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Thread: Variance per strategy decision:

  1. 08-27-2014, 05:17 PM #1
    AnzaExo
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    Variance per strategy decision:

    After reviewing the EV tables in the appendix of Schlesinger's book, I was wondering if there were tables that showed the variance per decision. For instance, we know the EV of splitting 9s vs a 2 is .148087 on a 6D H17 game, but what is the variance of this play (in relation to standing for example)? Is this information available through one of Norm's products? Perhaps a book?


    Thank you!
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  2. 08-27-2014, 05:22 PM #2
    Norm
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    CVData when doing index generation calcualtes this, but doesn't bother displaying it as I've never seen a reason. More valuable is the charts on EV by count, or the RA index.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse
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  3. 08-27-2014, 05:39 PM #3
    Three
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    You would be able to see the gain in accuracy (shrinking of the decision bell curve width) from side counts for various decisions.
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  4. 08-27-2014, 10:49 PM #4
    AnzaExo
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    I understand, I was referring more to the variance for a fresh or infinite deck. If anyone would happen to know where to find this data I would really appreciate it .
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  5. 08-28-2014, 05:19 AM #5
    Bodarc
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    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jCF-...iUIv7U_CJcyLQw
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  6. 08-28-2014, 05:25 AM #6
    Bodarc
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    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wJsG...iUIv7U_CJcyLQw
    Play within your bankroll, pick your games with care and learn everything you can about the game. The winning will come. It has to. It's in the cards. -- Bryce Carlson
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  7. 08-28-2014, 03:48 PM #7
    AnzaExo
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    I looked through the videos and saw no mention of variance or std dev, is there a way to calculate it from the data in the video?
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  8. 08-28-2014, 07:23 PM #8
    AnzaExo
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    in post #7 of the following link, iCountNTrack gives the SD for a particular play, how is it calculated? I would like to run the same calculation for other double and split situations to find which options offer the best risk-adjusted returns for when large bets are placed.



    http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=23132


    "The EV of hitting is 0.120803495385 ± 0.935247682187
    And EV of doubling is 0.174427797338 ± 1.90495414525"
    Last edited by AnzaExo; 08-28-2014 at 07:25 PM.
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  9. 08-29-2014, 07:36 AM #9
    Nyne
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    iCountNTrack wrote his own custom combinatorial analysis software that calculates the EV and SD of each play for a given deck composition. You can download it here: http://code.google.com/p/blackjack-c...rial-analyzer/
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  10. 08-29-2014, 07:54 AM #10
    AnzaExo
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    Thank you so much! I'm going to look through that when I get home.
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  11. 08-30-2014, 08:54 AM #11
    txlouder
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nyne View Post
    iCountNTrack wrote his own custom combinatorial analysis software that calculates the EV and SD of each play for a given deck composition. You can download it here: http://code.google.com/p/blackjack-c...rial-analyzer/
    Thanks!

    Unless I made a mistake -- quite possible -- the source code for this has disappeared from the repository. Or perhaps it was never made available.

    Does anyone (e.g., iCountNTrack) know if the source code is available?

    -TX
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  12. 08-30-2014, 12:28 PM #12
    AnzaExo
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    Quote Originally Posted by txlouder View Post
    Thanks!

    Unless I made a mistake -- quite possible -- the source code for this has disappeared from the repository. Or perhaps it was never made available.

    Does anyone (e.g., iCountNTrack) know if the source code is available?

    -TX
    If you download the file folder you will see there is a GtCore4.dll and QtGui4.dll, I'm not sure if that's the information you're looking for; I am unfortunately finding some errors in calculation though. for instance, using the program a 8-5 Vs Ace on a 6D H17 provides an EV of -.609222 for hitting, where the EV numbers for other applications are much different (-.433 for BJA3 for instance). There are other EV errors as well, so I am afraid I can't really use the SD figures from the program... my search continues.
    Last edited by AnzaExo; 08-30-2014 at 12:34 PM.
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  13. 08-30-2014, 12:57 PM #13
    DSchles
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    Not an error. The discrepancy undoubtedly comes from whether or not the dealer has already checked his ace for a natural or not. The program that shows -.609 is allowing the dealer to have a natural; BJA3 assumes the dealer has already checked and has a playable ace.

    You shouldn't find any discrepancies in the program for dealer upcards 2-9. Do you?

    Don
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