Spread change or what?

[ZeeBabar]

This Saturday, I drove a considerable distance to get to a casino where DD and 6 deck penn was quite good. However, on the main floor, tables were not only 4-5 at each but ploppies playing side nbets, making the game slow.

in the HL room, no side bets, but again, too many folks and the 2-3 DD games ended up with at least 4 spots being played, often 5 spots because a player might be playing 2 spots. Thus, playing $25 games, spread 1-8, lost a bunch of money. Few positive counts and even fewer where max bets could be placed and the few times I did play max, I lost.

the 6 deck games were full too. Also both were no Mid Shoe and if you wronged out, you lost your place.

i know I should have gone home but I had driven 2.5 hours to get there and so I played and I lost.

i think, in such crowded conditions, I should have been more aggressive. This my question about how you adjust your spread. Maybe I should have bet more than $25 earlier rather than wait for a TC +2 to go to $50 or go to $100 at TC 2.

[KJ]

That is just bad conditions, ZeeBaber. As AP's we seek out and scout for good conditions. This includes penetration and game rules but it also includes how crowded the games are and game speed, which obviously is tied to side bets.

I have places in my regular rotation that I won't even consider playing on a Saturday because of crowded conditions from the weekend warrior types. But then I have a few places that I will only play on Saturdays, because they handle the crowded conditions well by opening more tables timely. But it's all about preparation, scouting and doing your homework.

[Bodarc]

i know I should have gone home but . . . . .

I think you answered it.

[Three]

i think, in such crowded conditions, I should have been more aggressive.

You know you don't have to play just because you showed up. Leave and go to plan B. There should be another casino or two that can be visited on your drive without going too much out of the way. You can always do something else for a while and come back. If you want to avoid wild fluctuations the only control you have is the system you use and the games you choose to play. Playing crowded conditions even if it is a great game with great pen makes it too much of a craps shoot as to the certainty of your results. You play fewer hands in the same amount of time at a crowded table. When you get a good plus count others are likely to get the good cards when they come out. The result is far fewer betting opportunities when the big count comes. Like everything else in BJ to approach expectation you must get the hands in. On that rare time you are betting max bet getting a fraction of the bets out before the count is gone makes your results far less predictable. Only by getting the repetitions in at each bet that you approach expectation. Think about the affect that has on your rare max bet opportunities. Your results for that bet depend on getting in the reps but the count disappears before you make many because of all the other players eating cards.

Just learn when and where to find the less crowded conditions and have the discipline to not play if the conditions aren't to your liking.

[Exoter175]

This Saturday, I drove a considerable distance to get to a casino where DD and 6 deck penn was quite good. However, on the main floor, tables were not only 4-5 at each but ploppies playing side nbets, making the game slow.

in the HL room, no side bets, but again, too many folks and the 2-3 DD games ended up with at least 4 spots being played, often 5 spots because a player might be playing 2 spots. Thus, playing $25 games, spread 1-8, lost a bunch of money. Few positive counts and even fewer where max bets could be placed and the few times I did play max, I lost.

the 6 deck games were full too. Also both were no Mid Shoe and if you wronged out, you lost your place.

i know I should have gone home but I had driven 2.5 hours to get there and so I played and I lost.

i think, in such crowded conditions, I should have been more aggressive. This my question about how you adjust your spread. Maybe I should have bet more than $25 earlier rather than wait for a TC +2 to go to $50 or go to $100 at TC 2.

I wouldn't adjust your spread or anything, I'd have gone home or found a new place, or spent some time waiting until the crowd died down. This is why I emphasize to a lot of the newer guys like myself, that we need to do a lot more "homework" on the dealers, tables, and "Crowds" than just honing our base games and indices and counting speeds.

Scouting is literally everything.

I think you answered it.

Bingo.

You know you don't have to play just because you showed up. Leave and go to plan B. There should be another casino or two that can be visited on your drive without going too much out of the way. You can always do something else for a while and come back. If you want to avoid wild fluctuations the only control you have is the system you use and the games you choose to play. Playing crowded conditions even if it is a great game with great pen makes it too much of a craps shoot as to the certainty of your results. You play fewer hands in the same amount of time at a crowded table. When you get a good plus count others are likely to get the good cards when they come out. The result is far fewer betting opportunities when the big count comes. Like everything else in BJ to approach expectation you must get the hands in. On that rare time you are betting max bet getting a fraction of the bets out before the count is gone makes your results far less predictable. Only by getting the repetitions in at each bet that you approach expectation. Think about the affect that has on your rare max bet opportunities. Your results for that bet depend on getting in the reps but the count disappears before you make many because of all the other players eating cards.

Just learn when and where to find the less crowded conditions and have the discipline to not play if the conditions aren't to your liking.

nail on the head right there.

[ZeeBabar]

I am still a newbie (after 14 months) and I sure made a mistake going out there on a Saturday afternoon and finding crowded conditions. I have problems at both ends, a crowded casino or a dead one at dead hours. I like playing with 1-2 others at the table, ideally with the others playing at or higher than my betting levels. When there is a heads up game and few tables/people around, I feel a bit paranoid about heat or uncomfortabe with a large stack in fron of me. When they are crowded, I seem to not win much.

[Three]

When they are crowded, I seem to not win much.

Get used to this. I will take heads up any day. I use enough cover that I usually get my bets down and win before it is time to exit. I can relate to newbie paranoia. Learn what the pit normal procedures are and you will see most of what you are getting nervous about is just normal procedure. Then when the real heat comes you will know it.

[Exoter175]

Get used to this. I will take heads up any day. I use enough cover that I usually get my bets down and win before it is time to exit. I can relate to newbie paranoia. Learn what the pit normal procedures are and you will see most of what you are getting nervous about is just normal procedure. Then when the real heat comes you will know it.

This, and I wouldn't be too worried about playing a dealer heads up as long as you stick to your game.

[ZenKinG]

I am still a newbie (after 14 months) and I sure made a mistake going out there on a Saturday afternoon and finding crowded conditions. I have problems at both ends, a crowded casino or a dead one at dead hours. I like playing with 1-2 others at the table, ideally with the others playing at or higher than my betting levels. When there is a heads up game and few tables/people around, I feel a bit paranoid about heat or uncomfortabe with a large stack in fron of me. When they are crowded, I seem to not win much.

That's not a coincidence, the reason you feel you lose more with more players is because of the few amount of hands that you receive in a crowded game making it longer to get to the long run. Think of it this way, of course you can win, but you are lowering the chances of climbing out of the red because you have such fewer hands. So if you start off the shoe badly, it's hard to retrace it back up with such a low amount of rounds and you thereby lose slowly and it gets stuck in your mind after each session. What you can do if you can only play crowded conditions is try to get multiple spots somehow and play two hands per round to maximize the poor conditions. There is a good side however, because of so few hands or rounds, you won't experience the wild swings, in your case, high negative swings on average.

Heads up isn't heaven either, yes your win rate will be higher, but you will also experience a lot higher variance/StdDev in both directions, reason for this is just because you are receiving so many hands, doesn't mean you will always climb out out of a hole, you will be getting close to 120 hands n hour depending on the dealer, and the swings will be fast in either direction. You will get to your N0 a lot faster, but the variance will also be quicker. Each has their own flaws just try to mix it up.

But just to be clear, you losing more on a crowded table is selective memory as I have pointed out above. At the end of the day, in the long run, there is no mathematical difference to you losing a particular hand whether crowded conditions or heads up, a crowded table can easily have saved you as much as it could have hurt you. What is different is you just taking longer to get to your N0 with such few hands and that is why you remember your losses a lot more effectively.

My advice, if you're on a low BR, I would actually play crowded conditions so your wins and losses are not extreme, and see if you can catch a lucky streak to build your roll slowly. Heads up you can get wiped out quickly, dont fall in love with the win rates you see on CVCX when you up the amount of hands per hour, look at every statistic and see if it benefits your roll and your playstyle.

[Meistro123]

Just going during off hours. Also this would be a good opportunity to play poker if you are any good at the game.

[ZeeBabar]

But just to be clear, you losing more on a crowded table is selective memory as I have pointed out above. At the end of the day, in the long run, there is no mathematical difference to you losing a particular hand whether crowded conditions or heads up, a crowded table can easily have saved you as much as it could have hurt you. What is different is you just taking longer to get to your N0 with such few hands and that is why you remember your losses a lot more effectively.

My advice, if you're on a low BR, I would actually play crowded conditions so your wins and losses are not extreme, and see if you can catch a lucky streak to build your roll slowly. Heads up you can get wiped out quickly, dont fall in love with the win rates you see on CVCX when you up the amount of hands per hour, look at every statistic and see if it benefits your roll and your playstyle.[/QUOTE]

i have about $35k in BR. Unfortunately, often I do gave to get my hours in by going on crowded weekend trips. I am new at playing the $25 min tables and am probably too conservative in bet spreads, going to $50 at TC+2, $75 or $100 at TC+3 and higher only at TC+4 or higher.

when I play at $10 tables, I am much more confident because my spread is 1-12 and max bet is $120.

[Three]

Unfortunately, often I do gave to get my hours in by going on crowded weekend trips.

Weekends have opportunities to play uncrowded conditions. Just learn when they are. If nothing else at certain times they open new tables. I have found good, and more importantly, predictable conditions concerning crowding on weekends. You just have to get your scouting in to know when and where to be.

[Exoter175]

Weekends have opportunities to play uncrowded conditions. Just learn when they are. If nothing else at certain times they open new tables. I have found good, and more importantly, predictable conditions concerning crowding on weekends. You just have to get your scouting in to know when and where to be.

Another good point on scouting, especially if you're dealing with a "local" store to you, is finding out when new tables open, when they tend to close them down or close down a pit, when they bring in new cards, etc. etc.

Even on a shoulder to shoulder weekend night, I know I can get 45 minutes in before things get too crowded, if I show up when they open up the "weekend" pit.