Simple Shuffle Tracking

[Three]

When I count, I visually see that an excess of small cards has been played. I know there is an excess of high cards remaining. I do not base my count on some imaginary average.

What do you think a true count is? It is the average of the seen cards across the number of unseen cards. You have seen the cards that add to -10. You know where they are. You know the TC for all the unseen cards. You know how many decks of these cards got mixed with the slug. If you assumed the TC for the cards mixed in was 0 it would be like seeing a bunch of low cards but assuming the TC of the remaining cards was 0. It is no more an imaginary average than your TC you base your bets on is imaginary. They are both based on the exact same thing.

[Bodarc]

Three, I will be the first to admit that you could put what I know about ST in the bottom 1/4 deck of a thimble. Now if I can learn a method of ST so that I know that I am cutting a good deck to the front, I"d be all for that. I just don't see this method as being reliable especially since he is using a simple shuffle that does not exist in today's world except maybe overseas.

Now ole buddy ole pal . If you want to teach me ST, hit the message button at the top right. I'll be all ears.

[Player1]

This was not an intelligent post.
You are openly posting and writing about a very sensitive subject with quite a lot of details.
Me, myself I couldnt care less about what gets posted here, but I can assure you there are quite a few members here that will probably feel very uncomfortable with your post.
if you want help and dont want to piss off those who can actually help you (which are very few), I would edit that post and try to find somebody to help you by PM or something.
Good luck.

I appreciate your honesty and I am relatively new to this site and do not want to offend. It won't happen again. The start of this thread has been edited accordingly.

[Three]

Now ole buddy ole pal . If you want to teach me ST, hit the message button at the top right. I'll be all ears.

I am no expert in ST. There are some experts on here. I know just enough to get me in trouble. LOL

I do understand the math. Actually using the math in a shuffle . It would have to be pretty basic shuffle. I get no practice because there aren't much opportunities around here. If I were an expert I would know just where the few opportunities were and making the most of them.

[Blitzkrieg]

Good luck on being able to find a hand shuffled 6D game to track, I know they are out there with different styles of shuffles. The ASM's seem like they are the perfect countermeasure to a shuffle tracker and it looks like they will be in use for as long as there is blackjack and other games that involve cards. I hate the ASM's because I feel like it takes an element out of the game that should be afforded to the player but the casinos know their dealers can be corrupted and their deals cracked.

Hopefully you are good enough to crack the dealers shuffle with your skills and be able to cut to the zone high in rich cards. I can understand why your doing all this math to try and compute a TC if you are successful in cutting to a zone high in rich cards. But even if you were not able to compute the TC to a rich zone with a successful cut and track, I suppose a player could have a decent shot at winning a higher percentage of their bets up front while other players at the table may choose to sit out of the game or think the deck is going in the houses favor, anyone wonging would be wasting their time on that particular table.

Over the last week in this poker league I play and shuffle track in I've been on three final tables out of my last 4 attempts. Finishing 1st in a field of 60 players, finishing and cashing 4th in the money game out of a field of 60 players, and placing 6th place on another final table out of 50+ players. I've cracked so many shuffles in this club it's not even funny. It's a tremendous advantage but bridging the gap between shuffle tracking in poker and blackjack are two different beasts.

Shuffle tracking in blackjack is something I want to learn more of so I guess I may have to read up on what kind of literature has been produced on the subject but I also have been experimenting with some trial and error. I realize I may put a lot of time and effort into learning it and may never get to use such a skill but only in rare circumstances in BJ. But on the other hand it wasn't very long ago that I was able to know the value of the dealers down card and what I regard as the "Holy Grail" of blackjack play, the dealers hole card. It was the greatest feeling I've ever had at a blackjack table while keeping a straight face after seeing it all go down right under their unsuspecting noses.

[Three]

Hopefully you are good enough to crack the dealers shuffle with your skills and be able to cut to the zone high in rich cards. I can understand why your doing all this math to try and compute a TC if you are successful in cutting to a zone high in rich cards.

I have never had much opportunity. It is usually a dealer that doesn't follow procedure for a while so opportunities are fleeting. I never spent much time looking into actually tracking the shuffles. If it was an easy enough shuffle I could theoretically do it. I am just leery of betting into air because I am not practiced enough and the slug is elsewhere. The few times I tried it, it worked out pretty good so I am guessing I did it right. I would be very nervous if I had to rely on my ST ability on a daily basis. There is a certain amount of zen type positive thinking that is tied to successful results. I am not bringing that to the table with me when/if I were to rely on ST as my primary edge. I wouldn't try it until I did have that extra edge that comes from being sure you will be successful.

[Pierce]

Blackjack Essays barely touches the surface of tracking. Get the Trackers Cookbook and spend a good 6 months shuffling, mapping and analysing. Other posters are correct though, finding a shuffle that is consistently trackable is not easy in todays game.

[bjarg]

But I wonder, how really sensitive are these posts as long as they do not discuss actual conditions encountered in a given casino? Or the specifics of given shuffles?

I mean, these books are there for anyone to buy and, specially, for the casino industry to read, right? You just don't discuss these techniques AT ALL in an open forum?

Well... its debatable.
What you say is true, and kudos for the casino folks that take the time to properly investigate and research.
But what about those that dont?
What about those that maybe just started lurking this forum, that are clueless about their vulnerabilities and suddenly see a post like that one?
I dont think shuffle tracking cannot be discussed AT ALL, I just think that precautions must be taken so as to not give away too much information.
99% of people that read about sting will never understand what it really is and to the extent that the technique can be used by a real pro (and what the casino would actually need to do to make it completely obsolete), unless we start spoon feeding them describing every single detail of how it works.
Right now this forum has areas for paid subscriptors.
I think those forums are better for discussing this type of things.

Just to be clear, this doesnt affect me at all.
I dont play in the US and the places I play at are light years away from having personnel looking in this forums.
Also, what was being described was very basic.
Im just stating my opinion, because if I did played in the US this thread would actually make me very uncomfortable.

Im sure there are a lot of people that will say that this doesnt matter, that sting has been publicly discussed for years and that it is ok to blindly post about it.
I guess thats a valid point, but I dont agree with it.
It's funny also because usually people that make that claim are not active trackers.

[Blitzkrieg]

I have never had much opportunity. It is usually a dealer that doesn't follow procedure for a while so opportunities are fleeting. I never spent much time looking into actually tracking the shuffles. If it was an easy enough shuffle I could theoretically do it. I am just leery of betting into air because I am not practiced enough and the slug is elsewhere. The few times I tried it, it worked out pretty good so I am guessing I did it right. I would be very nervous if I had to rely on my ST ability on a daily basis. There is a certain amount of zen type positive thinking that is tied to successful results. I am not bringing that to the table with me when/if I were to rely on ST as my primary edge. I wouldn't try it until I did have that extra edge that comes from being sure you will be successful.

I haven't had much opportunity to ST in casino blackjack either but now more than ever I have my eye open for weak dealers. 6D is the main BJ game that I've seen the casinos perform a hand shuffle on when they are not using their ASM. Sadly enough I live hours away from the casinos to scout them and look for exploitable games and weak dealers on a daily basis or otherwise that's probably what I would be doing if I lived in a town with a lot of casinos.

[Skull]

What about those that maybe just started lurking this forum, that are clueless about their vulnerabilities and suddenly see a post like that one?

I'd be very impressed to know that ANY casino is clueless about the diverse forms of advantage play. But I agree that we should not make it any easier for them, "spoon feeding" like you said.

99% of people that read about sting will never understand what it really is

And I believe 99.99% that read about sting will never be able to apply it in real life. If I were the casinos, I would send subliminal messages to stimulate people to learn sting. The house edge would be massive!

Im sure there are a lot of people that will say that this doesnt matter, that sting has been publicly discussed for years and that it is ok to blindly post about it. I guess thats a valid point, but I dont agree with it.
It's funny also because usually people that make that claim are not active trackers.

I think that if card counting wasn't discussed so openly either and if there were only a handful of books about it (like with sting), the "card counting market" would be less efficient and our edge would be greater. YOUR edge actually, because this forum wouldn't probably exist and people like me would never even have heard about card counting. There would not be movies about it for sure. However, we are deep in the Internet Age and I doubt we can avoid that the "sting market" become as efficient as any other market around (stocks, sports betting, etc...). But again, I agree we should not make it any easier for them. We, who can't sting at all, sure have no right to open any doors to this "secretive" art, specially if we have the vaguest hope to ever catch a glimpse of it.

Best!

[moo321]

The Shuffle Tracker's Cookbook (Arnold Snyder, I believe), is a good intro. Very good theory, and introduction to the topic.

However, it is NOT going to get you the money. The methods are somewhat outdated, and too theoretical to work in real games. This is one of the few areas of AP play that I think you really need to learn from a real person who has done it, because it's so easy to mess up. The MIT teams lost their asses trying some of these techniques.

Without getting into anything sensitive, you will need to be able to develop the following skills:

1. Deck estimation skills. You can't miss by more than a few cards, and missing by a few cards is much more dangerous than with counting
2. Flawless counting (you should be able to do this anyway)
3. The ability to keep the main count and possibly several side counts
4. The social ability to control a table, so that people let you do what you want to do
5. A large bankroll. You generally underbet your calculated edge when tracking, because it's quite easy to make mistakes. Basically, you assume you may have messed up a little, because (unlike counting) it is impossible to track with 100% precision. Even the best players will miss by a few cards, and you have several opportunities to miss.

[Skull]

This is one of the few areas of AP play that I think you really need to learn from a real person who has done it, because it's so easy to mess up.

I am standing outside in the rain in a "Fight Club" style, waiting for permission to join the moo2014 AP camp

Or should I say moo2015, moo2016...

[muffdiver]

moo's 5 points do a good job of illustrating why "Sting" is for the few and not the masses.