Simple Shuffle Tracking

[bjarg]

That was a good post by moo.
I would like to make a couple of comments on it though.

4. The social ability to control a table, so that people let you do what you want to do

The best trackers I know wouldn't consider this to be an important point.
Actually, an intelligent and proficient tracker is one that only on very special ocassions will ask for the cut card.
He will let others cut much more often than he will cut himself.
The reasons of why he would do this should be pretty obvious.
Of course penetration will have a big impact on the rate at which a tracker will offer himself to cut the deck.

5. A large bankroll. You generally underbet your calculated edge when tracking, because it's quite easy to make mistakes. Basically, you assume you may have messed up a little, because (unlike counting) it is impossible to track with 100% precision. Even the best players will miss by a few cards, and you have several opportunities to miss.

I disagree.
When you say a large bankroll to me it sounds as if you are saying that br requirements are bigger than those for card counting (maybe Im understanding it wrong), when it is actually the other way around.
Assuming he's doing things properly, a trackers advantage is always bigger than that of a card counter's, so if you want to make things comparable the bankroll requirement for a tracker is always going to be less that the one needed by the card counter.
Of course all of this things are very difficult to measure because unlike card counting, complex shuffle tracking play is almost impossible to simulate.
What is a trackers EV? What is his ROR? This are all questions that are very difficult to answer at an advanced level of play.

I also disagree with the statement that a tracker will generally underbet his calculated edge.
I dont know a single person that does that.
Of course that depending on the complexity of the shuffle you might make more or less mistakes, but that doesnt mean that you underbet because you assume you might make a mistake.
When you can follow all the TZ that will compose your PZ you play the count you registered.
Can dealer's grabs or your own eyeball estimations cause it not to be 100% accurate?
Of course, but you don't need it to be.
When your TZ is getting married to something unknown you use NRS.
So I really dont see how anybody would make a conscious decission to underbet.
I could see that happening in somebody with little experience, who is just making a ballpark estimation of where those big cards are at... but never in a real pro.

Cheers.

[moo321]

bjarg,

There's a reason I was vague in my post.

[stopgambling]

Kudo to bjarg! I totally agreed with you. Just a little paranoia and then you will have the casino thinking trackers are everywhere. Just like any other plays , sometimes opportunities do arise. Why make it any easier for them . They are NOT making it any easier for ANYBODY!

[bjarg]

bjarg,

There's a reason I was vague in my post.

Huh? I dont understand why you direct that to me.
My post wasnt meant to expand on your vagueness, it was simply meant to state that points 4 and 5 from your list are incorrect (not vague).

[moo321]

I am standing outside in the rain in a "Fight Club" style, waiting for permission to join the moo2014 AP camp

Or should I say moo2015, moo2016...

"I'm gonna go back inside and get a shovel!"

[Ouchez]

The best trackers I know wouldn't consider this to be an important point.
Actually, an intelligent and proficient tracker is one that only on very special ocassions will ask for the cut card.
He will let others cut much more often than he will cut himself.
The reasons of why he would do this should be pretty obvious.
Of course penetration will have a big impact on the rate at which a tracker will offer himself to cut the de

Cheers.

Bjarg,

I would have to say that it is correct that when you do not get the cut card it is still possible to make the play because you know where the Hot Zone is, except in the case when it is cut out of play! That is a sad event. Now, I understand on a very deep game the need to have control is not so urgent, but in 1.5 cuts, that I see often, or even 2.0, I want the cut whenever possible. In many instances other players are afraid to cut, and it is easy for the STinger to do so, almost a favor to the dealer to move the game along.

Best,
O

[Blitzkrieg]

I finally got a look at a dealers shuffle in a hand held game. The shuffle was difficult to track in that it was a 2 or 3 pass shuffle that the dealers were performing, but didn't seem impossible. After seeing how they shuffled I am now able to duplicate their shuffle for that game. Throughout the game I was almost wishing for an ASM to be in use just for the sake of speeding the game up so I could see more hands an hour after sitting through 4 sets of deck changes throughout a session. It almost makes me think that some casinos go to hand shuffles during peak hours of business/days to slow Blackjack games up when they know they have more players on their BJ games/floor.

[Three]

No good comes from discussing shuffles in an open forum. Discussing hard shuffles gives a blueprint on what is hard to track. Discussing easy shuffles will kill the best opportunities.

[Ouchez]

Move this to the paid forum, or bust the thread. I posted here only to support Moo, as I think he was starting to get beat up some.

O

[Blitzkrieg]

No good comes from discussing shuffles in an open forum. Discussing hard shuffles gives a blueprint on what is hard to track. Discussing easy shuffles will kill the best opportunities.

You worry to much T3. I could have gone into much greater detail about the shuffle but refrained from doing so.

[bjarg]

Bjarg,

I would have to say that it is correct that when you do not get the cut card it is still possible to make the play because you know where the Hot Zone is, except in the case when it is cut out of play! That is a sad event. Now I understand on a very deep game the need to have control is not so urgent, but in 1.5 cuts, that I see often, or even 2.0, I want the cut whenever possible. In many instances other players are afraid to cut, and it is easy for the STinger to do so, almost a favor to the dealer to move the game along.

Best,
O

There are many things I would like to answer my friend, but you are as experienced and skilled as they come, so I really dont see the point of discussing any of this in a public forum.
To each his own.
Best to you too.

[bigplayer]

Several of the big 1980s computer tracking team captains told me that they recommend underbet ring your estimated edge while tracking because of the ease of making errors. Arnolds book is good but for tracking big segments you really need the NRS formula to figure out changes in advantage. Arnolds shortcut works well enough though for small slugs lasting only a few rounds.

[Bodarc]

I think there are better ways to gain an advantage rather than ST