Been there. It's irritating when the count goes super high and I get frequent 16's. It especially sucks when you are backcounting and waiting for something to happen. Back in July, I was doing just that. I sat down and got nothing but hard hands for the rest of the shoe. 16's are especially bad because I often have to take insurance. I can imagine a pit boss seeing this and saying in his head "Taking insurance on a 16? That's just stupid, unless........"Originally Posted by Exoter175
That's a great way to look at it! It helps tame the emotions.
Interestingly, ploppies do the same thing. Each day is new. If they have a big win, they get all excited despite the fact that they have lost much much more in the past. They may have lost $8,000 for the year and they get all excited about a $300 win.
I relate to the OP. It feels like that sometime. I use these occasions when on a losing streak to mutter stuff like changing cards by going to two hands or, if the Pit is close, telling everyone to "let him cut" or play a tip for dealer and get pit to think of me as a player who is superstitious.
for me, it seems like my first few hands tell if I am going to have a good or bad session. If I start good, I stay ahead and if I fall behind, seems like inevitable that I will lose. I know it's not the case but it appears that way.
Yesterday I was playing my usual 6D game at a local store through a pretty neutral shoe when suddenly the count took off and just sat there at TC5-TC6 all the way through the rest of the shoe. I literally won a single hand for the duration. Dealer had about 9 20's, drew out to 21 4 times, had BJ 3 times, it was literally tearing at my soul. I know I'm playing with the advantage, I know the expectations, I know the variance in play, even then, I burned through a whole hell of a lot of money to finish that shoe. I lost like 6 double downs in the process at the upper range of my spread (not super max thankfully) and just got wrecked.
It sucks, but on the same end, I've seen variance in play when I've played through a shoe at TC-1 to TC2 and lost maybe two hands murdering the table on a smaller spread.
What keeps me going every time is just the notion that at the end of the day after all is said and done, I'm maybe going to play all of my hours at what would account to a 1% advantage over the house at best, so as long as I'm going through the motions, it'll all be fine. I'm still up quite a bit for the year, my w/l percentage is still very high, or what I expect to be very high for basically a "playall" approach with a modest WO bathroom break. It just sucks when you know you've got the house by the balls and you still come up short.
What really sucks is when you are winning like crazy through a max bet flurry and then you split to 4 hands on 1 spot and double 3 of the hands and double the hand on the other spot against a 5 and have the dealer hit out to 21 sweeping all 9 of your max bets and taking away all your winnings. You were sitting there with 19'2 and 20's at a ridiculous count and the dealer pulled a low card to reverse your fortune.
I've had (close to) both that and the inverse happen to me before I employed a "super max" into my game. I was playing 2x60 on the table. Hand 1 = 20, hand 2 = 8,8 vs. Dealer 6, TC6 if I recall right. Split out the 8's for a total play of 5x60, doubled all 4 8 splits 8/3, 8/3, 8/3, 8/2 to make 3x21's and 2x20's of my 5 total hands. $540 on the table. Dealer flipped over a 5 and I shit my pants on the spot. Next card was Ace, then Queen. I proceeded to take my winnings and find myself to the bathroom. I didn't actually soil myself, but my heart about beat out of my chest.
On the other end, I recently split 9's against dealer 6. Split it out 4 times, received 19, 19, 9/2 doubled to 18, 9/2 doubled to 19, TC4 I believe. Dealer went 6, 5, 10, like clockwork. Cleaned me out good and hard that night, and that same motion (the taking of my chips) happened all night in some truly positive counts.
Despite my miracle shoe where I went like 7 straight hands with a 21 or blackjack in a deeply positive count a few months back, or my 4x double on split 8's for 21's a little after that. I'll have to say that my all time favorite hand that I've played so far, was in a super deep unicorn of a count RC was +20's with less than a deck to play in a 5/6 pen. Split to 2x150 and received two blackjacks with a dealer ace showing. I didn't get a chance to even contemplate what was going on before the dealer had closed insurance, checked, and paid me. (the lady dealer I've spoken about who is super fast).
My most unfavorable hand was yesterday afternoon, had a pretty deep count and couldn't finish the shoe because I ran out of money. It had happened once before and I started bringing a lot more with me to the casino, but for some reason I didn't yesterday and I was kicking myself for not sticking to the plan and lost out on an opportunity. Thought watching how things unfolded yesterday and the last week or two, probably ended up saving myself some money lol.
I know variance sucks but I try not to get emotional about it since I don't over bet my bankroll. I win is a win and a loss is a loss. Sometimes when things are really bad at max counts, I will take my bet down or even walk away until the next shoe. It stops the losing streak and maybe the pit will think Im not a counter walking away from a + count
Ok, I have a side question on this that is related..........talking about good or bad tables..........or good or bad shoes. First off I know that the purpose of counting is to know when it's advantageous to increase your bets and change your playing strategy for index variations BUT that pre-supposes that high cards are actually coming out to bring down the increasing index/positive deck. Have any of you NOT experienced the frustration of getting a lot of good hands at the beginning of a deck, with the high cards "pouring" out, but since it's the start of the shoe or deck, your bets are at a minimum............and you don't raise them because the count keeps going DOWN BUT you are in a "clump" (and I know that's a bad word but accurate) of high cards. So you win more hands at a lower bet unit because the counts sucks. Any suggestions for this experience, knowing that it has happened enough to me to notice the situation?
"Women and cats will do as they please, and Men and dogs should just relax and get used to the idea" --- Robert A. Heinlein
There are really only 2 options... wong out or continue to play min bets. The clumps can't be predicted, but what can be predicted is playing negative counts will reduce the winrate.
edit: before I get jumped on by the STers, ordinarily the high card clumps can't be predicted
Last edited by ohbehave; 08-28-2014 at 07:07 PM.
A falling count favors the player on that hand. It is a high count round. If you get a blackjack and there are a couple T,T hands on the table with a few low cards with a high card and some neutral cards the RC change for the round is -4 for a RC shown on that round of +4 for 13 cards. That is a TC of +16 for the cards that are on the table if they were the only cards behind the cut card. You draw a hand at TC +16 you are likely to be ahead in the long run. Well you had a min bet out because you didn't know that was about to come out. If you had you would have bet max bet like a STer that knows that is coming. Round after round keeps lowering the RC. That round was a TC +16 round, that 0n was TC +4. With ~13 cards burned each round with 4 spots being played against the dealer. Each round the lowers the TC has a value of +4, +8, +12, +16 or etc if it were the only cards behind the cut card. You didn't know it was coming so you were betting min as the count predicted low cards.
All you can do is assume the TC will be representative of the cards on the next round. In a negative count you expect cards that are small more than large cards. If you knew the next round wouldn't be lots of low cards then you bet more than minimum despite the crappy count. It isn't easy to get that foreknowledge. You shouldn't entertain the idea that increasing your bet will increase EV without it. Now if you can afford cover trying to rearrange the flow of chips at low counts isn't a bad idea. The influx of high cards makes it a strong cover move. You might create some nice wins at the expense of EV. If you lose go back to betting minimum as the cover play is made. If you keep winning leave your bet up. The rub is when you get split and double opportunities. They are pretty weak opportunities for your bet size. You will lose more frequently than most bet of the same size. When you lose it is costing you multiple bets. As long as the count keeps falling you are playing unexpected +EV rounds. Meaning when you bet the round the count predicted disadvantage but the cards dealt on the round are expected from a plus EV shoe.
At this point you are just trying to get lucky because you can't see into the future when you make your bet. You can win or lose no matter what the count of the cards dealt in the round represent. But nice lucky streaks can pay for a lot of opposition betting shots that both make you look like a ploppy and make you look like you can't be counting. If you play at a level that needs cover or can spread more with the benefit of cover there is +EV generated away from the play of the round. If not you are just trying to get lucky with some -EV bets.
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