Game Evaluation

**Mountain Man** · 08-09-2014, 05:00 PM

In my area, the best game I can find is 6D, S17, DDA2, DAS, 70%PEN, FU with $5 Minimum. If I spread $5 to $90, the best I can expect is to make about $15 per hour using Original Zen.

I have basically been treading water for the past two years. While I haven't played frequently, and have not keep accurate logs of my play, winning sessions and losing sessions have tended to balance out.

I don't see the financial reward in this game, mainly from a time perspective. The only way I could possibly justify the time spent playing would be to increase my bank and play for much higher stakes.

I love playing the game, and believe I am a very accomplished and disciplined counter, but can't justify the time from a payback perspective. The reason I love to play is that I find it relaxing, taking my mind off my day job.

The most discouraging part is now that I can analyze the game using QFiT software, the real potential of the game is more evident. The reality and risk is more clear and defined.

I would appreciate any advice on improving my return on invested time.

MM

**biggg** · 08-09-2014, 10:47 PM

That's not a great game but I understand you are limited by your area especially since you can't handle travel at that bet size. Some will tell you to find better games but even if they cut off 1 deck and offered late surrender the truth is that as you noticed you still can't win that much at this game.

I have a bankroll that allows me to max bet around $500 and it's still not worth it to me from a $ per hour perspective and my bankroll wasn't even built from BJ, it was built from sports betting, poker, and promotional plays. I play BJ mostly for recreational purposes (of course when I do play, I play in an extremely aggressive manner to maximize my edge). If I were a professional gambler I wouldn't even touch counting BJ, the swings are ridiculous compared to every other type of gambling and at pretty much every casino I have been to, counting is the only AP method monitored at all unless you manage an incredible win. Other AP methods offer far more profit potential and much lower heat, but require more time, travel, and setup to pull off which I don't really have given that I have a full time job.

If my bankroll were about three times where it was now (able to play $100 mins) the game might be worthwhile, because then I would have access to heads-up play with decent rules at a lot of stores that I otherwise would never visit for blackjack. Given the higher game speed I may only be betting 3x as much on average but I might win 6-8 times more. But my understanding is that the heat at those levels is extremely severe and I never really bothered to build up an act, since nobody cares about a recreational top bet of 2x250 at any decent casino anyway. And once again if you have a professional level bankroll, which I define as being limited by the table maximum at most games, counting is not usually what you want to be doing, since you also want to be invited back.

As for advice I would say one thing you could do is try to meet up with a team. If you can spread 5 to 90 you probably have like a 5-10k roll whcih would at least let you buyin with a decent team. The only problem is that successful teams are rare as few have the combination of the skills and not being a degenerate/thief. But you might also be able to get paid an hourly wage as a spotter for one of these teams that would be more than what you could win on your own. While boring this might let you build a roll to at least spread in green where you could play more stores and reasonably afford travel expenses + get room comps etc.

**bigplayer** · 08-10-2014, 03:10 AM

You haven't said how aggressively you're table hopping (exiting from negative counts), but you can really improve your win rate by bopping around much more aggressively. It's not a matter of avoiding the $5 bets, but more a matter of avoiding wasting the time you spend waiting for either the count to recover or for the shoe to end. When the RC reaches -10 begin to look around for a dealer in the middle of shuffling and just pick up your chips and move. You will get to a hot shoe much faster and more of them per hour played.

**Three** · 08-10-2014, 06:54 AM

In another thread I was asked a question about what I learned to seek out and avoid when being mentored. A lot was not appropriate for the open forum so I intended to come back to it but I forgot which thread it was in. Anyway one of the things I can put in the open forum is that you shouldn't play crap just because you showed up and it is there. You either walk or take a shot. Which means you need to have the discipline to leave after you take your brief shot whether ahead or behind. Backcounting into a shoe is a great way to take a shot. Nothing can chew up BR growth as quick as a propensity to waste time on crap games. You should know the rules before you show up so we are primarily talking crowding and pen. It is a waste of time to play crap. Drive to the next casino to make better use of your time and save your BR.

Going home is usually preferable if no other decent options are out there. We are about exploiting our advantage when playing. That has a lot more than just counting to consider in this. The myriad of money management aspects must also be considered. High RoR, large N0, crowded conditions and crappy pen all have their place in deciding if the place is even worth playing to begin with. Learning when and where the most preferable conditions are in your local rotation will have you maximizing the return for your time and travel expenses. Playing high N0 games just makes AP play approach gambling. Increasing certainty isn't often given the credit it is due. It is usually a minor part of the simple vs complex approach debate and is often misused in the debate. This causes a lack of understanding of how certainty applies to other situations. N0 itself is a measure of certainty as is risk of ruin is a measure of BR certainty.

**MJGolf** · 08-13-2014, 12:24 PM

Interesting philosophy TThree. I have always wondered about the ability and propensity to make this a side income or second job/avocation. It seems like with comps, it was great because got a lot of free or basically free vacations over the years. But never bet high enough to think it was a lucrative side income. But you guys (with minimum $100 bets to $500/hand bets or higher) sure make me want to aspire to something greater. I guess I have just never had the bankroll to play at that level or risk tolerance to do so. But what you say makes sense.........you either take your shot or you don't. Don't play at a game that isn't worth it. I realize the entertainment value in playing..........and I still enjoy this game, even if there are more AP situations other than blackjack around, that are essentially UNKNOWN to me. Thankfully I have a replenishing bankroll if I like, since I do have a real job. But I guess it's all a matter of prospective. I want to make money but just winning in the long run over time and having my trips paid for has been enough so far. And though there are many casinos here; there is NO high concentration in any one area to allow us to "drive to the next casino to make better use of my time" easily. Is there a MINIMUM playing situation that you would consider or suggest "taking your shot at" v. leaving for another place?

**Three** · 08-13-2014, 12:35 PM

The minimum depends on the system you use. A stronger system will make more games playable. A very weak system needs very good conditions to get the degree of certainty you are looking for. If the game using your system under the current conditions has a N0 much above 20,000 you are probably better off passing.