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Thread: Is Continued Shuffle Machine game plabable

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  2. #15
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    So you max out at RC +16 with 5.67 decks remaining. That's the highest the TC can get using this windows count. That is a TC of +2. The graph shows RC to +10 which is a TC of +1 (+12 >= RC >= +6 gives a TC of +1). You only get the combination of the 2 8% of the time. In reality you may never see TC +2. People actually consider using this? Seems like a losing proposition.

  3. #16


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    Never tried it T3, but i think people might be using it to get a small edge over the house only for casual players.
    The long run will probably kill you, unless your spread is huge, and you have a huge bankroll.

  4. #17
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    I am not sure table minimum to table maximum would be a big enough spread to get an advantage. AT TC +1 you barely have an advantage in the game described in the link. At 1000:1 spread 8% bets made at TC +1 with a player edge of 0.1% to 0.2%. After 0.2% the graph loses linearity indicating the counts above RC +7 are very rare. You make 11.5 disadvantage bets for every advantage bet. The house edge on average for the game in the link about 0.45% which would become even more in favor of the house without the TC +1 bets included. It probably isn't quite 0.5% but that is a nice round number so we will use it. You would lose about 1/2 a unit for the 11.5 bets made when not TC +1. That leaves about 1/2 unit profit for 12.5 bets as a very rough estimate. That is 4 units per 100 hands if you can find a table that has a max 1000 times the min.

    Reality is you are probably looking at 50:1 or 100:1 as the best you can find. That makes your expectation for the table max bet .05 to .1 units and the game negative EV at table min to max spread. There are some games that it is 1000:1 but the are rare and the idea of risking 1000 units when the game is basically an even game (Player edge 0.1% to 0.2%) is insane.

  5. #18


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    Agree T3, but there are other factor which might be considered, which can increase your edge little above 0.5%.

    1. Dealer collect the entire muck sometime it can be between 52-104 cards, which can leads the TC to increase up TC +3, ( in a real world environment 1%-5% of the time).
    2. Better game rule: Full Early surrender, split up to 4 Hands, S17.
    3. Early CSM with only 4 decks.

    Although i wouldn't play a CSM game from a counter perspective ,as you already mention it is to risky, huge variation ,not worth the time.

    For BS player it is probably different for the short time as you can flat bet and still have a certain edge.

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