Score, NO etc

[Bodarc]

Today I played a 2D game H17, DOA, DAS, NS, NRA Cut was approx 46 to 48 out. I used 48 on CVCX. My minimum was $10 and spread 15 or up to 2 x $75. I had simmed this on CVCX and came up with SCORE of 52 and NO of 19266.

Here is my quandary. On CVCX you can Wong out at a certain count such as -1 or -2 etc. I am not able to Wong out with such regularity, however, in 45 minutes of play, I did Wong out twice when my true count ran to -6 or -8 right at the first of the game (That would be about -3 or -4 TC with Hi Lo).

How can I determine my SCORE, NO, etc or get a good estimate when I can only Wong out say 1/3 of the time the TC drops below a certain number?

[bigplayer]

Set your exit point lower (more negative) so that the frequency of your table departures matches your desired rate. If you feel like you need to play all 95% of the time, set a negative exit point that skips only 5% of the hands.

[Bodarc]

Thanks Bigplayer

[Bodarc]

Here is what I came up with if you'll check my logic:
Hands per hour 100
3/4 Hour = 75 Hands Played

Total Cards 104
Cards Cut 48
Cards Dealt 56
2 Players = 3 X 2.7 Cards 8.1 Cards per round
56/8.1 = 7 Rounds per deck (6.913 so 7th round started before cut card)
75 Rounds/7 Rounds per Deck 11 Decks played (rounded from 10.7)
Decks Wonged 2
Percent played 81.82%

Ran new sim with counts to -10 and found Wong at true count of -4 had me playing 83% of hands
Score 61.84 NO 16,171

If my logic is correct, I will milk this game.

[Bodarc]

Well this won't be exactly right because I am sitting out the entire remaining deck and some of the counts I am sitting out will be above -4 and some may even be positive before the end of the shoe. So I will just estimate it to be somewhere between 52 and 62 SCORE ....... say 57 and NO the same .....17,500 unless someone has a better theory.

[Blitzkrieg]

What kind of results did you end up with in live play after you finished your session since you simmed the game you had in mind before you played?

[Bodarc]

Well Blitz, that brings up a 2 weird storys.

I first went to a different casino where I have been having some good luck after about a month of one good loss and several small losses or break evens. There was not ONE person at the bj tables in the afternoon. There was a 6D game open so I sat down. The deck was 1/3 already dealt. I asked for a shuffle and she asked the floor about it and he said his boss would be on his tail if he allowed it. I said ahhh no big problem then, don't worry about it and I just sat there. She asked if I was going to play and I said undoubtedly, you broke someone with that shoe or they wouldn't have left so I don't want to play a deck that just broke someone (just an excuse to get a shuffle). So, I just sat at the table, smoked a cig and didn't play. In a few I said I think I'll go find a fresh shoe somewhere else and got up and left.

So I went to this other casino where I had done well Sunday and there was this 2D game that I have been playing. As Bigplayer says "When you're hot your hot" and this is how it started out. Playing heads up and I hit every single big bet and double down on big bets etc one right after the other. Then up walked the 'drug dealer' as I call him. He bought in for 1,000 which was all 20's. Started out betting 2 x 250 per hand and lost that in about 10 or 15 min and I was still hitting and pocketing chips left and right. He bought in for 800, again all 20's and that lasted about 10 or 15 min because he started betting 2x500 or so and he bought in for another 1000. This buy in had a few hundreds mixed in with it but it was still mostly all 20's. Couple of times right off the bat the count went very low so I made an excuse and left the table and let him play alone. Then I made a couple of index plays he didn't like and he said I was ruining the flow of the cards (even though he was betting 2x500 off the top and standing on 13 V 10 and never splitting or doubling anything except 10, 11 or a 9 v 3. Pit was standing there watching but paying no attention to me at all, they were just watching him so I just kept spreading. He made one more comment and I had been there 45 min and thought, this is a good time for me to excuse myself, so I colored up and left.

Last night when I was trying to figure out how to sim partial Wongs, I plugged in my win on CVCX and the odds of it happening was 6.7% so it was a very good day and just luck to have a streak that hot.

[bigplayer]

I don't think you'll be able to get away with that type of strategy very long as you'll be exiting the table pretty frequently, practically every other shuffle. The game you're describing is terrible though and the only way to beat it is by playing it like a shoe game and almost always virtually heads up or the cut card effect will crush you. The key round to skip will be the last 1 or 2 rounds in negative counts (particularly that extra round that you get due to the cut card effect).

[Bodarc]

If you play heads up, you can't Wong out because they don't shuffle when you return. I like 1 other player at the table. All the bj games around this part of the country are terrible and only large spreads can make it worthwhile. If there is another player, I can think of lots of reasons to skip out but still can't do it with every count, that's why I was trying to find some way to sim to give an approximate SCORE etc.

[moo321]

If you play heads up, you can't Wong out because they don't shuffle when you return. I like 1 other player at the table. All the bj games around this part of the country are terrible and only large spreads can make it worthwhile. If there is another player, I can think of lots of reasons to skip out but still can't do it with every count, that's why I was trying to find some way to sim to give an approximate SCORE etc.

You can wong out, you just can't come back to the same table. Important distinction.

[moo321]

My general thoughts on wong-outs: do it. If you play shoes, you have to do it sometimes. It's good for EV, great for risk aversion.

That said, if you get up 3 shoes in a row, that won't look right most of the time. But leaving one shoe every hour or two is a good idea.

[Bodarc]

Right Moo

I left 2 shoes in 45 minutes and didn't have a problem perhaps because they were so occupied with the other player. I agree you have to use a little logic when trying to Wong out on 2D and not over do it.

[Three]

If it is NMSE they have to shuffle if you leave when playing heads up.