And so will the losing hands. The EV will NOT change. You have not made one statement indicating how the EV can change.
The EV, or expectation, takes into account winning hands, losing hands, doubles, splits, insurance and blackjack. The total EV is negative. The EV times the bet equals the expected loss. When you bet twice as much, the EV remains exactly the same. So, the EV times the bet gives double the loss. Bet ten times as much, and you lose ten times as much. Yes, doubles will win ten times as much. But, lost hands will lose ten times as much too.
To win you must change the EV. You are doing nothing to change the EV. What you are saying is that merely betting more makes it more likely to win.
"I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse
I have to go. It was nice talking to you. But going in, the EV is assumed to be negative because of overall hand outcome. You, as the player, have the option of doubling down on a bet. You are able to add on more money to that bet, and because of the progressive betting progression, when you double down, it has a bigger impact. Have a good day sir.
You do NOT have the option to double down any more with a large bet than a small bet. You double the same hands. You lose the same hands. The EV is unchanged.
EV is negative.
The bet is positive.
The win/loss is the EV*bet
A positive times a negative is a negative. Period.
But, feel free to be one of the milions over the last two centuries that have played progressions in casinos with this odd concept that merely changing the betting pattern without any change to EV will magically allow you to beat the house.
"I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse
You are really proving yourself to have no understanding of the game of BJ and its math. If you had a shot of swaying anyone to your view you have destroyed your credibility by not understanding very basic concepts explained over and over to you in many different forms. If i want instructions on how to swim I am not going to listen to the guy that needs saving by the lifeguard every day. If I want directions to the winners circle I am not going to listen to the jockey that can't find the finish line even when it is obvious. Simply repeating the same wrong info after it is explained to you over and over again doesn't inspire confidence in what you are peddling. This is a very sophisticated site with well educated posters on the math of the game. It is a great place to learn but not a great place for those that are tough students. We have one that has been transformed into a very angry and unhappy poster because he has blown his credibility and thinks there is a conspiracy against him. Don't be that guy.
Last edited by Three; 08-18-2014 at 08:03 AM.
Norm I give you credit for replying so often as you did. I was getting a headache from all of his nonsense. It makes sense that he was trying to convince people to buy his book. I don't think he believes that his system is profitable...his book maybe from all of the people who just have no clue
Bookmarks