19 v 10. Is this negative EV at a high count?

[Thirdbaseman]

Index	Double Down	No Double Down	Diff
-10	0.307935	0.153968	0.153968
-9	0.293187	0.146594	0.146594
-8	0.273494	0.136747	0.136747
-7	0.258377	0.129189	0.129189
-6	0.238415	0.119208	0.119208
-5	0.220802	0.110401	0.110401
-4	0.199102	0.099551	0.099551
-3	0.178237	0.089119	0.089119
-2	0.155595	0.077798	0.077798
-1	0.133580	0.066790	0.066790
0	0.113970	0.056985	0.056985
1	0.092520	0.046260	0.046260
2	0.070529	0.035264	0.035264
3	0.048525	0.024262	0.024262
4	0.025075	0.012538	0.012538
5	0.005476	0.002738	0.002738
6	-0.020352	-0.010176	-0.010176
7	-0.040510	-0.020255	-0.020255
8	-0.063887	-0.031944	-0.031944
9	-0.085935	-0.042967	-0.042967
10	-0.107403	-0.053701	-0.053701

Almost 100% certain about this.

Thanks muckz. That answers my question.
BTW where could I find this info?

[muckz]

Thanks muckz. That answers my question.
BTW where could I find this info?

Norm's software does quite a few things

[Tarzan]

Tarzan, just for sh*ts and grins, at what TC would you double rather than hit (I know you meant hit above) your 11vT in the 8 next card situation example assuming a "normal" distribution of middle cards. How do the middle ranks affect the decision when they get out of whack at the neutral middle card threshold for the decision. I know you already know the answer and don't have to run any sims to come up with it.

Now I realize what the original question was... Oops! I was scratching my head looking at 19vsT and was bewildered. This is the snap judgment of what I would do in this situation with this next card info.

Without the next card information the index to hit instead of double becomes TC-3. TC-3 = 0-0-3 = 5-0-5 for me on this hand. This is very easy to point out, this effect of {6-9} on a chart I have but I don't have that JPG handy so you're going to have to take my word for it. Basically it takes five evenly distributed {6-9} to match the EOR of three {2-5} from an evenly distributed grouping of {2-5} for 11vsT.

The next card information throws a whole new curve on this though! With the knowledge of the next card being an (8), the LOWER the TC, the higher the EV! Surplus (6-8) raise EV and are keycards. Without doing the actual calculation, if I ran into this situation the snap judgment would be to double at TC-3 or less, hit at any positive count to get the (8) and hope for the best and for anything in between I would think about ratios within the {2-5} and {6-9} groupings (surplus (2,3) within the {2-5} for instance), surplus or deficit (A) (deficit (A) would raise EV for this particular hand/scenario), surplus (9) within {6-9}, etc. Obviously lots of surplus (7,8) are good and deficit (7,8) are not so good, which would sway my decision. Five extra {6-9} per deck in an even distribution puts me right on the line but surplus or deficit (7,8) would sway the decision in either direction. Normally surplus (A) lower EV when doubling 11 but in this instance with the next card info this is all but eliminated.

(7,8) have a significant effect on this particular scenario and become keycards because of the next card info. At this astronomically high count you mention, the proper strategy was to hit, no question about it.

[Three]

Thanks Tarzan. That is a little surprising but on the lines of what my instinct said. Your count is amazing at being able to analyze any play quickly and precisely.

[Tarzan]

Grosjean has tables for this (flashing hit card basic strategy) but it is limited to exactly that, basic strategy with no considerations as to deck composition. I'm looking them over now.

[Dog Hand]

Here's the thing. This information serves no actual purpose other than academic observation. It's not like you are going to do anything at all other than stand on 19vsT and the EV will not drop far enough to warrant surrendering no matter what. May I ask about the origin of the question or why you wish to know this? It's at a lowly TC+2 or so that this becomes a negative expectation hand, with the more negative the count, the higher EV for the hand but regardless of what the EV is the playing decision for this hand never changes! It would take nearly a complete saturation of (T) in the remainder of the deck to surrender so that's out also. This is not information that will help your game at all, so it makes me curious as to why anyone would ask this particular question. Are you making a new and freaky blackjack trivia game?

Tarzan,

This information can also be useful to have if you're playing a sidebet called "House Money 21", which is described by the Wizard of Odds at the following URL: http://wizardofodds.com/games/blackj...c-HouseMoney21.

To answer the OP's question, AFTER the dealer has checked for BJ, 19 vs. X is +EV if the TC is <=+5 (HiLo), while BEFORE the dealer checks for BJ, it is NEVER +EV. For those with Green Chip access, the answer can be found from the August 2012 POM at this URL: http://www.bj21.com/greenchip/archiv...cgi?read=21208.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand