The "good" tables and the "bad" tables, no such thing right?

[counter19]

I am going to put myself out there and ask what is in all likelihood an incredibly stupid question. There have probably been multiple discussions about this on different boards in the past but they would be difficult to sift through. So let me get right to it.
We know that the ploppies believe in things like "the flow," and other garbage. However, I can't help but notice that as a general rule, when I play, I am either really hot or really not. I am either cleaning up on all my max bets or they are cleaning me out. The gambler expression "when you're hot, you're hot, and when you're not, you're not" really applies to me. I will continue to play when the count justifies it as other players flee from a table where we are all getting killed. I want to leave too, but I convince myself that it's just variance and continue to chug away. I will continue to get killed regardless of count. So it seems that the table is just crap. Conversely, when I am hot, I seem to stay hot, even after a shuffle. Shouldn't each shuffle be new? I play as if it is.
My question is, do any of you experience this on a continual basis? Is there somehow any mathematical reason whatsoever to explain why shuffle after shuffle is good or bad during a visit? I know of none. It makes no sense to me that things will consistently keep trending in a certain direction. In fact, I even WANT for each shuffle to be different because I know that I cannot win all night without being noticed and I would hate to leave a table that seems to be paying so well each and every shuffle. Likewise, I do not want to continue losing by playing at a table where I am thoroughly getting killed.
My theory is that somehow I am just letting my own humanity get to me. Maybe it's selective memory. After all, big losses and big wins are easier to remember than "back-and-forth" nights. However, I consider myself to be a logical person and I can think of very few times when I have simply gone back and forth on big bets. I certainly want to hear that there is no such thing as the phenomenon that I think that I am seeing. I want each shuffle to be new so I can just play my game without worrying about some other mathematical concept that I do not understand getting in the way.

[ohbehave]

You answered your question. Maybe you are just focusing too much on short term fluctuations. Try to be concerned with only whether you have an advantage or not. There will always be patterns that can be distinguished in your play history but they are meaningless since they can't be determined in advance.

[tiny]

It's just variance.

I'm definitely going through a "not hot" streak right now in which every game I play ends results in losing or (at best) breaking even. When I'm "hot" I buy in for $500 and win $15k

[Dieter]

Shouldn't each shuffle be new?

Yes, if it's a good shuffle. Were they good shuffles?

I see no particular reason to keep sitting in one place losing hand after hand after hand, however. If it hurts when you do that, don't do that.

How many other players at the table?.

[bigplayer]

When you're hot you're hot and when you're cold you're cold, except when you're luke warm and just breaking even

[Bodarc]

The biggest hit to my BR I ever had happened at a table where the dealer beat me all night long, and I wouldn't leave because the cut was 1/2 deck out of 6 and I could spread anything I wanted to. This was the last night of a casino closing.

[AnzaExo]

None of this is significant

[Exoter175]

It's just variance.

I'm definitely going through a "not hot" streak right now in which every game I play ends results in losing or (at best) breaking even. When I'm "hot" I buy in for $500 and win $15k

I had it going in July, it felt like I couldn't lose no matter where I sat. At the end of July things changed and August has been an almost unbearable month for me with as many times as I've been breaking even when I should be way ahead, and three astronomically bad losses in counts where a blind man could have milked a fortune, but I couldn't hit a double to save my life.

The biggest hit to my BR I ever had happened at a table where the dealer beat me all night long, and I wouldn't leave because the cut was 1/2 deck out of 6 and I could spread anything I wanted to. This was the last night of a casino closing.

I've had a few of those nights this month, they've been brutal despite the count and pen saying different.

[muffdiver]

The downswings really illustrate the importance of money management. If you've spent the "wins", you're screwed.

[ohbehave]

Along these same lines, a question for the more experienced players. We all know fluctuations are normal and they can be extreme, but aside from the numbers in a simulation do you get to where there is a certain range of fluctuation in your game that you more or less expect. I think I know the answer just interested in hearing from the experienced players.

At this early point in my counting career I go into each session (for that matter each round played) with the attitude that I am even. Previous sessions have no bearing on the current session. Does not matter if I won or lost down the street 30 minutes ago, the next time I play I'm starting even. *I have to credit that line of thought from an episode of Gambling with an Edge, thanks Bob, Richard, Frank, and Mike!

[muffdiver]

Along these same lines, a question for the more experienced players. We all know fluctuations are normal and they can be extreme, but aside from the numbers in a simulation do you get to where there is a certain range of fluctuation in your game that you more or less expect. I think I know the answer just interested in hearing from the experienced players.

At this early point in my counting career I go into each session (for that matter each round played) with the attitude that I am even. Previous sessions have no bearing on the current session. Does not matter if I won or lost down the street 30 minutes ago, the next time I play I'm starting even. *I have to credit that line of thought from an episode of Gambling with an Edge, thanks Bob, Richard, Frank, and Mike!

Your odds are the same each time you sit down (providing rules, pen, etc. are the same).
There is no "due" time for change.

[counter19]

Yes, if it's a good shuffle. Were they good shuffles?

I see no particular reason to keep sitting in one place losing hand after hand after hand, however. If it hurts when you do that, don't do that.

How many other players at the table?.

Yep. They're good shuffles.

All things being equal, I think it would be a good idea to leave a table when they shuffle or when the count goes negative if everybody else is getting burned too. It makes it look like I believe in the voodoo of "bad" tables. Nothing wrong with going to a new table (as long as the count isn't big) in order to make them think I believe in luck.

[counter19]

When you're hot you're hot and when you're cold you're cold, except when you're luke warm and just breaking even

But I can not remember a time where that has happened. If they're big bets, it's one or the other with me. If I am in a shoe where the count goes high, I am either going to finish it with a lot more or a lot less. At least, that's the way it has been unless I am just fooling myself, which is possible.
Regardless, I play the right way.