OG seems simple enough in principle. Researching it's application to BJ (mainly on bjinfo.com archives) shows that nearly everyone who uses it has a unique style (re: stop loss and valuing bet increment).
I'd love to hear how you'd "grind" a $10 CSM table with $1,000 in your pocket.
This is not just interest. I think OG may be a smarter way of getting known at my few local casinos than flat betting.
So, what would your unit and stop-loss be?
My thanks in advance.
Last edited by Suwon Fish; 12-28-2011 at 08:04 AM.
Update....
After 30 sessions, OG seemed like a miracle, a system that works.
After 1,000 sessions the truth comes out. Like any other progression system, Oscar's Grind will pull your pants down and #@%& you.
Ah well, back to KO and poker.
Last edited by Suwon Fish; 12-30-2011 at 10:03 PM. Reason: Correcting error in session numbers
I appreciate the advice Double Trouble.
After some initial (and head scratchingly good) outcomes, more rigorous testing showed OG to be a nightmare. The logic of OG is seductive and it maddeningly provides seemingly +EV outcomes a lot of the time, but chasing one unit with 20, 30 or 40 units with an ever dwindling chance of a "streak" long enough to get that single unit plus the those already down... Not my cup of tea.
After a thorough test of OG, and bearing in mind tables limits (that are soon reached, making pure OG impossible) I suspect Oscar was fiction, a tall tale teller or the luckiest SOB that ever walked the Earth!
To be honest, I wanted it to work to a degree. I tested it on American roulette and those 2 greens probably made it fail much more quickly than if I'd tested it on Craps (with a much smaller house edge).
Snyder talks about OG in a positive way, but maybe he meant it as a cover. One thing I'm glad about, after getting a good feel for it I can pretend any bet ramping is a modified OG so it wasn't a sterile exercise.
That may be my new cover, the luckiest Oscar's Grinder to walk the Earth ^^
Last edited by Suwon Fish; 01-01-2012 at 04:58 AM.
When I messed with the OG progression on "paper", I found it necessary to up the incremental jump after a win after every 5 jumps. This kept the streak as a reasonable likelihood. Since it was on paper I did the full table min to table max run. It changed when the disaster hit but not that it would hit sometime. The OG progression is best used as a comp whore system. That is what makes it a positive EV. If you want to leave with actual money in the long run look somewhere else. I think the legend of Oscar has him plying the system at the craps table on the pass or dont. It is not suited for blackjack because a piece of paper as a crutch to when you are ahead is often desirable. They don't allow that at blackjack. I guess you could count chips but that is laborious when it comes time to shrink your bet to make that bet that will make you exactly one unit profit for the progression..Originally Posted by Suwon Fish
I used a slight modifiction of OG on the Royal Match machines with a moderate amount of success. My modification was simply that if I wasn't ahead after 5 plays, I lowered my expectations to breaking even rather than winning a unit for the series. I'd stop playing when I was 15 units up or 100 units down. My success rate was well above the breakeven point needed, but I could easily lose two or three session in a short time. I found no trouble adapting it to blackjack but when I posted the results here, many people felt I was using something else and shouldn't call it Oscars Grind.
Let me die in my sleep like my Grandfather.
Not screaming in agony like his passengers.
It is call Oscar's "Grind" and it is a grind.
Lets say you played it for ten sessions and won 70% of them. (red chips and 40 units)
You won $700, with your seven winning sessions. (stopped at $100)
You lost three times for $600. (-$200 each)
After ten sessions you cleared $100.
BTW suson fish I did a type-o and didn't catch it. it would be 20 units to get two plays, with a $1,000 bankroll.
I have done a lot of play on a computer with negative and positive progressions using methods similar to the one quoted above"I would use 40 units or $400 for a $10 Oscar's Grind.
That will enough units to give it a chance to work. (if it is going to)
A bank of $1,000 would give you two shots at it.
Go for a win of $200/$250 and it should get there, over 70% of the time. "
I also used a recovery session of br of 100 units after losing 40 units. I found the positive progresssions gave better % chances of hitting these small 200/250 wins. I liked the cancelation or just straight 1 up on a loss one down on a win. These are not wnning strategies, but with a sufficient bankroll a weekend player could give themselves a good percentage chance to go home a winner on a few trips, before the big loss.... in fact there are guys on here that are good enough with the math that could figure out the percentage based on a given betting unit and br and session br witha certain # of playing hours your chance of making it through the weekend.
zolas
Last edited by zolas; 07-09-2012 at 10:07 PM. Reason: clarity
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