they ran 35.1% of the time 3.6 yds/carry and 79.1 yds/gm.

If you understood football you would know that with the more effective running game evolving in 2013 and the final piece that made them a very different offense, going from rushing 36% of the time to 50% of the time coming in 2014, the previous years stats are no longer describing this offensive unit. Trying to use previous years stats will produce poor results since they no longer describe the current offense. Stats are a great tool but without a thorough understanding of the game and how to use stats they can lead you to the wrong conclusion. As for the weather, it looks like perfect football playing weather. If the cold is a factor it affects the running game the least of all things. That favors DAL.

If you want a stat to see how DAL will fair look at how CHI did against teams that rush about 50% of the time. Unfortunately CHI hasn't played any. Going to game stats where their opponent ran 50% of the time against CHI:
1) BUF ran 60% of the time and won 23-20 in OT at Soldier Field. CHI defense healthy. I think we can all agree that DAL is a far better team then BUF and will be playing a hobbled CHI D.
2) MIA rushed 50.8% of the time and won 27-14 at Soldier Field.
3) GB ran 50% of the time and won 14-55 in GB. This one can probably be thrown out since the run was likely to eat clock and not a style of play from the start.
So as we can see even a mediocre team like BUF playing against a healthy full strength CHI D wins when the run a lot. MIA used the run to kill CHI again against a better D than DAL will face on TNF. DAL used to be an extremely pass heavy team which CHI fairs much better against. Now they are a balanced offense that has one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL. Something CHI just hasn't been able to deal with. The teams that employed a balanced or run heavy attack have over performed expectations each time they faced CHI and each time was at Soldier Field. Expect DAL to over perform expectation as well.

This is also December football with Tony Romo coming off an embarassing blowout loss to the Eagles on Thanksgiving, something that doesn't usually happen historically under Romo. Tony Romo is something like 12-18 in December as the Cowboys' starting QB. Including a brutal loss last year to the Bears in Soldier field by 17 points WITHOUT Cutler at QB mind you.

If this game was ROMO throwing 65% of the time I would agree with this assessment but you can expect at most 50% passing plays. That is a very different offense. Remember Romo is a field general that calls the plays. They aren't rushing this much because the coach wants to. Romo is calling the plays and he is having one of the best years if not the best year of his career passing despite running almost 39% more often than in previous years. Highest QBR, highest yds/att since his rookie year, most TDs/gm, highest completion percentage except for when injury shortened a season to 6 games. Romo has to love the balanced offense. Expect to see it on TNF. That means you will see a different offense than was represented by previous year stats when Romo was the life and death of the offense. Now the team rests on Romo as a field general not a prima donna QB that can't handle the pressure. That is the difference between a great QB and an elite QB. The best always call the plays on the field. It is a huge advantage and shows just how good a QB really is over those that just have skillz when he calls a game that makes his team the best it can be.

If you understood the game of football better you would know what stats to pay attention to and what stats to look at with a grain of salt. The stats you sighted are all stats that really shouldn't be applied to the current DAL offense. This years performance will define that. We don't have any games to use for stats for the new offensive attack in the cold or in December.

[Exoter175]

DAL has a balanced attack. They rush as much as they run. Their run game is better than their passing game. Historically Romo has been leaned on to win games and it never worked for getting to the SB. This year they committed to having a team that doesn't require Romo to win games. Romo has proved he is fine with going with the game plan. Romo will need to be the guy if: (A) CHI is blowing out DAL. An unlikely scenario but if need be Romo can put up the numbers and mix in enough run by audible to keep the pass more open. The later in the game it gets the more he will throw if he is behind. That plays against DAL strength. The question is do you think CHI will have the lead? I don't and I don't think they will be blowing out DAL.
(B) For some reason the run just isn't working. Again an unlikely scenario given the matchup stats.


In order to use stats effectively you must not just be able to site them but understand enough about the game to know why the stat is the way it is. Obviously you don't have that level of knowledge of the game. Typically on TNF both teams are handicapped by playing on a short week. The team that has to travel is handicapped much worse for obvious reasons. This TNF game is unique. Both teams played last Thursday and are playing on a full weeks rest just like a normal Sunday game. If you use the TNF stat you sited, you just don't understand where the edge for the home team on TNF comes from.

It will be cold, if you call 30 degrees cold. Coming off an embarrassing loss to the Eagles at home last Thursday the Cowboys will look to show that they are a better team. Add that motivation to the fact that there are huge playoff implications now that Dallas is not in first place and lost the first of 2 to the now first place Eagles. DAL has been practicing in 30 degree weather this week to be ready for the cold. The game time weather is cloudy with a less than 10% chance of light rain/drizzle, 34 degrees, light SE winds. The cloud cover holds in the temperature at night. the humidity (60%) makes it feel colder than the temperature. It is actually supposed to get warmer as the game progresses but in a minimal sense. That isn't going to hurt the Cowboys chances. As for using DAL team stats from previous years. DAL has a different offensive attack now. They run the ball 50% of the time for 4.8 yds/carry and 145.3 yds/gm but in 2013 they ran 36.5% of the time 4.5 yds/carry and 94 yds/gm and in 2012 they ran 35.1% of the time 3.6 yds/carry and 79.1 yds/gm.

If you understood football you would know that with the more effective running game evolving in 2013 and the final piece that made them a very different offense, going from rushing 36% of the time to 50% of the time coming in 2014, the previous years stats are no longer describing this offensive unit. Trying to use previous years stats will produce poor results since they no longer describe the current offense. Stats are a great tool but without a thorough understanding of the game and how to use stats they can lead you to the wrong conclusion. As for the weather, it looks like perfect football playing weather. If the cold is a factor it affects the running game the least of all things. That favors DAL.

If you want a stat to see how DAL will fair look at how CHI did against teams that rush about 50% of the time. Unfortunately CHI hasn't played any. Going to game stats where their opponent ran 50% of the time against CHI:
1) BUF ran 60% of the time and won 23-20 in OT at Soldier Field. CHI defense healthy. I think we can all agree that DAL is a far better team then BUF and will be playing a hobbled CHI D.
2) MIA rushed 50.8% of the time and won 27-14 at Soldier Field.
3) GB ran 50% of the time and won 14-55 in GB. This one can probably be thrown out since the run was likely to eat clock and not a style of play from the start.
So as we can see even a mediocre team like BUF playing against a healthy full strength CHI D wins when the run a lot. MIA used the run to kill CHI again against a better D than DAL will face on TNF. DAL used to be an extremely pass heavy team which CHI fairs much better against. Now they are a balanced offense that has one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL. Something CHI just hasn't been able to deal with. The teams that employed a balanced or run heavy attack have over performed expectations each time they faced CHI and each time was at Soldier Field. Expect DAL to over perform expectation as well.


If this game was ROMO throwing 65% of the time I would agree with this assessment but you can expect at most 50% passing plays. That is a very different offense. Remember Romo is a field general that calls the plays. They aren't rushing this much because the coach wants to. Romo is calling the plays and he is having one of the best years if not the best year of his career passing despite running almost 39% more often than in previous years. Highest QBR, highest yds/att since his rookie year, most TDs/gm, highest completion percentage except for when injury shortened a season to 6 games. Romo has to love the balanced offense. Expect to see it on TNF. That means you will see a different offense than was represented by previous year stats when Romo was the life and death of the offense. Now the team rests on Romo as a field general not a prima donna QB that can't handle the pressure. That is the difference between a great QB and an elite QB. The best always call the plays on the field. It is a huge advantage and shows just how good a QB really is over those that just have skillz when he calls a game that makes his team the best it can be.

If you understood the game of football better you would know what stats to pay attention to and what stats to look at with a grain of salt. The stats you sighted are all stats that really shouldn't be applied to the current DAL offense. This years performance will define that. We don't have any games to use for stats for the new offensive attack in the cold or in December.

1A. Dallas rushes as much as they run? You don't say??????
1B. Run first offense or not, and they actually aren't, they've been relying on the run heavily this year to mask the issues in their vertical passing game, as well as the switch to the zone blocking scheme with Murray, utilizing his ability to run between the tackles fairly effectively.
1C. Dallas has been RUNNING the ball on a near perfect 50/50 split because they've been winning. Teams have an exponentially higher tendency to run the ball when leading or within 7 points of the lead, than they do otherwise. Dallas hasn't had a whole heck of a lot of games this year where they've had to play from "way" behind.
1D. They've leaned on Romo year after year to win games. They've had years with solid run games, years without, and years with solid vertical games, the results in December have always been the same. He's not a solid December QB, and carries that burden heavily, as witnessed after last years' chicago trip.

2A. Don't ever attempt to discredit my knowledge of the game T3, I've actually played football!
2B. You bring up a point that I already posted about in this thread, thanks for reading. /sarcasm
2C. That TNF statistic includes all games whether they be short OR "long" weeks. It also includes teams coming out of bye's where they've had "long" weeks. It is also a historic statistic, which also includes the same discrepancies year after year. Further, it is a PRIME TIME game, at night, on a Thursday. This also have historic implications as well, namely to the home teams' advantage in the "12th man" scenario. Especially so this week with a Chicago team that is down, but not out of the playoffs yet.

3A. Soldier Field is a NATURAL GRASS field, which makes those conditions slippery. The cold (yes 30 is cold) combined with the humidity, will keep the field moist, and cold. It likely won't experience a freeze, so the ground will be soft and malleable, typical conditions for a December game in Chicago year after year. By the third quarter there will be a lot of mud and teams will likely switch to their "full size" cleats for their shoes. In doing so, players will run slower, and the "between the tackles" runs that will likely makeup a majority of this game, will allow both defenses to bring 8 men into the box, especially so against Dallas since they have no vertical passing game, and for all intents and purposes, should neutralize Dez Bryant in their offense ASIDE from quick throws and broken plays where the defenders will slip.

3B. That statistic you keep bringing up about Dallas from LAST year, is in large part influenced by Dallas' inability to create and KEEP a lead into the third and fourth quarters, as well as their game planning (those scripted drives the annoucners talk about to start the game) attempting to exploit Dez Bryant in coverage. Care to look at his stats from last year in the 1st and 2nd quarters to verify? You won't like what you see there. Furthermore, you're not going to see a Dallas team winning or leading a lot of its games in the first half of last year by more than a 7 point margin either. In fact, last season Dallas was one of the more higher scoring teams in the NFL despite going 8-8 on the season, because their schedule forced them to go up against opponents that have heavy, quick scoring pass attacks, like the Denver Broncos and Green Bay Packers. Ultimately skewing Dallas' play selections from Run to Pass. Furthermore, as stated already, when a team is winning, especially so by 7 or more, they have an exponentially higher rush to pass selection, Dallas wasn't doing that last year, as I've already explained, thus the large differential in Rush%.

3C. I understand football, and from what I gather, to a much, much higher degree and proficiency than you do, as evidenced by your posts here in this thread. As for the TWO scenarios where you've given a POST game comparison of teams rushing more than 50%, you can throw those statistics RIGHT OUT the door, as they AGAIN cater to the points that I've already made about teams leading and/or up by 7 or more running exponentially more. Furthermore, Miami and Buffalo both, from the AFC East, are built to RUN the ball, not pass it. Both teams are built with a run first mentality on offense, with giant, mammoth defensive fronts to slow the run and get after the quarterback. A large reason why they both boast some of the highest sack numbers in the NFL as well as some of the lowest Rushing Yards/per game allowed defensively. Though, both of those teams got a healthy dose of Jamaal Charles who is matchup-safe against just about any team in the league right now, so their numbers got inflated in what should have been much tighter run vs. rush defense matchups.

4A. In what world can we expect AT MOST 50% of the plays to be passes in this upcoming ROAD GAME on THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL, IN CHICAGO, from Dallas? Seriously T3, in what world? Despite the fact that the weather seems optimistic to maintain the 50/50 split, are you forgetting its December and its Tony Romo at QB? If this game goes "as expected" it'll be a "tight" game, forcing Tony Romo to PASS the ball. In all actuality, from a Chicago perspective, their GOAL is to get him to pass 60% and for them to run 40% or less. That's the expectation here.

4B. Romo doesn't call plays you idiot, he's not Garret or the offensive coordinator. Romo, like all NFL starters, have the ability to Audible the plays, but until there is 15 seconds left on the play clock, he's on the mic talking with his coach and coordinator while they relay in the plays to his helmet, and give him an "express" read so that he might easily check and audible into the "B" play. Again, Tony Romo DOES NOT CALL PLAYS. QB's DO NOT CALL PLAYS, even Peyton Manning doesn't call the plays, though to be honest, Peyton audibles and adjusts probably 85% of the plays relayed to him by the Coach and Coordinator.

4C. If YOU understood the game better, you wouldn't be sitting here arguing with me and bringing up skewed statistics that don't fucking matter in this discussion.


For the record, I expect Dallas to win this game simply because they NEED to win it to stay relevant to their divisional race against Philadelphia, however. I find it ludicrous that one could ASSUME that Dallas wins this on the road, in December, in chicago, by 7+ points.

If Dallas wins, it'll be by 6 or less points unless wild anomalies take part in this game, like Pick 6's, punt/kick returns for TD's, Defensive scoring, and otherwise.

What T3 doesn't understand, is that the points I bring up, are the exact points you're going to hear on the Thursday Night broadcast, the same statistics and "points" that get handicapped to show this game as a DAL -3.5 game, and not a DAL -7.5 game like T3 would suggest.

Is it possible that T3's prediction of Dallas by 7+ could be right? ABSOLUTELY, this is the NFL , anything could happen. But there's a reason EVERYBODY in the industry is calling this game EXACTLY as I've described it using the EXACT SAME STATISTICS I've brought up here.

And yet T3 implies that he knows more about the game, and I know nothing about it.

Interesting when the whole industry agrees with me T3, and says little to nothing about anything you've brought up.

But then again, nobody looks at the run/pass selection of an 8-4 team having already played SEVEN of its EIGHT home games, with 4 games to play.

Oh, you didn't think about that, did you? Silly T3.

[Three]

1C. Dallas has been RUNNING the ball on a near perfect 50/50 split because they've been winning. Teams have an exponentially higher tendency to run the ball when leading or within 7 points of the lead, than they do otherwise. Dallas hasn't had a whole heck of a lot of games this year where they've had to play from "way" behind.

Here is the quote of you stating that DAL is running because the get a lead and start running the ball. Yet their tendencies in away games since their new offensive strategy of run first has been to run 50% from the start of the game. Pass a lot in the second quarter when time is running out or often with a small lead and run at least 50% of the time when they are trying to catch up except when time is an issue. And of course running heavily with a big lead but only appropriately late in the game. Your long time historical trend that you are leaning on no longer describes the team that is playing this year. You again prove my point that you don't know what stats are worth note and what don't apply well to the current team.

I just brought up statistics that go BEYOND this season, giving more historical reference than you have, and Math Demon just verified and backed almost all of them up, against what you've said.

I looked at the long historic trend and decided it doesn't describe the team that will play on TNF. I gave the stats for every away game in great detail for this season which 100% confirms my conclusion but you still can't get shed of relying on dated stats. Only dated because the offense has changed too much from the period the stats represent. If you don't understand these things you just go with stats that no longer apply. If you do you look at historic stats and can tell if they still apply, apply more due to team changes or are of little relevance due to team changes.

What is even more ANNOYING is that you keep bringing up pass/run selection as some kind of "fact", yet IGNORE the points already brought up by me, validating the statistics, but diverging the "reasoning" of those statistics you seem so proud of.

It is a fact that that is the DAL tendencies and run/pass play choices for every away game with the score and quarter being given so the play selection would have the highest degree of context. You lean on history but try to say the fact of this year's team history is not a fact. That is baffling poor logic that an arguer would bring in. I had a pretty good idea of what the results would be but sometimes I am surprised. Not this time. The results of the facts of what plays DAL called in what parts of the game and what the score was fit my description about as much as could be expected.

the rating system gets its power from people that can't understand what I am talking about continuing to bet historic trends when they no longer apply. It blindly picks all games before the season starts based on the final 52 man rosters change from last year. With the right ratings it is well above 60% every year for decades. The announcers and sports talk show hosts will misuse historic data that doesn't apply to the new team and drive a line that is out of whack.

Run first offense or not, and they actually aren't, they've been relying on the run heavily this year to mask the issues in their vertical passing game, as well as the switch to the zone blocking scheme with Murray, utilizing his ability to run between the tackles fairly effectively.

Romo is on pace for a career year in most passing categories. Either you think DAL never had a passing game or you think they no longer have one. Both are wrong. Most great passers don't throw deep until the opponents adjust to stop short to medium passes giving them the deep ball. Perhaps Romo can't throw deep now because of back issues like Peyton couldn't throw more than 30 yards in one recent year. If true that doesn't make either team less effective. Peyton almost made the SB that year with no defense and no vertical game (assuming you mean deep pass). The idea that a vertical game is necessary makes your position seem foolish. The Ravens won the SB with Dilfer throwing only short ball control passes and running until the SB. Then the NYG adjusted to stop their preferred pass game the Ravens used all year and the Ravens successfully threw deep the rest of SB. Don't confuse not needing desperation passes for not being able to do them (rookie mistake). A smart team fields their best approach as a team. How the defense plays will change the offensive game plan. You are confusing an effective team attack for what an offense is capable of.

As for the CHI game. CHI has a big injury cluster in their D backfield. One injury can affect a team but having a whole section of your defense affected by injury is really tough to deal with. One key starter out and several playing hurt enough to be unsure they will play. Even a bad team could exploit that hole in the defense. I like to check stats before posting (something you should do) but LB Briggs out for season Nov 23 (still among team leaders in defensive stats), LB Sharpton out this game (backup), CB Jennings playing with groin injury (likely aggravated on a slick surface and among leaders in defensive stats), Safety Conte eye inury (among team leaders in defensive stats)and DT with knee injury along with some DE backups. It should be easy for DAL to both run and pass.

Another thing your historic facts fail to take into consideration is DAL schedule in December. They usually play tough division rivals and traditional playoff contenders. DAL is a big market team and the NFL wants interesting and meaningful games for them in December. If you understand all about football you would get this marketing angle as well. It has a bearing on how to apply the historic stats particularly in this weeks game because this CHI team doesn't fit the mold in its current state. This years December CHI team is an outlier when it comes to DAL December games. CHI is out of the playoff picture, hobbled and a shell of it's usual team playing for draft pick status. DAL DEC schedule:
2010:
12/5 @ IND; In playoffs 3 of 4 previous seasons
12/12 PHI; Division rival and in playoffs 3 of 4 previous seasons
12/19 WAS; Division rival and of previous seasons
12/25 AZ; In the playoffs the previous 2 seasons.
1/2 ? @ PHI; Division rival and in the playoffs 3 of 4 previous seasons

2011:
12/4 @ AZ; In playoffs 2 or 4 previous years
12/11 NYG; Division rival
12/17 @ TB; In playoffs 1 of 4 previous years
12/24 PHI; Division rival and in playoffs 3 previous years.
1/1 ? @ NYG; Division rival and in playoffs 3 of the 4 previous years

2012:
12/2 PHI; Division rival and in playoffs 3 of the 4 previous years
12/9 @ CIN; In playoffs 2 of the previous 4 years
12/16 PIT; in playoffs 3 of previous 4 seasons
12/23 NO; In playoffs 3 of the previous 4 seasons
12/30 WAS; Division rival

2013:
12/9 @ CHI; In playoffs 1 of 4 previous seasons
12/15 GB; In playoffs the 4 previous seasons
12/22 @ WAS; Division rival and in playoffs the previous season
12/ 29 PHI; Division rival and in playoffs the 4 previous seasons

Now we look at CHI this year. A broken team out of the playoff picture only having made the playoffs once in the last 4 seasons, 4 seasons ago. Not a division rival. Needing to draft a top QB in the next 2 years to replace Cutler at QB or find a replacement from the pool of veteran castoffs making jockeying for a better draft choice a better option than playing out its meager playoff chances until they dry up (10th seed needing to jump 4 teams in 4 weeks gaining 3 games on the leader is not likely, almost impossible. Then looking at tie breakers they are 4-4 in the conference, worst in the 10 teams in the playoff hunt). This team is an outlier among teams that make up the historic stats you are leaning on. So not only should we dismiss the historic stats because DAL has a totally different offensive game plan (for whatever reason) but the stats should also be thrown out because CHI is an outlier from the teams that DAL play to compile the historic stats.

So from both sides of the matchup the historic stats don't apply. You claim a knowledge of the game but a players knowledge alone is totally insufficient when trying to use statistics to predict the future. Statistics must be put into context and rated on how applicable they are to the game being considered. You always seem to fail to vet your stats and just use each stat like it is equally valuable in every situation. This is not the case.

The Windy City is not going to be windy. It is going to be a kickoff temperature of 36 degrees at game time, overcast skies will be holding the days heat in throughout the game, SSE winds very light for Chicago at around 10 MPH, 60% humidity and 0% chance of rain. Even the weather is making historic @ CHI December game stats of lesser value. I wouldn't put it far from the norm though but much of history was much colder for December games in CHI.

[Exoter175]

Here is the quote of you stating that DAL is running because the get a lead and start running the ball. Yet their tendencies in away games since their new offensive strategy of run first has been to run 50% from the start of the game. Pass a lot in the second quarter when time is running out or often with a small lead and run at least 50% of the time when they are trying to catch up except when time is an issue. And of course running heavily with a big lead but only appropriately late in the game. Your long time historical trend that you are leaning on no longer describes the team that is playing this year. You again prove my point that you don't know what stats are worth note and what don't apply well to the current team.


I looked at the long historic trend and decided it doesn't describe the team that will play on TNF. I gave the stats for every away game in great detail for this season which 100% confirms my conclusion but you still can't get shed of relying on dated stats. Only dated because the offense has changed too much from the period the stats represent. If you don't understand these things you just go with stats that no longer apply. If you do you look at historic stats and can tell if they still apply, apply more due to team changes or are of little relevance due to team changes.


It is a fact that that is the DAL tendencies and run/pass play choices for every away game with the score and quarter being given so the play selection would have the highest degree of context. You lean on history but try to say the fact of this year's team history is not a fact. That is baffling poor logic that an arguer would bring in. I had a pretty good idea of what the results would be but sometimes I am surprised. Not this time. The results of the facts of what plays DAL called in what parts of the game and what the score was fit my description about as much as could be expected.

the rating system gets its power from people that can't understand what I am talking about continuing to bet historic trends when they no longer apply. It blindly picks all games before the season starts based on the final 52 man rosters change from last year. With the right ratings it is well above 60% every year for decades. The announcers and sports talk show hosts will misuse historic data that doesn't apply to the new team and drive a line that is out of whack.
Romo is on pace for a career year in most passing categories. Either you think DAL never had a passing game or you think they no longer have one. Both are wrong. Most great passers don't throw deep until the opponents adjust to stop short to medium passes giving them the deep ball. Perhaps Romo can't throw deep now because of back issues like Peyton couldn't throw more than 30 yards in one recent year. If true that doesn't make either team less effective. Peyton almost made the SB that year with no defense and no vertical game (assuming you mean deep pass). The idea that a vertical game is necessary makes your position seem foolish. The Ravens won the SB with Dilfer throwing only short ball control passes and running until the SB. Then the NYG adjusted to stop their preferred pass game the Ravens used all year and the Ravens successfully threw deep the rest of SB. Don't confuse not needing desperation passes for not being able to do them (rookie mistake). A smart team fields their best approach as a team. How the defense plays will change the offensive game plan. You are confusing an effective team attack for what an offense is capable of.

As for the CHI game. CHI has a big injury cluster in their D backfield. One injury can affect a team but having a whole section of your defense affected by injury is really tough to deal with. One key starter out and several playing hurt enough to be unsure they will play. Even a bad team could exploit that hole in the defense. I like to check stats before posting (something you should do) but LB Briggs out for season Nov 23 (still among team leaders in defensive stats), LB Sharpton out this game (backup), CB Jennings playing with groin injury (likely aggravated on a slick surface and among leaders in defensive stats), Safety Conte eye inury (among team leaders in defensive stats)and DT with knee injury along with some DE backups. It should be easy for DAL to both run and pass.

Another thing your historic facts fail to take into consideration is DAL schedule in December. They usually play tough division rivals and traditional playoff contenders. DAL is a big market team and the NFL wants interesting and meaningful games for them in December. If you understand all about football you would get this marketing angle as well. It has a bearing on how to apply the historic stats particularly in this weeks game because this CHI team doesn't fit the mold in its current state. This years December CHI team is an outlier when it comes to DAL December games. CHI is out of the playoff picture, hobbled and a shell of it's usual team playing for draft pick status. DAL DEC schedule:
2010:
12/5 @ IND; In playoffs 3 of 4 previous seasons
12/12 PHI; Division rival and in playoffs 3 of 4 previous seasons
12/19 WAS; Division rival and of previous seasons
12/25 AZ; In the playoffs the previous 2 seasons.
1/2 ? @ PHI; Division rival and in the playoffs 3 of 4 previous seasons

2011:
12/4 @ AZ; In playoffs 2 or 4 previous years
12/11 NYG; Division rival
12/17 @ TB; In playoffs 1 of 4 previous years
12/24 PHI; Division rival and in playoffs 3 previous years.
1/1 ? @ NYG; Division rival and in playoffs 3 of the 4 previous years

2012:
12/2 PHI; Division rival and in playoffs 3 of the 4 previous years
12/9 @ CIN; In playoffs 2 of the previous 4 years
12/16 PIT; in playoffs 3 of previous 4 seasons
12/23 NO; In playoffs 3 of the previous 4 seasons
12/30 WAS; Division rival

2013:
12/9 @ CHI; In playoffs 1 of 4 previous seasons
12/15 GB; In playoffs the 4 previous seasons
12/22 @ WAS; Division rival and in playoffs the previous season
12/ 29 PHI; Division rival and in playoffs the 4 previous seasons

Now we look at CHI this year. A broken team out of the playoff picture only having made the playoffs once in the last 4 seasons, 4 seasons ago. Not a division rival. Needing to draft a top QB in the next 2 years to replace Cutler at QB or find a replacement from the pool of veteran castoffs making jockeying for a better draft choice a better option than playing out its meager playoff chances until they dry up (10th seed needing to jump 4 teams in 4 weeks gaining 3 games on the leader is not likely, almost impossible. Then looking at tie breakers they are 4-4 in the conference, worst in the 10 teams in the playoff hunt). This team is an outlier among teams that make up the historic stats you are leaning on. So not only should we dismiss the historic stats because DAL has a totally different offensive game plan (for whatever reason) but the stats should also be thrown out because CHI is an outlier from the teams that DAL play to compile the historic stats.

So from both sides of the matchup the historic stats don't apply. You claim a knowledge of the game but a players knowledge alone is totally insufficient when trying to use statistics to predict the future. Statistics must be put into context and rated on how applicable they are to the game being considered. You always seem to fail to vet your stats and just use each stat like it is equally valuable in every situation. This is not the case.

The Windy City is not going to be windy. It is going to be a kickoff temperature of 36 degrees at game time, overcast skies will be holding the days heat in throughout the game, SSE winds very light for Chicago at around 10 MPH, 60% humidity and 0% chance of rain. Even the weather is making historic @ CHI December game stats of lesser value. I wouldn't put it far from the norm though but much of history was much colder for December games in CHI.

I'm going to stop you right here.

You brought up their away games, where they are 5-0 on the road, winning games = running the ball. It doesn't attest to their ability to run the ball nearly as much as it attests to the FACT that teams that are winning, run the ball more to eat up the clock. Simple as that.

Spare me the mile fucking long posts T3, every comparison, argument, statistical bit of information you bring up, attests to the SIMPLE points I've brought up thusfar in this thread. They DO NOT validate your overdrawn, lengthy posts ANYMORE than they validate my SIMPLE points of emphasis based on HISTORICAL FACT.

Try and argue as you might, but you're going against an INDUSTRY of which I am sourcing and siting my points and posts from.

By all means, continue to talk about how 50/50 teams win more because of X or Y reason, but the reason Dallas is 50/50 right now is because A. They have been winning and B. They have no vertical attack, which is exactly why this year TONY ROMO IS BELOW AVERAGE ON DPI CALLS.

[Exoter175]

Again, to anybody betting the DAL @ CHI game, I urge you to consider that a "hands off" game unless you're in a survivors pool "must play" game, or if you're just a really big Chicago or Dallas fan.

If there were letter grades for this matchup on Thursday, this one would come in at a solid D-.

EDIT: And if you're in a confidence pick'em league, this game should be bottom 3 or 4 for week 14.

[Math Demon]

Exoter, let's not call each other names.

If you make your posts personal, readers will NOT be able distinguish whether you're FOR a certain opinion (in this case, DAL will not cover), or just AGAINST Tthree.

2. Dallas is the ROAD team on TNF giving them ~38.6% chance of winning this game, historically.

True! Since 2009 (5+ seasons), road teams playing on Thursday are just 31-46-0 (40.3%) S/U and 37-39-1 (48.7%) ATS.
HOWEVER, since 2009 (5+ seasons), road favorites playing on Thursday (like DAL) are 19-11-0 (63.3%) S/U and 15-15-0 (50.0%) ATS.

Tony Romo is something like 12-18 in December as the Cowboys' starting QB.

Since 2006, the Cowboys are a dreadful 16-21 in the month of December/January, with Romo going 13-18 (.419) as the team's starter. What makes this stat more mystifying is that the very same QB now stands at a 26-6 (.812) career record over the month of November.

But each year's team is different because of different personnel and coaching staff. This year's Cowboys have a better running game, O-Line, and Defense than last year.

DAL probably needs to win 3 of the last 4 games to make the playoffs. 3 of the last 4 are on the road where they are 5-0. The first of those road games is the TNF game at CHI.
__

While we're in the subject of stats... DAL is just 6-6 ATS. Its ATS losses are vs PHI(D 9-3), ARZ (C 9-3), SFO (C 7-5), HOU (6-6), NYG (D 3-9), WAS (D 3-9). Its ATS wins are vs SEA (C 8-4), NO (C 5-7), STL (C 5-7), NYG (D 3-9), TEN (2-10), JAX(2-10)

CHI (C 5-7), an NFC team with a sub-.500 record logically should fall into the second list.
__

Another thing to consider: DAL is just 6-6 ATS and 6-5-1 OU; but when DAL does COVER, 5 out of 6 times, they go OVER.

Again, to anybody betting the DAL @ CHI game, I urge you to consider that a "hands off" game.

I am actually more optimistic than Tthree, believing that the Cowboys will have a margin of victory in the double-digits. The Cowboys usually run the first couple of plays "to establish the run". RB Murray leads the league in rushing yards and ypg, you've already established the run! What I think they actually need is to establish an effective passing attack and gain a huge lead early.


Having said all that, there are 15 other games in Week 14. Anyone who has doubts about the outcome of this game should wait until Sunday.



D = Division, C = Conference

[Math Demon]

Another thing to consider: DAL is just 6-6 ATS and 6-5-1 OU; but when DAL does COVER, 5 out of 6 times, they go OVER.

Scenario 1:
When DAL covers (ATS-W), 5 of 6 times they go OVER (83%).
When CHI does NOT cover (ATS-L), 5 of 7 times they go OVER (71%).


Scenario 2:
When DAL does NOT cover (ATS-L), 5 of 6 times they push (17%) or go UNDER (67%) = 83%.
When CHI covers (ATS-W), 4 of 5 times they push (20%) or go UNDER (60%) = 80%.


On the books to which I have access, the spreads are DAL-3 / OU 51, CHI+4 / OU 51.5


So ... the choices seem to clear:
DAL - 3 and Over 51.0 (IF you think DAL will cover)
CHI + 4 and Under 51.5 (IF you think CHI will cover)



* There are 15 other games in Week 14. Anyone who has doubts about the outcome of this game should wait for Sunday's games.

[Exoter175]

This week:

1. CHI @ DET 47.5 Take the Under
2. PHI @ DAL 55.5 Take the Under
3. SEA @ SF 39.5 Take the Over
4. DEN @ KC 50 Take the Over
5. NO @ Pit 53.5 Take the Under

Super special extra awesome pick NE @ GB Take the Under

A ton of really great matchups this week that grade out realllllly close to their lines. Not expecting a solid week this week, but its Thanksgiving! I'm going to be too fat to move here in a few hours haha.

What did I go last week? 3-2? So that puts my official blackjack forum record at 8-7 for the year, hoping to improve upon that but so many close games that should go almost exactly as predicted. We shall see!

HAPPY THANKSGIVING EVERYONE!!!!!!!!!

[Exoter175]

This week:

1. CHI @ DET 47.5 Take the Under
2. PHI @ DAL 55.5 Take the Under
3. SEA @ SF 39.5 Take the Over
4. DEN @ KC 50 Take the Over
5. NO @ Pit 53.5 Take the Under

Super special extra awesome pick NE @ GB Take the Under

A ton of really great matchups this week that grade out realllllly close to their lines. Not expecting a solid week this week, but its Thanksgiving! I'm going to be too fat to move here in a few hours haha.

What did I go last week? 3-2? So that puts my official blackjack forum record at 8-7 for the year, hoping to improve upon that but so many close games that should go almost exactly as predicted. We shall see!

HAPPY THANKSGIVING EVERYONE!!!!!!!!!

Last week sucked, that's what I get for picking Thanksgiving/TNF games.

Went 2-4 last week, which brings me to 10-11 on the the BJ forum this year on O/U picks, hopefully we can head in the right direction this week.

1. KC @ ARI 40.5 take the Over
2. NE @ SD 51.5 take the Over
3. CAR @ NO 49.5 take the Under
4. TB @ DET 41.5 take the Over
5. PIT @ CIN 47 take the Under

I generally try to stay away from Pittsburgh as an O/U pick, but in a division game against the Bengals where both teams matchup fairly well in the strength vs. strength categories, and not so well in the Weakness vs. Weakness categories, I like the game. I believe it'll be a really tight game within a 2 or 3 point margin on either side of the line, but I believe this has the potential to be one of the lower scoring "in the hunt" contests this week.

[Exoter175]

Last week sucked, that's what I get for picking Thanksgiving/TNF games.

Went 2-4 last week, which brings me to 10-11 on the the BJ forum this year on O/U picks, hopefully we can head in the right direction this week.

1. KC @ ARI 40.5 take the Over
2. NE @ SD 51.5 take the Over
3. CAR @ NO 49.5 take the Under
4. TB @ DET 41.5 take the Over
5. PIT @ CIN 47 take the Under

Wooooooooooweeeee did I get smoked this week, Even though the Patriots game is still going right now, I'm going to assume that I've lost it, I don't see 25 points being scored in the 4th quarter of this one.

Man, who saw Cam Newton and Carolina finally having a productive offensive day today? Answer: Absolutely nobody, though we've all been waiting for Cam to get back to being Cam. I've seen him floating around in FFL's as a free agent a lot this year, which has never been the case before.

Absolutely SMOKED FFL's this week going 6-0, and 54-0 against all teams in those leagues, bringing my YTD numbers to 60-24 record, 594-162 against all teams. Rather, I will have when Tuesday comes since we still have to play MNF and finish this SNF game before it goes effective.

Doing the "happy" dance right now, as I've made the playoffs in all 6 leagues for the 3rd straight year (this time as the #1 and #2 seeds, depending on leagues), looking to go back to back to back x2 as champion, and one league as back to back champion.

Happy days!

[Three]

I wouldn't be so sure you can count on RGIII not playing. The Redskins invested so much in getting him and they are pretty much out of the playoff picture. He made them believe they finally found their QB for the next 10 years before his injury. Unless it is a health issue or they want to protect or increase the trade value of some QBs (they have 3 pretty good ones) I think RGIII is their likely choice. One thing is for sure, their choice will not be based on who gives them the best chance to win the game. It will be either to audition other QBs for trade possibilities or to decide if they do have their QB of the future if they have given up on RGIII. The latter is your best hope for seeing Colt. He hasn't had much playing time and looked pretty good for the small amount of time he was at the helm of the Redskins' offense. I hope you are right that Colt will play. I think it will make for the most interesting game.

Sometimes decisions made by a team are not about fielding the best team. They have a product to market off the field. With the name controversy hurting those profits a hair the revenue RGIII brought in for product marketing had him in the starting role when he may have been better of healing. A tam has value by it's product on the field, ticket sales and broadcast marketing, and product marketing. Different teams place a different value on each of these things. Fans want to believe it is all about fielding the best team but that is often not the primary motivation for a teams roster decisions.

As for the Redskins this week, time will tell. I hope we get to see Colt under center but it is not up to me. Has there been any indication from the Redskins as to what they are planning? Usually teams like to keep opponents guessing.